Category: Soccer
The Bourne Identity
A Google program has potentially become sentient, causing some to fret over the future of humanity. Are computers becoming aware of themselves and the world around them? This morning I googled Premier League Standings.
Indeed, there is a chance that Google programs are so sentient that they have reached the consciousness level of Arsenal internet troll. If so, that’s a dystopian future I can get behind.
During this period, I generally stick to O/U season points or standings place finish, but those are not ready yet. There are a few points of interest until then. Chelsea and Tottenham are essentially even money to finish 3rd it looks like. Depending on the specific bet they actually flip who is favorite at times.
To Win League: Tott (+1200), Chelsea (+1600) – Tott fave
Winner w/out Man City or L’pool: Chelsea (+175), Tott (+185) – Chelsea fave
Top London Team: Chelsea (+115), Tott (+115) – Tie
Seems a little weird, potentially exploitable. The other interesting one for me involves top goalscorer longshots. Son, despite sharing this title with Salah is only (+1000). Vardy (+3000), though he turns 36 mid-season, scored 15 goals in only 25 games last year. And Mitrovic (+3500) has proven Premier League success and scored a trillion goals last year…Will Haaland (+350) win it? Wouldnt be surprising, but his value at this price isnt great, and the recent examples of Bundesliga imports are poor. Salah (+450) will be sitting during World Cup which helps but he is one of 4 Liverpool players in the top 12 on this odds sheet. If Jesus (+2500) could finish a sandwich he’d be very interesting.
EPL 2021-2022 Plays
Leeds to make Champions League 12-1
Leeds to make Europa 4-1
Leeds OVER 52.5 Total Season Points
Prop: Son Heung-min to Score 15+ Goals + Che Adams to Score 10+ Goals -110
Best Promoted Team: Brentford +105
To be Relegated: Newcastle United +275; Southampton +500
EPL Today:
Brentford +285
This Things I Believe (2)
Steelers OLine
We can say with confidence the Steelers OLine is going to look much different this year than from units of the recent past. We are not pointing out anything new by noting the eye-opening collective departures of proven Pro-Bowl talent players DeCastro, Pouncey, and Villanueva, not to mention Ramon Foster retiring before the 2020 season. As a result of this turnover, some folks are predicting rough times for the Steelers offense, which struggled at times last year as it was, especially in the run game. Whoever lines up will obviously be tasked with protecting an aging QB often described as “statuesque.” If you take an important unit that performed poorly last year, and then strip it of essentially all its proven talent, it would seem bad times are almost inevitable. And then the dominoes knock each other over and Steeler short-sellers have Pittsburgh finishing 3rd or 4th in their division. An already subpar OLine is only going to be worse this year. Ben, who has been integral to the success of PIT over the years is going to get his 300 year-old ass bombarded routinely. He will get hurt (or at least be super ineffective), the offense will be a shell of itself, Pittsburgh will be a collective hot mess. All of these things might happen, but what I am looking to point out here is that this argument rests on not 1, but 2 assumptions – that the OLine unit will be inevitably super poor, and ultimately that will be a main factor in a possible Steeler downfall this year. Tomlin recently noted; “(Last year) We were last in the league in rushing. We have nowhere to go but up from certain aspects.” That team finished 12-4…Even if the OLine proves a borderline disaster (which is not a given), there still exists the chance it ultimately just doesnt really matter in the standings.
As I noted yesterday, the idea behind this particular series of blurbs is to stick to statements we can make that are essentially fact. The story line of a low-grade OLine causing the Steelers to plummet in the standings might prove largely accurate…but all we can say for certain is that the PIT OLine will be very different than in years past. The team recently signed former Pro Bowler Trai Turner at OG and I would imagine they will continue to pursue reinforcements.
This Things I Believe (1)
I am going to aim to write a daily blurb here. Anyone who stumbles upon this for whatever reason should be warned the aim for these posts will be to toss out ideas and thoughts, not to slam down winners…The main concept here will be to try to establish concepts that are believed to be true. I apologize if some of the issues here are widely known and discussed, I havent watched SportsCenter in an eon.
Blue Jays
I have been going thru team lineups pretty consistently the last couple of weeks and it is striking how Toronto hardly ever seems to diverge from its standard lineup. Virtually every other team accounts for hot streaks, or at the least righty-lefty matchup stuff…Toronto for the most part seems to go, “Oh, you say they are scratching that 22 year old lefty minor league call-up and are pitching deGrom today? Fair enough. No, I dont need an eraser, we’ll stick with whats on the card, thank you.” They simply dont care…You are going to face 5-6 very legit RH hitters right off the rip…I bet some pitchers almost do a double-take when Cavan Biggio steps up. It has obviously worked fine for them so far, interesting to see if they maintain this course as playoffs begin to approach.
UFC 264 + Copa America Final
UFC 264:
Tai Tuivasa -130
Stephen Thompson to win by Decision +150
Dustin Poirier to win by submission +450
PARLAY @ +150: Sean O’Malley -1000; Michel Pereira -180; Tai Tuivasa -130
Copa America Final:
Brazil vs Argentina OVER 2 -110
Euro 2020
EURO 2020 plays:
Group B
Belgium to finish top -150
Group C
North Macedonia finish bottom -200
Group D
England and Croatia Advance -130
Group E
Poland to NOT advance +350
Spain and Sweden to Advance +150
Props:
Hungary to be lowest scoring team +500
Antoine Griezmann to be highest French scorer +350
England to Semi-Final +135
England to be eliminated on PKs +400
Team with most cards: Portugal +1000 and Netherlands +1600
Final:
Belgium vs Germany +2500
Belgium vs France +1800
NHL BONUS:
NY Islanders vs Boston UNDER 5 +125
Quick Gambling Life Post/Question
Some day, someone with eons of time and a super computer needs to to compile the historical data on games like this. Games where the instant you hear the line 85-90% of the betting universe will pick the same side, and importantly, its the only game on in that sport. A game where a healthy team playing at home (doesnt mean as much at the moment I know) that has a better record, is playing a team in poor form; a game that is the only one in town and has a spread that will likely encourage action on the favorite. I went to 4-5 different gambling sites and, of course, all of them have essentially the same 2-1 Everton predicted victory, and of course, cover. Bottom-line question: If this game happens mid-day on Saturday vs solo on a Monday afternoon/evening, is there a marked difference in outcome in relation to spread? Is Southampton, historically, more likely to draw or win (cover) this match-up at this lonely time slot?
PL and NFL O/Us
I think there is a chance we are reaching a tipping point with PL/NFL totals in relation to O/Us. “There are attacking players in this league and maybe preseason and lack of working time plays a part.” -Lampard. Back in the post I made on NFL win totals and division stuff, I noted I kind of liked the Carolina Panthers this year but was staying away because “this is not the year to be counting heavily on rookies and the Panthers D will have more than a few of those running around.” Well those defensive players now have about a month and a half of advanced level studies. Obviously this is more complex than just practice time, the NFL is simply officiated differently than 20 years ago, when wide receivers were assaulted on a weekly basis and then got to watch replays of their life-spans being shortened on Monday Night Countdown. But for the purposes of keeping things simple, I expect goal/point totals to start dropping, even if only slightly, now that folks are better acclimated.
EPL Points Totals
Some absolutely preposterous juice action on a few of these season point totals. “Well we know Sheffield looked great and surprised last year but…” Debating a parlay involving Palace going down and Brighton staying up.
Leeds : 45.5 (U -162)
Liverpool : 85.5 (U -144)
Everton : 48.5 (O -274)
Burnley : 42.5
Arsenal : 64.5 (U -235)
Chelsea : 69.5 (O -164)
Wolves : 57.5
Sheffield : 52.5 (U -490)
Aston Villa : 38.5
Tott : 66.5 (U -210)
West Brom : 34.5
Fulham : 34.5
Newcastle : 37.5
West Ham : 40.5 (O -230)
Leicester : 60.5 (U -178)
Southampton : 51.5 (U -156)
Brighton : 42.5
Man City : 90.5
Man United : 72.5
Crystal Palace : 40.5
Miracle Covers COVID Special
We got a new podcast!
Lou (@miraclecovers) and Sean (@Seanismoney) talk about our new COVID world as it pertains to betting, our thoughts on the Champions League restart, why the NBA bubble is fun and our plays going into the playoffs, why MLB baseball is strange with no fans where no one under the age of 40 is watching, and why the NCAA sucks.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miracle-cover-covid-special
