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Random NFL Thoughts Go Here

Twitter actually, but this will do for now.

 I would far prefer the Titans and Jaguars chances of winning the AFC South if they were playing their backup quarterbacks instead of their starters.  Jake Locker probably has more in common with Tim Tebow than any other current NFLer.  Blaine Gabbert might be the 45th best starter in the league at the moment.  Chad Henne is in the low 30s at worst.

GB @ Seattle

 I am looking forward to betting Seattle week 3 on a Thursday night at home.  Hopefully the Pakcers will be 2-0 and Seattle looking all dysfunctional and 0-2.

One more divisional bet to include here.  KC to win the AFC West at +300.  This is essentially a parlay on San Diego and Denver’s Unders, two teams I dislike for Norv Turner and overrated reasons respectively.  I would be happy to get more action at this price.

NFL Bets To Date

Dallas Cowboys UNDER 9

I was sick the week we turned in bets last year, and it’s very possible the Cowboys were partially responsible.  The Cowboys under has been the most reliable bet since I started doing this in 2006.  I bet Dallas under 9.5 wins and they were 9-5 after week 15 and in line for the #2 seed and a week 1 bye.  They promptly scored 7 points at home next week against the Eagles and then lost at home again in week 17 against a 2-13 Lions team for the miracle cover.  That led to a last second field goal that did not go well.

Sean and I joke that this is the easiest annual bet to make and made fun of me for picking Dallas’s over last season.  In truth, Dallas has hit their over in 2007 with 13 wins and 2009 with 11.  Their number is consistently between 8.5 and 9.5.  I blame the lockout for last season, but it also took a series of unfortunate events, similar to 2006 for this under to hit.  It’s extremely difficult as an outsider to say that the epic collapses are endemic to a team and not merely unlucky, but because this team is on television all the time, everyone can see that the Cowboys are consistently the worst good team in the league. I have to post the video.

They routinely shift into their clogged toilet offense in the final 4-6 minutes of close games, often while leading, fail to convert for the 2-3 first downs or single score that would seal the game, and then often lose because their secondary was unable to cover or tackle anyone.

Most of that secondary has been replaced this season, but Brandon Carr coming over from KC has never been asked to be the #1 corner and the rookie Claiborne will likely have problems his first season.  (Patrick Peterson, a superior player out of the draft, was horrific as at corner for Arizona and only added value by his excellent punt returns). The even more immediate problem this season is that seemingly half the team is injured and it’s still August.  The offensive line has questions as well

This is clearly a work in progress. The expected starting guards, Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau, are at last on the field. Phil Costa is still working his way back, but David Arkin has at least become a possible solution at center, at least for a game or two. Doug Free seems to be having some problems. However, there are differing opinions as to just how big they are. On the O line, only Tyron Smith seems to be not only fully capable, but a standout player.

Here is a list of the Cowboys leading receivers from last season and their current status

While this isn’t quite Miami Dolphin territory if only because this group has the potential to be above average, it’s not looking great for week 1.  Combine this with the near certainty of turning at least one sure victory into a defeat and this is a bet I really like.  I have 9 wins but most books have 8.5 which is another plus.  Lastly there’s this:

Carolina Panthers to WIN NFC South +525

I couldn’t get the 550, but the Falcons and Saints are co-favorites here and while the styles are different, I don’t really see where the Panthers are appreciably worse than the Falcons aside from head coach.  That can be a big difference obviously and I think it might determine who ultimately wins this division.  The Saints don’t have a coach, the Falcons have a professional one and I don’t know what to think about Ron Rivera.  MLB Luke Kuechly is just  wonderful player and will have a Patrick Willis like impact on this defense.

Speaking of their defense, it was horrible last year, possibly even worse than the Rams as they suffered the same problem of having everyone get injured.  This in turn led to the special teams being terrible too.  Filling your roster each week with guys who were cut in training camp is generally not a path to success.  Assuming average health, this defense can’t be as bad as Atlanta’s and Carolina at least has a player who can get to the quarterback on a regular basis.  Likely over in the pickem pool, but a 100% bet here as I like getting better than 5:1 on what should be a 3-3.5:1 bet.

Oklahoma State Over 8.5 -135

I know nothing about college football, but hit on Stanford a season or two ago.  Blackmon and Weeden are the highest profile players to leave and are day 1 NFL starters.  I am betting here that whoever is left, and I can name no one on their roster, is competent enough to pickup all 6 “guaranteed” wins and go at least 3-3 versus the rest.  Baylor might push the guaranteed wins up as high as seven without Griffin as their defense was horrific, in which case I like this even more.

2012 NFL Season Win Totals & Division Odds

Lines posted from Pinnacle.  Unlike other books, Pinnacle doesn’t like to get middled, so they continue to adjust the juice on these lines as the money comes in rather than move the number.  So Miami is at 7 or 6.5 other places but 7.5 and -305 here.  It turns out looking incompetent on Hard Knocks, jettisoning talented veterans, starting a rookie QB who had problems with interceptions against Big-12 defenses and having your GM compared to Matt Millen minus a receiver fetish is enough to cause everyone and their immediate families to bet the under.  Who knew?

Arizona 7 (U-183)

Atlanta 9

Baltimore 10 (U-195)

Buffalo 7.5 (O-237)

Carolina 7.5

Chicago 9.5

Cincinnati 8.5 (U-224)

Cleveland 5.5 (U-194)

Dallas 9

Denver 8.5 (O-182)

Detroit 9.5 (U-194)

Green Bay 12 (U-208)

Houston 10 (O-196)

Indianapolis 5.5

Jacksonville 5.5

Kansas City 8

Miami 7.5 (U-305)

Minnesota 6

New England 12

New Orleans 10 (U-171)

NY Giants 9.5

NY Jets 8.5 (U-170)

Oakland 7

Philadelphia 10

Pittsburgh 10

San Diego 9 (U-175)

San Francisco 10

Seattle 7 (O-230)

St. Louis 6

Tampa 6

Tennessee 7 (O-160)

Washington 6.5

2011 NFL Season Win Totals

MGM posted these in Vegas on Tuesday ahead of the abbreviated free agency to take place this weekend.

NFC

South
New Orleans Saints 10 (Over +105, Under -125)
Atlanta Falcons 10.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5
Carolina Panthers 4.5

North
Green Bay Packers 11.5
Chicago Bears 9.5
Detroit Lions 7.5 (Over flat, Under -120)
Minnesota Vikings6.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

East
New York Giants 9.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Dallas Cowboys 9 (Over flat, Under -120)
Philadelphia Eagles 10 (Over -120, Under flat)
Washington Redskins 6.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

West
Seattle Seahawks 7 (Over flat, Under -120)
St. Louis Rams 7 (Over -120, Under flat)
San Francisco 49ers 8 (Over -120, Under flat)
Arizona Cardinals 6 (Over -120, Under flat)

AFC

South
Indianapolis Colts 10 (Over flat, Under -120)
Houston Texans 8 (Over -115, Under -105)
Jacksonville Jaguars 6
Tennessee Titans 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11 (Over flat, Under -120)
Baltimore Ravens 11
Cleveland Browns 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals 7.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

East
New York Jets 10 (Over flat, Under -120)
New England Patriots 11.5 (Over flat, Under -120)
Buffalo Bills 5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Miami Dolphins 8 (Over -105, Under -115)

West
Denver Broncos 6 (Over flat, Under -120)
San Diego Chargers 10
Oakland Raiders 7
Kansas City Chiefs 8 (Over flat, Under -120)

Early leans: Atlanta, NY Giants, Bungles UNDER Jacksonville, Arizona OVER. Arizona is contingent on them getting an actual living breathing QB upon which the line would revise upwards at least one win so I’d be comfortable making a small bet now. The do get six games versus the NFC West. Atlanta opens @CHI, PHI, @TB @SEA, GB after which they’ll be doing extremely well to be 3-2. No idea how this team is supposed to win 11 games.

Divisions: New Orleans EVEN, Rams +245, Oakland +425. The Niners are somehow a -125 favorite to win the NFC West over on Bookmaker. I’d like to be the house on that as they look to be the same mediocre team as the last couple of seasons. The Rams are a receiver and a safety away from being the division favorite. Be careful with the Ram and Lion OVERS (7 & 7.5). Depth is always an issue in the NFL and health is a skill. Some 15% of a team’s roster will end up on IR before the season ends and while there’s some luck involved in which players end up hurt, teams with depth like the Packers and Patriots are much better suited to deal with the inevitable injuries which is a partial reason for their league high totals. Given some of the players St. Louis and Detroit were trotting out on the field last year, I’m skeptical they’ll be able to build enough sustained depth. The overs or division bets aren’t necessarily poor bets, but they are riskier.

Lastly, Eli Manning needs to prep for plays like the one embedded below since the Giants cut three offensive linemen yesterday. Not sure who they are going to bring in, but they should hope to play better than this:

NFL Futures Note

Team A – Lost in 2010 Playoffs in 1st round.  Lost in 2011 Playoffs in 2nd round.

Team B – Lost in 2010 Playoffs in 3rd round.  Lost in 2011 Playoffs in 3rd round after beating Team A in 2nd round

For those of you who have not guessed yet, Team A is the Patriots and Team B is the Jets.  And yet, the Patriots are listed by Vegas at 7-1 to win the Super Bowl, and the Jets come in somewhere around 16.5.  In other words, do not think you are getting anything resembling good value with the Pats here.

Bears/Packers

Let’s talk about the Bears/Packers game.  The line of Packers -3.5 is pretty damn interesting.  There are several factors that Vegas had to deal with in making the line, the most important probably being that essentially every one and their mother seems to bet the Packers.  I’ve brought this example up a few times on this site but the classic case was last year when their road playoff game against the Cardinals went from Cards -3 to Pack -2.5.

When I got over the shock of seeing a road #6 seed as a favorite in a conference championship, my thought was Vegas simply said, “You know what, we know you’re going to bet Green Bay anyway, here.  Deal with this.  Minus three, Bitches.”  And bitches did deal, the original line I saw had GB -3 and the next thing it’s -3.5 and even -4 at some places.  This in spite of the fact that the teams split the season series, and the Packers only won the final game in Green Bay, a game they had to win, and a game that meant nothing to Chicago, 10-3.

There is one crucial stat that GB supporters can look to and that’s point differential.  Did you know that the Packers were second in the NFL in point differential at +148?  This with Aaron Rodgers missing time and/or half woozy at points during the season.  And now he’s healthy.  This is where people seriously betting GB make their case.  The Packers, when healthy this year, play so well, that you have to ignore the ridiculousness of betting against a home underdog, that this Packer team is one of those special teams where guidelines like home field advantage don’t really apply.  Hence why they walk into Chicago a favorite, as they walked into Atlanta as a pick ‘ em against a well rested team that had beaten them two months earlier.

For my money (and I mean that, I have 50 dollars on this with JaPan) I am going with Chicago.  I actually grabbed them at +3 thinking the line would only move in the direction of a pick em, oops.  I could see Cutler throwing 4 INTs, one or more for a pick 6, and GB winning 38-14.  But at the end of the day I think of this game as being pretty even from a match-up perspective, with the key differences being the game is in Chicago and I am getting 3 points right from the kickoff.  We’ll see what happens.  The team Green Bay finished second to in point differential?  The Patriots, oops.

As for Jets/Pitt, my gut is to like the Jets at +3.5.

Week 17 Picks

Steelers -6 (-125) I just see Pittsburgh, with a “win-and-get-in” situation for the bye and the division, take care of a struggling Browns team at home today.  Plus out of all the lines where this type of situation occurs, this one is the most reasonable to bet on, even with the juice.

Falcons -13 John Fox just got canned, the Falcons lost a very winnable game on Monday night versus the Saints, and homefield is on the line for Atlanta.  You know Mike Smith must of gave these guys hell in the meetings this week watching the Saints game film, especially on offense where they had problems running the ball.  Methinks they take it out on the Panthers today, and be motivated enough to get a big lead to pull starters in the 4th.

Packers/Bears Over 42 Resting or no resting, these teams will score a lot today, especially with how good Rodgers looks at home vs the Giants this week, and the Bears getting big plays in between 5-6 plays of superior mediocrity on offense led by Jay Cutler.  Plus Cutler COULD throw a few TDs to the Packers D, too.  And you throw in the Devin Hester, but I doubt that because the Packers were dumb enough to kick to him on Week 4 and paid the price

4 team Teaser @ 3-1 (You can also add the Packers -4 in this one @ 4.5-1 if the Falcons game is already decided as then the Bears will just be resting people):

Steelers PK

Colts -4

Ravens -4

Falcons -8

For those of you paying attention…

And you know who you are…sean is lighting it up.  If you look at Sean’s picks it is amazing how common sense his approach is.  Talking about jets/bears over, “too much talent on the field here to not score.”  Discussing the Packers, “Green Bay, IMO, is just TOO good to NOT make the playoffs.”  So what does he do, he bets accordingly.  He saw the same line we all did, Ravens -3.5 at Cleveland and while we were all rationalizing how the Browns would cover, Sean bet the Ravens.  Well done, Sean.

Week 16 Picks

GB -3 vs NYG

Eli Manning (who NEVER talks) spoke up in the locker room this week, telling his team to shake off that last epic fail of a loss vs Philly and speaking the importance of this game vs Green Bay, who looked awesome on Sunday night and probably would of won if Rodgers started.  Green Bay, IMO, is just TOO good to NOT make the playoffs (and they arn’t coached by Norv Turner), so I’m gonna take the pack here to take care of business at home and grab that final 6th playoff spot.

Teaser: NYG/CHI O 30 + HOU/DEN O 43

Even though a Rex Ryan led defense is always ready to play “foot-ball“, too much talent on the field here to not score. Houston and Denver are starting turnstiles on their defensive lines (minus Mario Williams) vs two teams who can run the ball with anybody with Foster and Tebow.

I mean ,the Jets are just destined to make the AFC Championship game vs the Pats, where they are losing 35-10 i nthe 4th quarter as fans chant, “smell our feet!”, right?

Rams -3

Because I think the football gods will NOT allow a 7-9 team to get into the playoffs (Imagine that line!).