Category: NFL
NFL Season Wins 2013
Back temporarily after a life break because as much as we wish it were the case, gambling comes in a solid 2nd or 3rd on the life priority scale. I’m traveling again soon so baseball is likely done for me on the season, but we’ll see how it goes now that fantasy drafts are completed.
Quickly for the uninitiated, Pat and I pick five teams with confidence scoring for Over or Under the Season Wins Pinnacle line. Winner gets a pub crawl and the loser also gets a pub crawl. It’s a pretty sweet system. Related, Sean and I both agree that betting on failure is a lot more rewarding. Forward!
5) Oakland Raiders UNDER 5.5
I’ll see if Pat will take my action on worst team in the NFL which would payout much better than the -229 currently on Oakland here. I would be shocked if this over hit.
4) San Diego Chargers UNDER 7.5
The most succinct paragraph I could find on the 2013 Chargers
San Diego Chargers. Let’s review: this team finished 22nd in offensive DVOA this year, with the worst adjusted sack rate in the league, and their major offseason fix was adding Danny Woodhead. They drafted D.J. Fluker to help protect the immobile Philip Rivers at right tackle. I think D.J. Fluker is a guard. They installed King Dunlap at left tackle. Nobody thinks King Dunlap is a left tackle. They lost promising hybrid endbacker Melvin Ingram for the season with an ACL tear, and their solution was to call up Dwight Freeney. That would be awesome if it was 2003. It is not 2003. Perpetually injured Derek Cox is their No. 1 cornerback, draft question mark Shareece Wright is ostensibly the No. 2, and offseason waiver claim Johnny Patrick and camp cut Richard Marshall are the depth at the position. The Raiders are a bigger mess, but there’s no chance the Chargers are winning eight games when the only phase of the game they can claim as a strength is stopping the run.
3) Cincinnati Bengals OVER 8.5
Like Sean, I like the Bungles this season.
2) Carolina Panthers OVER 7
Cam Newton > Ron Rivera I hope.
1) New York Jets UNDER 6.5
I don’t like this nearly as much as others do, but given my lack of NFL following this offseason I am lacking any more teams I have a strong opinion about.
Over Easy
I think Collinsworth during last nights incredibly long game (only outlasted by the Yankees-Red Sox game that lasted to the 11th) said it best: defenses are going to have a hard time early on, especially when the weather is warm, to keep up with hurry up offenses this season. For Manning, it makes sense: he’s been running it his whole life, has great weapons on the outside, and many teams find it foreign physically to keep up in the rare Mile high air. Add the “Kevin Ogletree Award” winner of 2013 Julius Thomas in the mix, and Denver might average not only 33.5 points at home, but 30 overall (I think its only been done 3 times).
That being said, I am bullish on overs this week, especially in games in nice weather:
Falcons at Saints Over 54 -110 (now at 55 -111, could go to 54.5 -115)
In da Dome, Payton is back, neither team has much of a pass rush, and both teams are loaded on offense. Plus, these two teams hate each other. This could be the game of the day.
New England at Buffalo Over 49-116 (now 51 even)
Brady comes out and tries to match Peyton Manning’s (who I have in 3 fantasy leagues) record day. Plus the Bills are missing Safety Stephon Gilmore (a former Gowin Alumnus of the South Carolina Gamecocks) as well as Jarius Byrd (in trade rumor) being questionable with a foot injury. I’ll also probably tease this.
NY Giants versus Dallas Over 49.5 -105 (this will move wildly before kickoff)
NBC/NFL will ensure that this game also takes 4.5 hours (as well as Garrett throwing on every down).
KC at Jacksonville Over 42.5 -110
Well, why the fuck not! These teams are due to play in a shootout by default at some point, right? And Andy Reid is an offensive genius….you should see this guy work on a rack of ribs!
Miami at Cleveland 41 -110
Just a test, as UConn’s Jim Calhoun would say, “Not a dime” on this game. If you think on betting on anything in this game, you should re-assess your life immediately and probably call up Gambler’s Anonymous at 1-800-IAMAFUCKINGDEGEN
(BTW: Parlay of all of these is $25 to win $610…does anyone have a cell phone?)
Carolina ML +156
I’m intrigued here because we’re at home, with a decent QB (Newton has ALOT to prove this year), nice weather, and the whole “West Coast-to-East Coast” trend (which got broken this year, but I think that is more of an outlier). Does Seattle have the best defense in the NFL? Maybe. But they are missing players due to suspension and they are young so its a defense which will improve over the year. Also since I have Lynch in 2 fantasy leagues, this is a nice hedge. I just am always worried Ron Rivera steps on his dick….although, he’s going up against Pete Carroll, so that could be a wash.
Good luck, all: I look forward to hearing Pat Darts’ rationale when the subject of taking the Raiders (+374 at IND) and Terrelle Pryor on the road, comes up on Sunday.
A New Season
As the 2013 NFL season approaches, it’s a clean slate for everybody. You know, like when a coach calls a timeout before an opposing FG….and the kicker misses the FG.
I have various future action this year:
Cincinnati (+215, now to +200) to win AFC North
I’m counting on a Lewis-less Baltimore decline (also, their slot WR and backup tight end combing age would be eligible for Medicare), a depth deprived Steelers team (with no offensive line), and the poor Browns to contribute to one of the weaker divisions of the year. I believe Cincy, on paper: has the NFLs 2nd best defense (behind Seattle), unique weapons on the outside in Gresham and AJ Green (the second best WR in the NFL) and they are deep in the RB department. Their second half schedule is SUPER weak too. They might start the year 2-3 or 1-4 and finish 11-5.
Chargers Under 7.5 (-125)
Fuck Philip Rivers. That is all.
Here’s also some random UFC action tonight (hint: bet fighters FROM Brazil fighting IN BRAZIL vs fighters who AREN’T); I’ll post my NFL picks later in the week
The SuperPowers: Mayock and Johnson do the 1994 Grey Cup
Amazing stuff here; Gus mus love him a rouge.
Mayock and Johnson 1994 Grey Cup
Things we’re rooting for:
The Heat to lose Game 6 so I can bet my BR on them in Game 7.
Bruins first to score in Game 1 on the EDF vs Pittsburgh (+110)
Thiago Silva +170 vs Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante on UFC on FUEL TV 10
Weekend Plays
We won our NFL Draft under, a life first for me, with 12 SEC players taken. Player #12 didn’t go until the 32nd pick so our under 13 was good. It was looking difficult for there to be 14 so while there was a risk of a push, it didn’t seem likely to go over. It also turned out that under two QBs was a very solid play as maybe NFL teams are getting smarter and not taking crappy players at QB high in the draft anymore.
In baseball, I am now sure at this point that my filters are too stringent so I will tinker with the system setup some more. Our lean last night in Cahill won but went from -130 to -135 before start time. Two plays today:
Cleveland +145 @ KC (Kazmir/Santana)
SF @ SD Even (Lincecum/Cashner)
I will be away on Saturday so likely no plays over the weekend, but one in MLS I will post early and that is San Jose +150 away to Chivas.
Debating the under on DC/Columbus even though it is -150.
Blah
Not much happening this week and it’s been busy at work as well. I’ve missed a few bets with the day games and nothing at night has looked any good at all. The one bet I would have made was on the Cubs a few days back when they lost in 13. Still it’s better to not do anything than to do something monetarily harmful, so I’m not going to be bothered too much. I kind of like Cahill for Arizona tonight but need to see lineups and the public numbers before betting.
One play on the NFL Draft tonight
Total SEC Players Picked in 1st Round Under 13 -250 2u
There should be an MLS play somewhere for Saturday.
NFL Plays
Saints ML +112
Jax Jags +3.5 -106
Bills +3 -115
Browns ML +116
Just looked at those last 3 picks. Jags, Bills, Browns ML. That is Murderer’s Row, ’27 Yankees type stuff. Was my keyboard laughing at me while I was typing that? Likely more lunacy to follow.
NFL Plays
Buffalo Wild Wing commercials, I realized what’s messed up about them. They only show people where their team is winning. They never show the Cleveland Buffalo Wild Wings, where conversations go something like this,
Guy One “So remind me why the fuck we came here.”
Guy Two “I could be working on my lawn right now.”
At any whoots, I think if the Giants, ie The Most Ever Team Schizophrenic (had to stretch to get METS) have shown us anything these days it is that the final score is going to be either 34-7 (infamous) Giants or 17-10 Cleveland. Those are the only possible outcomes. What both of these results have in common…they both hit the under, the only safe bet going. Cleveland is going to rely on Trent Richardson and that is that. With “that” said, the under is currently 43 and I am assuming it will only go higher as time gets nearer to kick-off. I will update with the final number but I will assuredly be taking the under. Other stuff.
Cincy and the Under
Wash and the Under
Philly Under
And the Giants under hit 44. As i write this, T Richardson scored before time started on the clock so my bet is already rock solid. Good luck, bitches
NFL Plays
I think I am 1-8 in my pick em league right now. Forward! Those picks…
Titans (+12) @ Houston
Carolina (+7) @ Atlanta
NE Pats @ Buffalo (+4)
And some side degeneracy…
Seattle @ St LouisUnder39.5
Almost certainly more to follow…
