Category: NFL
Wednesday
Both plays were losers yesterday, with the total getting smushed by a 103 point effort by Wisconsin. I went back and checked and Wisconsin put up 99 against Prarie View A&M in their 2011 opener and there was nothing more than an odd 90 point game against other hapless opponents over the past 10 seasons. In our three totals plays so far, two have been off by literally 50 points and the third was a one point winner. I’m going to guess there’s nothing conclusive in that.
Tonight’s total is on a snoozer, Amerian @ Ohio St. Under 127
In fake plays that will probably lose: Tulsa +6
Nothing remotely close in hockey tonight. In other news I took some early action this morning for maybe the first time ever and got Saints +7 -115 for their game at Atlanta tomorrow. The line has spiked all the way to 9.5 or 10 in some places as everyone and their extended families is taking the New Orleans. There is zero reason to bet New Orleans at this point if you haven’t already, and I’ll be looking for some creative way to have a middle open instead of being forced to cheer for the Saints, which being from Atlanta I can’t actually do.
NFL Plays
For the record, these were my Week 11 picks. As we shall I am developing a hard-on for 2nd half bets. For anyone who has not experienced this you should do yourself a favor and sit in a Vegas casino as these lines are posted. You will never see crazy line fluctuations in your life like these. A line will start as a pick ’em and move to someone being a 3 point favorite in a minute…
Ravens +3 +113 @ 14
Raiders +10 +100 @ 14
Browns/Bengals Under 40 -110 @ 16
Ravens/Bears Under 40.5 -105 @ 14
Redskins +5 -108 @ 14
Redskins ML +120 @ 14
Browns -.5 -110 @ 15
Steelers ML +121 @ 14
4:00
San Diego @ Miami Over 44.5 -110 @ 17
Packers @ NY Giants ML -177 @ 66
Late Game
First score of game Non-TD +153 @ 22 (Obv)
MNF
Panthers -3 -110 @ 22
If you have been playing my action you are up somewhere like +125 Units for the month. Just saying. And yes, thats a bullshit thing to say when posting picks 2 days late
Monday
Fun day yesterday with lots of winners, hope some of you were able to follow along. Only the late, late play on Minnesota and teaser were losers thanks to the Falcons getting back to their heritage and losing horribly at home for no real reason at all. I doubled up on the Miami play and long time readers know that the Chargers are my 2nd favorite team to bet against (Dallas being #1) so that was an added bonus.
One NFL game tonight and Carolina is the side to be on. The line unfortunately won’t be moving off of 3, so I will most likely pass, but the game opened at 1 and anything up to 2.5 would be good value. Not a guarantee by any stretch, but at the very least there is no compelling reason to take New England.
There should be at least one and maybe even two hockey games tonight. I’ll update later in the evening. Season totals below…
Tracking plays in NCAA hoops are down to 0-2-2 -2.2
NCAA Hoops Totals are 2-0 +2.0 Those are real plays, albeit not for a whole lot relative to the other sports.
NCAA Football: 7-8 -1.37
NFL Teasers 1-3 -2.6
NHL 8-7 +4.01
NFL: 10-5 +5.31
EDIT: Calgary is the only hockey play tonight Flames +135
Sunday Funday
Two winners yesterday as Miss St. and the basketball under both easily covered and a push again on the tracking basketball play.
Lots of NFL plays today:
Miami +2.5 (Adding onto Miami +1 from yesterday)
Buffalo +2.5
Pittsburgh +3
Bookmaker garbage teaser: ATL +8.5, Buffalo +8.5, Denver -1.5
College Hoops:
Stony Brook +12.5
Michigan/Iowa State Under 148
NHL:
Columbus +145 @ Ottawa
UPDATE: NFL Minnesota +13
Weekend Picks
NFL:
Baltimore and Chicago Under 44 (-105)
Teaser: Seattle (-13) and Denver (-8) and NY Giants (-6)
Oakland +9 (is it me or is this line a bit too big?)
Cleveland +6 and in teaser with Under (42)
I might also take Tampa in a pick’em after everybody and their mother bet them last Monday night versus the not-so-Incognito Dolphins. But it depends on whether Tony Gonzalez plays or not.
UFC:
Ali “Puncher King” Bagautinov +130
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -250
Now I leave you with the “Own Goal of the Year” in basketball:
Friday
We bet and/or didn’t bet on a bunch of pushes and coin flips yesterday. Indy Miracle Covered or Miracle Pushed depending on your line. I ended up passing but my comments make me look smart so I’ll try not to get injured patting myself on the back. William and Mary pushed on +17, scoring only a single point in the last four minutes. Columbus lost to Boston in overtime and Tulsa covered losing by 11.
More nothingness in hockey tonight, and there’s nothing particularly close either with the public numbers just not lining up with what I like to see. One tracking play in hoops and it’s Florida Atlantic +31 at Duke. We’re 0-0-1 to start the season but unlike the NHL, we don’t get any loser points. I’m hoping for a push again tonight.
Amateur football and other things tomorrow.
Thursday
I’m still under the weather, so pardon more than the usual lack of cohesion…
NFL tonight is Colts @ Titans. Everyone is on Indy by a 4.5:1 ratio, but the line has moved around quite a bit this week between TEN +1 and TEN +3. It’s currently at 2.5. If I can find 3 I’ll take Tennessee, but if not I will pass. I could be convinced to take the Titans in a smaller play and/or in any picks contests should they be available.
NHL has one game that is on the fence that I’m going to play and that’s Columbus +155 @ Boston. I would prefer the total to be 5.5 instead of 5, but that’s never going to happen with Boston’s league best defense, but I will let the 13% public betting number and reverse line move take priority here. Plus we haven’t had a play in nearly a week.
“Amateur” College Football, I would take Tulsa tonight at 14 but not 13.5 or 13. Not going to stick around withing on the line to move on that.
Lastly, College Basketball, I don’t know how to bet these but I will track my plays here as best I can. One to start with tonight, William & Mary +17
Good luck out there.
NFL Plays
The bet to make on Thursday was the Over. Negative amounts of D at times.
Bills/Steelers Under 42.5 +100 16
Lions -1 -103 27
Side note to be examined in the future, pretty fucked up lines here for 1 Q
| Sun 11/10 | 215 | Cincinnati Bengals | -0.5 +156 | +101 | Over 7.5 +105 | ||
| 10:00 AM | 216 | Baltimore Ravens | +0.5 -177 | -114 | Under 7.5 -118 |
Bengals 1st Half ML -105 19
All for this moment. Made add more before GameTime
****UPDATE****
2nd Half Bet Raiders/Giants Under 21 +100 @ 15
****UPDATE THE DEUCE****
Positives so far today. 4 o’clock plays
PARLAY 49ers -6 -105 Texans +3.5 -104 @ 14
****3rd Update****
Bucs ML +118 @ 14
NFL Sunday
Ugly day yesterday with two terrible teams losing again, giving back a lot of our win from Friday. In the NFL today, the short list is looking quite sparse. Carolina, Atlanta, San Diego and Dallas are the only options using just the public numbers, and there are a number of reason why those teams are particularly unpopular. Atlanta is out because of their heavy line move and I really don’t see anything on the Chargers that warrant betting them.
Carolina and Dallas are interesting for a couple of reasons. They are obviously anti-public teams or they wouldn’t be on the shortlist, but they both also had a reverse line move this week, and their opponents, SF and NO are the #1 and #2 picks in the Hilton contest this week. For those unaware, the top 5 picks each week in the Hilton contest should be avoided at all costs and possibly bet the other way as the record on those plays is something like 11-33 so far. Any one factor doesn’t make a team worth betting, but when three or more variables start pointing the same way, I start paying attention.
NFL
Carolina +6 -115 @ San Francisco
Dallas +6 -105 @ New Orleans
I would not take 5.5 on either of these.
Bookmaker Garbage Line Teaser
NYG -1, IND -2 -120
Nothing in hockey today.
Rebound
Tough last week but you can only win if you bet more!
NCAA:
Texas A&M v Miss State Over 68
UFC:
Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort vs Dan “Hendo” Henderson – Total Rounds 2.5 Over at -110
NFL:
Teaser: Baltimore +1 and Under 44 (a hedge versus my Cincy win AFC North bet)
Dallas at New Orleans Over 54
Denver (-7) at San Diego, the Over 58, and both in teaser
Chicago (pick) vs Detroit
I now present the worst call of the year (even worse than the penalty kick Chelsea FC’s Ramires got today in the 94′ versus West Brom to salvage a 2-2 tie, thanks to a Eden Hazard PK):
