Category: NFL
NFL Week 2
JAX +6 (-115)
Me and Lou will keep hitting that “DO NOT PASS” line
NYG -3 (+110)
Yes, I am a sucker
SF -7
I made the mistake betting on Jay Cutler in a teaser last week. I will not this week. Also a hedge with my season under 49ers bet. Also:
Report: "75 percent chance" Marshall, Jeffery out for Sunday's game http://t.co/AOolscjYwZ
— NBC Chicago (@nbcchicago) September 14, 2014
TB -6 (+110)
#gamblingadvisoryalert on St. Louis. We might have to bet against them every week until they figure things out. Probably worst team in the league, I have friend who has them at 50-1 to be worst record, THAT’S looking good. The main problem? QB. When they lost Bradford, they lost “1 of 64” meaning one of the top starter or backup QBs in the NFL. Now? I am not sure they have 1-of-108.
TEASER:
NO -7
GB -8
ATL +5
+275
and
JAX +6
SF -1
PHI/IND OVER 54
+275
NFL Plays
Falcons @ Bengals Over 48.5 -108
Cowboys @ Titans -3 -119
NFL Sunday
I’ll get a summary up here in the next few days. When I went to sleep last night, I was near certain I’d be taking San Diego this afternoon, but their line has dropped two points in the interim and that’s too much of a line move to deal with. Same thing with Minnesota, where +3 turned into +6 with the Peterson thing and it’s now back to +3.5. One day I will have the confidence to make those kinds of plays during the week, but for now I am slumming it on Sunday morning with the rest of the degenerates in America.
Browns +5 and Giants -1 are my plays for the 1:00 games. Giants are a leaner in baseball but Kershaw is involved :(
NCAAF Plays
More to come! All plays @ 16
Tonight’s Teaser
PIT +3 and Under 44.5
I feel this will be a classic low scoring and boring PIT v BAL tilt like usual. Nevermind the whole craziness with the Ray Rice stuff.
Although interesting tidbit from Betlabs about these Thursday night Games:
Since 2005 NFL favorites have gone 48-37 ATS (+9.22 units) with 4 days of rest or fewer. #Ravens
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) September 11, 2014
We also have our “parlay of the season” candidate so far:
Bettor takes all NFL UNDERs on $10 9-leg parlay, wins $4,000 from the @WilliamHillUS sports book at the Max Casino. pic.twitter.com/BLJdTJFzRv
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) September 10, 2014
Monday
We went pushy-pushy here as Atlanta came back to tie and then win against New Orleans in OT while Jacksonville set their game on fire in Philadelphia and was miracle covered at the end. It was an excellent day for Sportsbooks all around as Chicago, New England, New Orleans, Denver and Pittsburgh all failed to cover and/or lost outright and all had over 70% exposure with the Eagles being the only +70 team to cover. I mentioned to Sean and Pat yesterday that I really should have taken Buffalo as well but cest la vie and all that.
Two baseball plays tonight:
Cardinals (Miller) @ Reds (Axelrod) +112
Orioles (Gonzalez) @ Red Sox (Kelly) -110
One interesting game tonight in the NFL and it’s the late one with the Cardinals moving from -3 to -2.5. Since it’s before week 3, I’m free to ignore the public numbers not being quite to my liking :) We’ll see if I take the game or not.
NFL Over/Unders
That time of year again. I am just going to list my picks, I will likely dive into rationales at another point. Let’s see what we like…
Tampa Bay Bucs Over 7
Colts Under 9.5
Cowboys Under 8
New York Jets Over 7
Cardinals Over 7.5
Sunday
Two.NFL plays and I am too hungover to look at baseball:
Jacksonville +10.5 -115
Atlanta +3 -103
Friday
No baseball again tonight. Not much in the way of leaners either. Line moves are much more subtle now that a lot of folks are back onto football. I’ll post my annual public service announcement here for NFL which is that any public numbers or metrics are no good until week 3, and week 1 regardless of what anyone says is mostly a crapshoot. Tread lightly…or not
