Category: NFL
Monday
All winners yesterday except for the NBA which I am horrible at. Phoenix, which is in Arizona, got a 2-1 win in Edmonton to put us up to 14-13 +4.4. We had two NFL winners including the Rams moneyline to get us to 10-9 +3.85 for the season. Some plays and leans tonight:
Tampa and the Rangers are about to get started in New York. We have a very marginal lean on the Rangers but am passing on the game. Tampa is an excellent hockey team.
NFL is interesting as the public is all over Pittsburgh just like in the Jets game, so the please do not bet the Steelers tonight. I am however taking a rare total and that’s PIT/TEN OVER 46.
In soccer, despite not having any public betting data to work with, I have a play for tomorrow afternoon in a friendly: England @ Scotland +0.5 -130
Lastly, NBA because I’m an idiot: Chicago +5.5 @ Clippers
Sunday
I am hungover. Totals were all losers yesterday. NFL:
Rams +10 -123
Rams to win outright +375
Chiefs -1
Eagles are an option at 4. Florida and Arizona are on the shortlist for hockey tonight
NBA because I’m an idiot. Nuggets +110
UPDATE: Arizona +110
UPDATE 2: I meant to write Phoenix to indicate I was taking the Coyotes and not the Cardinals. Sorry I am unable to keep my city & state monikers accurate.
NFL Week 11
Tampa Bay +7.5 (-115) at Washington
Way too many points.
Seattle at KC Under 43.5 (-115)
This was at 42 earlier this AM; two good defenses, two average offenses, and it’s REALLY cold in KC today.
Arizona Pick vs Detroit
I have a pants tent in high anticipation that I’ll get to bet against Jim Caldwell, Stafford, and this talented trainwreck of a team in the playoffs in January.
SF -4.5 at NYG
This is part 1 of many for a hedge towards our SF Win Totals Under 10.5
Eagles +6 (-120) at GB
2012 Sean: “I will not take Mark Sanchez on the road. I will not take Mark Sanchez on the road. I will not take Mark Sanchez on the road. ”
2014 Sean: “80% of the money is on Green Bay, I have to take Mark Sanchez on the road.”
Denver -10 at St Louis
Shaun Hill sucks.
TEASER (+175):
NE +3.5
DEN -10
NO -7.5
NHL BONUS:
FL at ANA Under 5 (EVEN)
Tuesday Leans
2-0 with betting this Celtics Over theory so far, still under 200 so going with it again tonight Over at 197 (-115) vs OKC
Also have an early NFL lean: took Broncos -10 at EVEN on Monday; Shaun Hill has been named the starter (whoo hoo!) so I now love the Broncos here (line is +9 on pinnacle, great news if I can get this on Bovada). The only results I see on this game are Broncos by 2 TDs or more…..or a Rams win (they do have a good defense but Shaun Hill does suck). So if you lean St. Louis, take the ML IMO.
AND BTW, this line is for Pat:
Monday
An okay Sunday for us, winning on the Jets but losing on the Raiders, with the moneyline play pushing the season into positive territory. Toronto was a late decision and was a winner as well, and we even passed on the Bears Sunday night in another good decision. NFL is now 8-9 +0.85 and NHL is a similarly mediocre 10-11 +1.8.
Not much happening tonight with only two hockey games and Panthers-Eagles in NFL. Hopefully a few more plays tomorrow.
NFL Week 10
This was a tough week to pick; not a lot of big plays here, just enough to hit my bonus on the site I bet on (as well as the fact that I have a gambling problem).
Pittsburgh -6 (EVEN) at NYJ
I can’t stop betting against Mike Vick
Jacksonville +7.5 (-110) vs DAL
Let’s start our QB who has a back problem after an 8 hour INTL flight. I can see Dallas losing this game lol
Baltimore -10 (EVEN) vs TEN
Mettenberger gets thrown to the wolves today
MIA at DET Under 44
2 really good defenses and 2 really average offenses = a game that probably could help one take a nap
TEASERS:
BAL -10, GB -7, ARI -7, PIT -6
SEA -10, OAK +13*
*also agree with Lou on Oakland and might take them once 4:00pm rolls around. They are playing hard every week.
Sunday
An 0-2 hockey day for us as both the Rangers and Avs were one goal losers, Colorado being done in by an unnecessary Nathan MacKinnon boarding major. Tulane won their game against Houston as a 17 point underdog so good for them.
Today is a day to attempt to open a Bovada account to get action down on Jets +6. It’s a 2.5 point swing down to the sharper Pinnacle line and the public is predictably all over Pittsburgh. Please do not bet on the Steelers in any capacity today. My plays:
Jets to win outright +164
Hopefully some Jets +6 -115
Oakland +11.5
Oakland to win outright +500
One other possible game is Chicago tonight. Nothing in NBA or NHL today.
UPDATE: I lied Toronto +115
TNF Thoughts
I’ve been betting TNF pretty heavily this year; smashing both the over and the favorites (esp at home) fairly hard. I’ve been rewarded with a great ROI as a result (sans the NE-Jets lean; this game is a “rivalry” game along with Saints/Falcons and Washington/Cowboys; the record don’t matter when these teams meet, especially in Foxboro where the Jets play hard).
I don’t have any lean on the teams themselves tonight; both are pretty craptastic (do you know this is the first time both Cincy and Cleveland have faced each other and both teams were over .500 since 1987?). But what I *love* tnoight is the under (46 at -110). A few thoughts:
I bet the season under on the Browns (5.5) hoping that Mike Pettine would help bring this team down along with the Johnny Football QB turmoil. Hoyer has looked OK and the Browns schedule so far has to be the worst in the league. What I didn’t expect, and Lou mentioned this before the year: the Browns defense is pretty good. It might even be top-5 good. They have the 2nd best CB in the game this year in the super duper Joe Haden (#1 is Pat Peterson of the Cardinals; a big reason they are 7-1 right now), a decent front 7 that still has produced despite losing one of the best LBs inthe game in D’Qwell Jackson to the Colts, and Pettine has shown to be an outstanding defensive head coach (as his absence from his last employer, the Jets, has reared its head; they have sucked in the secondary this year. It doesn’t help their #2 CB is a converted safety).
The Browns offense on the other hand? Awful. Just awful. They have an average professional QB, they change RBs every week, their #1 WR is Miles Austin thanks to Josh Gordon smoking the reef, and they are missing both their #1 TE (Cameron) and one of the best Centers in the game, Alex Mack. Pettine’s coaching decisions are also pretty wary on this side of the ball, as evidenced here.:
The Bengals, on the other hand, play down to their competition each and every single week. They have nagging injuries to their #1 RB (Bernard) and #1 WR (Green). Green is playing tonight, but he’s basically just been a decoy over the last few weeks for guys like Mohammed Sanu. Cincy’s defense *is* a top 10 defense: but only when healthy. Vontaze Burfict is one of the best 3 down LBs in the game; he’s also one of its dirtiest, which leans tackling with the crown of your helmet. He’s had several concussions this year. The Bengals are also quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who the crowd was ready to turn on last week when he almost gave the game away to Jacksonville AT home (if only thanks to a Jeremy Hill 155 yard running day).
The weather will also have a 50% chance of rain, 43 degrees, and winds at 10-15 mph. 75% of the money is on the over (at -105). The loser of this game, especially Cleveland, is out of the playoff hunt. Therefore it will be played with that grind it out intensity. It will also be craptastic and low scoring because I can’t think of any other way these two teams play. I also like the over in punts, whatever that is.
NHL BONUS:
Tonight's #Browns #Bengals game is receiving more bets (54,052) than all 10 NHL games combined (43,899).
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) November 7, 2014
Florida +135 (agreed with Lou here! Do you know they lead the NHL in least allowed 5-on-5 goals?)
Winnipeg +155 (2-1 betting on the other Jets this year. They face Pittsburgh tonight, a tough task, but who gets up for a game in WINNIPEG?)
Thursday
Both basketball plays were losers yesterday as Denver was not close to winning at all. The system backtested well so we’ll stick with it for the time being. Vancouver, Winnipeg and Florida are on the shortlist for hockey tonight from west to east. Not sure yet which games will end up being plays but I’l try and get them up 30 minutes before gametime.
NFL tonight is Browns at Bungles. I liked Cincy at -6 but not at 6.5 or 7 which is where the line will close. Good luck.
FLORIDA +135 @ Philadelphia
UPDATE Vancouver +120 @ San Jose
Monday
1-0 with our Rams play yesterday and a big swing and a miss not getting in Miami before it moved to -3. It was probably playable there but I was nitty with the line move and missed out on an easy win. Up to a merely below-average 7-8 for -0.15 on the season. Nothing in hockey gain with a solo game tonight that’s already well underway and nothing over the weekend either. NHL is 7-7 +2.45 for the season. No bet on Giants-Colts tonight and we’ll hope for some action tomorrow.
