Category: NFL
NFL Week 17
Looks like crap for betting purposes. Titans are easily the best game on the list today and that’s not saying much. We’ll see if they get up to 9 or something before gametime. Chicago/Minnesota Over has been pushed out of range and I’m not overly excited about SD/KC over 41.
Yesterday was excellent as we went 5-0 in bowl games, 1-0 on NBA and 1-1 in hockey. NBA should have been 2-0 as I completely forgot to play Indiana who won very easily over Brooklyn. Otherwise a near perfect day. Bowl games are 10-5 +5.47 and could be even better. Just as a heads up the percentage of plays will decrease as the teams participating become more popular. I do not have anything on OSU-Alabama or Michigan St.-Baylor as examples.
Florida and Vancouver are our options in hockey today. Updates per usual in the afternoon
UPDATE: NHL Vancouver +115 @ Anaheim
Sunday
Our NHL streak continued yesterday with a 2-1 evening and we’re now up to 10 in a row ending in a shootout loss or win. Bowl games were 1-3 and the late NBA game pushed/lost. I am slow getting together here with NFL this morning. Lots of potential plays coming off the board and I missed out on Washington yesterday by forgetting which day the game was being played. One confirmed play so far Detroit/Chicago OVER 43.5
UPDATE: Sticking with the Bears along with no one in America. Bears +10 -115, +375 to win outright
Let’s add Tampa +11.5 -105
UPDATE 2: Not the best afternoon. Some NBA because I’m an idiot: Detroit +2.5, +115 @ Brooklyn
Buzzed and Fiesty
This is my big bet for the year. And the other ones are big (thats what she said) because I am stuck.
Dolphins -3.5 -110 @ 80
Bears +9 +100
Panthers -4 -105
Under Jets/Pats 47 -103
NFL Week 16
Carolina -4
Newton is playing today, they are at home, still in the NFC South fail title hunt, and most importantly, I get to keep betting against Johnny Manziel!
Oakland +7 (-120)
Way too many points vs Buffalo, who have a great defense but Kyle Orton as QB. Both of Oakland’s wins have come at home. As Miracle Covers contributor and Bills fan Nick told me last night…..if you bet the Bills getting a TD in any situation, you deserve to lose your money. They’ll probably win the game by a FG, 16-13, if i had to guess an exacta.
Atlanta +6 (-105)
This game will be decided by a FG; historically these two teams have always played close games, no matter the record. Also for an inside track to the NFC South title…so expect a playoff style, grind it out game. Julio Jones is also active for the Dirty Birds.
IND vs DAL Under 55
A lot of point for a pretty important game for both teams, and their horses (Hilton for IND, Murray for DAL) are banged up and may not play. As a side note, our boy Cousin Sal gave me a shout out in this week’s prop bets column!
Seattle -8
It’s Ryan Lindley (who in his last start vs Seattle, lost 58-0. He’s also never thrown a TD pass in his career in 151 straight passing attempts) vs Russell Wilson. I pick Russell Wilson.
TEASER:
Seattle -8 and NE -11
As Bill Simmons mentioned in his last column, ” If you lose, you do so to either Geno Smith or Ryan Lindley (vs Brady and Wilson). Acceptable odds.” You can also throw any 3rd team of your choice; ideas for that third team? DET -9, KC +3, CAR -4.
Thursday
A much needed 2-0 day for us yesterday as both Boston and Dallas were winners. We are close to breakeven on the season. Single play tonight: Florida +122 @ Philadelphia. Fun fact, the Flyers have won 11 games this season and I think we’ve been against them in 9 of them.
Slight lean on Jacksonville tonight though over the past two years that’s been about as useless as shorting the stock market.
Good luck this evening.
NFL Week 15
TB +3
Riding the Tampa train again; came close last week and we had a chance for miracle chopportunity at the end of the game as a drive petered out at the 10 yard line. No Cam Newton today; Derek Anderson beat the Bucs in Week 2 but they were a different team then and Tampa has been 60% ATS since their mauling in Atlanta.
CIN +1.5 (EVEN)
This started at +1 (-110). I don’t understand why it’s moving in the other direction, unless a bunch of fish are betting on Johnny Football. In their first meeting, AJ Green wasn’t playing and winds were at 15-20 mph in Cincinnati (which can be no jokes, especially for a QB like Dalton who has very little arm strength). This is also somewhat a hedge as I have taken both Baltimore (+450) and the Browns (+1200) to win the division.
TEASER: ATL +3 and OVER 55
This will be a close, entertaining, high score game with fail thrown in. Could be the game of the week. Means something to both teams.
TEASER (+450):
BAL -14, NE -10, KC -10, DET -8, CIN/CLE Under 44
Also a prop bet, which Darts hipped me onto the last time these two teams played: Over Total FG 3.5 (-110) in the SF at SEA game. These two teams kicked 6 FGs in their last meeting.
NOTES:
For those thinking about Miami, both Hightower and Chandler Jones are playing today.
Most bet NFL games:
1. Packers-Bills
2. Patriots-Dolphins
3. Cowboys-Eagles
Two most bet games are also the most lopsided: NE 77%, GB 75%.— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 14, 2014
Teams that will go Over their Season Win Total with a victory today:
Patriots
Packers
Eagles
Colts
Ravens
Steelers
Chargers
Texans
Vikings— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 14, 2014
NFL Sunday
Unlike Pat, I’m probably taking a single game and the line has since moved. Green Bay @ Buffalo +4 -115. Other leans this morning are Tampa, Kansas City, Washington and Miami. I will happily take Miami if it hits 10 but otherwise this and the other games are probably a pass. Will post any updates.
UPDATE: Bills easily covered the 4. Leans went 2-2. NBA because I’m an idiot Spurs -4
NFL
I say that but my first bet is…
Swansea v Tott Over 2.5 -116 @ 21
This is a flat out awful bet but I have a lot of fantasy players that need to do things so I am taking an anti-hedge. The reason I posted this as NFL is because I am going to bet on just about every football game in about 2 hours.
TNF
NFL:
I’m taking Lou’s Rams, who have back-to-back shutouts, -5 vs Arizona (EVEN) and also throwing in a teaser with the Under 40. Rams have played well at home lately, partly in due to the fact they are motivated by the unfortunate events in Ferguson, MO……as well as the fact they have THE outside of outside shots at actually winning their division (they would need to win tonight, AND a SF win vs SEA this Sunday to stay alive).
NHL:
Minnesota +115
And for your enjoyment, the goal of the year below by Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey:
Jeez…. Soccer is crazy "@NFVines: Aaron Ramsey's goal https://t.co/isLDLyLDhY"
— Rocc Lesnar (@GirlThatsRocco) December 11, 2014
Sunday
Another shit day for gambling as potential games continue to come off the board. It’s better to pass than force any plays, but the degenerate in all of us would like to have more action. Only a single game so far and that’s probably unlikely to change, Indy @ Cleveland +150. Feel free to take the +3 in lieu of the moneyline but I am going with the higher potential return. Jacksonville and the Jets are both out of consideration with line moves this morning, though I would consider Jacksonville if they get over +7. Options with the Chargers and Raiders this afternoon and evening.
