Category: NFL
January 11
Mixed day again yesterday. 1-1 for a profit in hockey and 1-2 for a loss in NBA. I didn’t have any NFL action yesterday and also didn’t understand all the freaking out over the Patriots yesterday and somewhat again today. It’s not like the Ravens are actually the Raiders wearing purple unis. If your team plays like shit for the 1st half and is only down by 7 and nearly ended up only down 3, that’s a good outcome.
Nothing looks very good today. There might be some small value on the Pakcers moneyline if it gets down near -200 or so, but otherwise it’s probably a pass. Phoenix +5 in NBA in an early option, but nearing midseason I’m a very sad 13-16-2 -4.1. NHL is a positive 39-45-1 +4.44
NFL Saturday
2-2 last week – but should of been 3-1; how the fuck did I take Andy Dalton on the road vs Andrew Luck (oh wait, I was hungover; thanks Pat!)?
I, like alot of sharps, over thought that one a bit because of the fact even though Indy is an incredibly flawed team…..they are still better than the Bengals. The game was depressing because Cincy actually had a chance to cover without their #1 TE/WR/OL/MLB, that’s how average Indy is. I took Indy in the second half anyway so we made our money back.
The Dallas/Detroit game was essentially a WWE match and everyone lost who bet on that game, even if you won money. The only real winner is the NFL: they got their Green Bay vs Dallas matchup for tomorrow which will be a ratings MONSTER.
Here are the picks:
Seattle -11 (-105)
I’m also throwing this one in a shit ton of teasers. It’s actually at 11.5 now on Bovada. Carolina has good qualities, mainly it’s defense. These two teams have played 2 close games in the past 3 years, but those games were in Carolina and Carolina had Steve Smith (who isn’t this great player, but intangible wise, he wouldn’t put up with Sherman’s shit). I actually think taking Carolina in the 1st Half (+7) isn’t a bad play. But I eventually think the rubber band will break and Seattle pulls away at home in this one. I just can’t see Carolina’s offense lead by a banged up Cam Newton putting up 17 points on the best defense in the NFL, especially on the road. The only outlier is the Carolina defense or special teams scoring a TD; some guy named Brenton Bersin (who went to Wafford in South Carolina) is returning punts and muffed one last week (but could be a Snow Leopard sleeper in 2015, along with Cincy’s Rex Burkhead). I will also throw this in a teaser with the under (40) as well as with Denver -7. One more thing that makes me confident about this one; as you see in the picture below, these Carolina players take a “selfie” after winning a Wild Card Game, at home vs Ryan Lindley, where they made it a sweat for a win despite the fact the opposing team gained JUST 78 yards. These guys are just happy to be here.
New England -7
Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens have me worried like a mom late on a Saturday night when her teenage kids are out on the town. Flacco is awesome in the playoffs; their front 7 is great and the Pats OL is average at best. BUT: the Ravens still have flaws they can’t escape. Gronkowski is 100%, and they have some of the worst safety play in the NFL, being in the bottom 3 on allowing 20+ and 40+ or more pass plays. The Pats aren’t the best deep ball team, but I think one thing to come away with is that last year, the Pats were able to run the ball on the Ravens in a 41-7 win, and Blount had a big day. If they can duplicate those efforts, it will setup the PA and open up the middle of the field. Vereen will also be important in the sprint draw and pass game with screens, wheel routes and flat outs. The Ravens on the road vs actual defenses this year have been abysmal; the Pats’ defense is the best in over 10 years and I believe the second best defense left in the tournament. Revis will take out Steve Smith and the defensive line will keep Forsett in check. If Dennis Pitta was healthy in this game, I’d probably like the Ravens’ line more to keep it close…..but in the end, I just think the NFL will make sure that NE vs DEN will happen for the ratings. Wait, what? I only thought that happens in the NBA?
Side Thoughts:
Bovada is running a prop: Do all four home teams win? +190. This hasn’t happened since 2004; so it could be due. I’ve jumped on this essentially 4 team ML parlay.
Also, I like CJ Anderson at 6-to-1 to be the weekend’s rushing leader (I’ll expand more on the Denver game tomorrow) and Dez Bryant to Score a TD (-140) and Most Receiving Yards at 13/2 and well as two players I recommend for you Daily Fantasy Football degens.
NFL Sunday
2-0 after last night (although we got miracle covered for the side stuff)…our quest vs the spread is still alive! Today is the gauntlet however as these games as incredibly hard to pick, IMO. For example:
Carolina just made gambling history: they sweated out a cover in a home playoff game against an offense that couldn't break 100 total yards.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 4, 2015
Cincinnati +4 (EVEN, started at -105)
This was tough game to pick. Luck > Dalton at the QB position….but the Bengals have advantages everywhere else except WR (AJ Green is out) and TE (no Jermaine Gresham). Still, something smells fishy about the Colts here; they play in the crappy AFC South and can’t stop the run. The key is the fact I think the Bengals can run on Indy’s defense with Bernard and Hill, and keep things close. Luck is still young where he’ll make a mistake or two during his young career in these big games; he Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy (he was in the first matchup, a 27-0 win where he had 2 TDs), however, I might of taken the Colts. The majority of the money is on the Colts, around 72%. Betting on Marvin Lewis slightly scares me, however. But before I make my next pick, however, let me burn a timeout….
Dallas -7.5 (+140, started at +120)
All year, I have been talking up how much I wanted to bet against the Lions in big spots. Stafford 0-16 on the road against winning teams. The Lions’ propensity to get personal fouls at the worst times. Jim Caldwell’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” demeanor. And of COURSE the gambling gods torture me with one of Darts’ unwritten rules of miracle covers: “Don’t bet on the Cowboys after January”. Alas, I must take Romo here; the Cowboys are playing great and as bad as Romo is in big games, Stafford is that much worse. It also seems like it is destiny that Seattle and Dallas meet in the NFC Championship game as they are, IMO, the two most talented teams in the NFC.
TEASER: CIN +4 and DAL -7.5
2015 Day 4
Yesterday we won our Nashville play in one of the more ridiculous and entertaining games of the year. I asked on Twitter if anyone had stats on blown leads of three goals or more prior to the end of the 3rd as Nashville led 5-1 and 6-3 only to finish 7-6 winners in overtime. Everything else was a pass. Two NFL games this afternoon and I am on both
Bungles +3.5 @ Indy
Lions +6 @ Dallas
My only regret is not getting a better line earlier in the week (4 and 7 respectively). I’ll likely have an NBA game and amateur football play later this evening.
UPDATE Ark St +3
Saturday
More bowl game winners yesterday pushing our record for the season to 17-7 +12.32 with two games remaining. We ended up 4-0 on our 2u plays of which UCLA was one along with South Carolina, Bowling Green and Texas A&M. Hockey has been a waste of time to date with two losses and a pass on a winner taking the season record to 34-42-1 good for a sad +0.23. NFL regular season finished up at 16-15 +4.35.
I don’t like either playoff game today, but I do have a preference on both the Bungles and Lions tomorrow getting at least 3.5 and 7 respectively. For anyone looking to take Carolina today, you should be able to get 5.5 as Arizona is getting bet down any time the line pops up to 6.
Lastly, there should be some NHL plays today: Nashville early and New Jersey, Minnesota and San Jose later on make up today’s shortlist.
UPDATE 1: Nashville +110 @ Los Angeles
The Quest for Perfection
Before every playoff year, every bettor and prognosticator has their eye on one thing: getting all 11 playoff games right (whether it’s a simple win bracket, or in the case of the spread, going undefeated). It’s almost become an impossibility over the last few years thanks to the New Age of NFL Parity. Upsets, surprises, and sure locks all drown in a sea of tears and tossed away losing betting slips on the floor.
The closest I ever got was in 2011 when I went 9-2 (the only blemishes: Tim Tebow beating Pittsburgh in OT, and the Giants winning in GB in the second round). Let’s hope this year brings in perfection. Now, to today’s games (picks in BOLD):
Arizona at Carolina (-6, started at -4)
I just can’t take Ryan Lindley on the road against a defense that has been top 5 in all defensive statistics in their last 8 games. I also have no idea who Kerwynn Williams (Arizona’s RB) is. Carolina’s offense certainly will have issues moving the ball vs Arizona’s tough defense, but in betting against Arizona the last few weeks….you can tell they are getting gassed. And not just physically, due to the endless 3-and-outs their woeful offense endures, making them spend the majority of the game on the field; also mentally because their crappy QB situation taxes the momentum of a team when they can’t score. The only thing I am concerned of here: the coaching mismatch between Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera….that and the fact the majority of America has Carolina today. Add to the fact I am probably going to tease this with Dallas (and already hate myself for doing so), and it’s clear what my New Year’s Resolution is: setting as much money on fire as possible. I’ll also tease Carolina with the Under (38, now at 37.5) as well. I think both games are tight slugfests today.
Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh
No 100% LeVeon Bell is *huge* for Pittsburgh; he’ll probably won’t play. He sets up everything for that offense, and allows their WRs to get more space because safeties and linebackers have to honor the line of scrimmage at the snap to account for anything he does; this hesitation allows for big gains in the middle of the field for the passing game. Areas of concern: Even though Pittsburgh’s defense sucks and is missing CB Ike Taylor, Baltimore’s offense is putrid, especially on the road. They’ve averaged 22 points on the road this year, but that’s only because they scored 48 in one game at Tampa. Take that result out, and it’s 17 points game; in today’s NFL, that’s really bad. Flacco is probably is also hurt because their OL kinda blows. So then: what gives them a chance in this game? Their front 7; the reason Baltimore is even as good on defense statistically as they are is because of guys like Daryl Smith (who has done a wonderful job of attempting to replace the legend of Ray Lewis), Terrell Suggs (who as one tweeter put it, “looks like a penis”), Courtney Upshaw, and Haloti Ngata (who comes back off of an Adderall suspension today). People will say, “but their secondary blows”….but could you name anyone in the New York Giants’ secondary when they won their titles? Or even anyone not named Ed Reed in the 2012 Ravens’ title squad? No, you can’t, and it didn’t matter because in the NFL, even with today’s new rules, if you win the line of scrimmage….you win the game (most of the time). Add to the fact that this game, a lot like NYJ vs NE or ATL vs NO, is a hotly contested rivalry matchup where the games are always close no matter what the records are going in. Add some potential snow/rain/ice to the mix? I like the under as well at 45.5, which is way too high IMO.
Parlay Special:
CAR ML -260
CAR/ARI Under 38
BAL/PIT Under 45.5
UFC Special:
Jon “Bones” Jones wins by 5 round decision +240
Very hyped up fight between him and Cormier; watch it be boring as fuck.
Myles “Fury” Jury +130
He fights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone today, who I love as a fighter…probably one of the toughest, most professional guys in the UFC today. The problem? It’s his 5th fight in 6 mths (even though he’s gotten 3 first round KOs in those fights) and Jury is undefeated. This one is more about the value of the pick, rather than an actual prediction of the fight (when in doubt in a 50/50 coin toss: take the odds).
1/3
Tough non-cover last night. Utah is a somewhat fun, definitely young team that I think (along with the Detroit Pistons) will be good in about 2 years. The problem they have now is their skill players just aren’t skilled enough and they lack a legit go-to scorer. Where Carmelo Anthony is doing absolutely nothing in New York right now, he is a player that would make some sense out in Utah provided he didn’t wreck the potential dynamic. Until then, gamblers and fans will have to live with Trey Burke putting up Starksian 2-19 shooting efforts (including bricking a last second 3 for the miraclish cover). Rumor has it he is a point guard. Speaking of, I agree that Rondo’s statement regarding not playing D for the last 2 years is somewhat shocking. To imply that he had been playing D those previous years is a bold claim to be sure but we’ll have to take him at his word. Only one play so far at the moment…
Ravens +3 +102 @ 23
YTD : -23.47
MTD : -23.47
***UPDATE***
Prop Bet
Most Gross Passing Yds : Cardinals QBs +20.5 -109 @ 22 vs Newton
I feel the Cardinals, who threw for over 3 hundo last week against SF, will have to rely on the passing game. Arizona CBs and WRs are better than the Carolina corps. And finally, I do not wish this on a person, but notice the bet is for the Cards’ group as a whole against a slightly injury prone and very specific Cam Newton.
1/2
I was essentially freerolling yesterday for the Alabama game as I had no business hitting the teaser-assisted under in the Oregon game.
Atlanta Hawks @ Utah Jazz +4.5 -106 @ 19. Utah is playing very well at the moment, playing at home, have had the last few days off, and are a home underdog. We’ll see…
YTD : -4.47
MTD : -4.47
Tease me
Generally I leave the teasers to professionals like Sean. But it’s a holiday. I honestly don’t love anything today but I think these are decent plays and I just want to have a bit of action on things. 3 team 7 pt teaser takes
Oregon -.5
FSU/Oregon Under 81
Alabama -.5
20 to win 26
MTD : –
YTD : –
***UPDATE***
They just announced that Nick O’Leary has a tweaked hamstring. To call him integral is a fairly serious understatement. I’ll let it roll.
Oregon -7.5 -103 @ 16
NFL Week 17
Sad day; it will be the last time this year I get to bet on shitty professional football teams.
New Orleans -4 (now at -5)
Tampa has to lose today, right? If they lose, I think they get the #1 pick. Lovie Smith not laying down here to get that pick is a fireable offense, IMO.
Green Bay -7 (now at -7.5)
Lions are missing their center Dominic Raiola today (because he’s the dirtiest player in the league and got suspended before the biggest game of the year), and I get to bet against Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell with Aaron Rodgers. The Lions last win in Green Bay? 1991, with Mike Tomczak at QB.
Seattle -12 and in Teaser with Under 41.5
If they win today, they get the #1 seed. We have Seattle at 13/2 to win the NFC, and if they get homefield, they’ll have a great chance to go back to the Super Bowl. The only team with any chance to beat them in that building are the Cowboys (I can’t believe I just typed that). They beat them early this year and have a huge advantage against Seattle’s weakness: they can be run on (Dallas has a great O-Line and D.Murray at RB).
Baltimore -14
Big line, but Cleveland apparently were out partying last night, thanks to our boy Johnny Manziel. Josh Gordon and Justin Gilbert are out today (hungover) and South Carolina’s Connor Shaw (who can’t pass, but can run), starts. Mike Pettine has lost his team 5 weeks too late for us Cleveland under bettors.
What if Manziel only served craft beer at the party? That would make it a little bit better, right?
— NunesMagician.com (@NunesMagician) December 28, 2014
Fun prop bet: So Chase Daniel is starting today for KC at home vs SD. Alex Smith hasn’t throw a touchdown to a Wide Receiver……..ALL YEAR. Do you know how hard that is? In either case, I am taking these props:
Dwayne Bowe Catches TD +250
Bowe First TD 12/1
Albert Wilson* First TD 14/1
*I have no fucking idea who this guy is.
I might also take the Titans +7.5; Indy resting everybody today.
TEASER:
GB -7
HOU -8
NO -5
