Category: NFL
TNF
First, thanks to the Celtics and Pistons for going into OT last night at 88 a piece and then scoring 38 points in a wild 5 minute OT to secure the Over. 8-0 now! #miraclecover
Here are my plays tonight:
NFL:
Chicago/Dallas Over 51
Two of the worse defenses in the league. They both played last Thursday so no one really is in the mood to tackle, if they actually could tackle. Weather is a crisp 34 degrees, no wind (rare for Chicago) The only fly in the ointment here is if both teams play flat because they just played last Thursday (but remember: the NFL REALLY cares about player safety). Speaking of safeties, I’m also take a prop: first score is FG or Safety at +145.
NHL:
Going with Lou’s suggestions: Colorado +135 at Calgary (also works as a hedge as we have their season points under) and in a parlay at 3-to-1 with -150 Nashville, facing Martin Broudeur who comes out of psuedo-retirement as a member of the St.Louis Blues. He joins a long list of great HOF players who symbolize themselves with one team and end their careers (usually in a blaze of crap for one year) with another team where those jerseys get sold for $5 at the discount section at a Dick’ Sporting Goods store. Noteables:
Jerry Rice (Seahawks)
Ray Bourque (Colorado)
Emmitt Smith (Cardinals)
Michael Jordan (Wizards)
Brett Favre (NY Jets)
Karl Malone (Lakers)
Joe Montana (KC Chiefs)
Celtics Over Wednesday
Celtics playing a back-to-back, but they hit the over in ATL (211) on Tuesday (where the under has hit 11/16; the over mostly hit due to a 40 pt 1Q by the Celtics; in a sense, this over hitting was fluky). They of course blew a 20 point lead, which they’ve been doing all year. I didn’t take it because I want to make sure when I bet these, that they are “slam dunks” (and I have a calculation that helps me with this; I just take the last 5 games home v away and figure out the standard deviance). In my 7-0 mark on these, the over not only hit….it hit over by an average of 8.5 pts (which is alot for NBA standards).
The O/U is 203 tonight against the woeful Pistons, but that is under my base “number” of 204. The Pistons are also one of the worst defenses in the league, so that means Jeff Green will have a big night (he also did well vs ATL yesterday) and the Celtics can easily hit 110-120 here.
Also, as an NFL side note: I took Seattle 11.2 to win the NFC. My thinking: they either a) win home field and become NFC champ or B) play the Packers in that game, and then I can take the Packers in a hedge. The only threat to these two teams is San Francisco; who despite their awful offense is super talented and can always go on a run. But they won’t be doing that scoring less than 14 pts/game.
Monday
It’s currently raining and the temperature is steadily dropping in New York this evening, so get ready for some additional fumbling! Jets are the play tonight if you can find +7, though I am personally passing even if it gets there. As mentioned Tampa was a winner yesterday but somehow conspired to only cover and not win outright.
Nothing doing in hockey tonight thankfully, though Tampa @ Rangers should at least be good to watch. NBA because I’m an idiot:
Minnesota +15 @ Clippers
MNF
NFL:
Jets vs Dolphins Under 42
My god what a boring game. 62% of O/U bets on the Over
NHL:
Canadiens/Avalanche OVER 5.5 (+115)
NFL Week 13
TB +4 (+125) and ML +215 vs CIN
I agree with Lou here. Tampa has been the “crappy team that I bet on because they cover” in the last month for me (Lou has his Rams); their defense is not bad and Lovie Smith is turning the roster over nicely to a Cover 2 scheme (which is why Barron was traded) after an initial bad transition period. Tampa might be good next year if they figure out the QB situation. Cincinnati is one of the more erratic teams in the league, they should win this game by 2 TDs, but they’ll keep Tampa around and win by a FG most of the time here.
Baltimore -6 (-110) vs SD
San Diego’s 4rd cross country trip this year (they lost 31-0 in Miami few weeks ago); Baltimore has always played better at home and has been a yearly play for me when they play at M&T Bank Stadium.
Oakland at St Louis Under 42
Black and white game of the week
Colts -10 (+110) vs WAS
The juice got bumped up, so I called as I think Luck > McCoy. Although my D.C. under bet (7.5) is slightly in jeopardy with McCoy in there (Washington needs to run the table).
TEASER (+275):
BAL -6
NE +3
IND -10
TB +4
0-fer
0-for-Saturday here yesterday as I was 0-4 on amateur football and 0-1 on hockey with the Devils losing 3-1. I did find a winner on Calgary right before gametime but was out & about and didn’t get it posted here or on twitter.
NFL today and there’s only one game I actually like and that’s the Tampa getting +6 and +200 hosting the Bungles. I have leans on Washington, Jacksonville and New Orleans but am passing on all three.
There is a chance I’ll have a few NBA games this evening. Good luck today
UPDATE: Tampa covered but somehow did not win. NBA tonight:
Minnesota +13 @ Portland
Toronto -7 @ Lakers
Turkey Betting Tips
Give thanks to gambling! Here are my plays:
Chicago +7 and Bears +260
I said I would never bet on a Cutler-led team again, but the Bears woeful secondary gets Kyle Fuller back and the Lions will not have Reggie Bush this game. Bush makes a TD difference in their PPG when he is playing as supposed to when he is not. I also think that Jim Caldwell continues to be in a coma and somehow fucks this one up. The Bears, as bad as they have played, actually have their season on the line today. A win gets them back in the NFC WC hunt. Also another thing working for me, Lou’s “kiss of death” – when all of the NFL pregame show panelists pick one team (the Lions).
PHI v DAL Under 56.5
Way too many points, should be around 50-52.5. This will be played like a grind-it-out playoff game for the NFC East and will be in the early 20s. Also Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo are quarterbacking these football teams.
SF -1 (-115) v SEA
This is more of a hedge towards my season long SF Under bet (10.5 – they are now at 7 wins). I really hope the Saints setting their lead on fire at home to the 49ers a few weeks ago doesn’t cost me this bet.
On a side note – Seattle with their win last Sunday put them back in the NFC #1 seed hunt (Seattle owns a tie-breaker with GB and an Arizona collapse is imminent b/c their QB sucks despite their great defense; they really should start Logan Thomas) – if they get that #1 seed, no one beats them. They are right now 11/2 to win the NFC. They are a very shaky road team BUT I do think (and the video below shows this some) that the Lynch 100k “not talking to the media” fine might have galvanized them.
Thursday
Among many many other things, I’m grateful of late for other sports picking up for some terrible hockey plays of late. Detroit -7 to start the day with two options in LSU and San Francisco this evening
MNF Special
Thanks to inclement weather, we get to see TWO football games tonight. One good, and the other involving the Bills and Jets. They are playing in Detroit, but won’t be coached by Detroit, so the under (which I like at 42, 70% of the money is on the Over) might NOT be in play. Take what Jim “I went to the Romeo Crennel School of Football Game Theory” Caldwell’s decision yesterday:
You definitely want to keep settling for field goals on the road against a team that averages 40 points a game.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) November 23, 2014
So I like Bills v Jets Under 42 (in Detroit), the over in the Baltimore/New Orleans game (51) and putting both in a parlay and a teaser. I’m also going to take Bills -3 (+110), because I hate myself.
We’ll have some Turkey (betting) Tips for later in the week, including a probable return of the Celtics Over train (5-0) this week when they face Chicago.
Sunday
We had a 3-0 day in college football which helped to offset an 0-2 hockey day. The Carolina loss was particularly terrible as they effectively set the game on fire in the 3rd. NFL this week originally looked like there were going to be a lot of plays, but many of the games have now dropped off with the usual Sunday morning line moves. Detroit and Miami are the two primary sides here so I guess they are leans and not plays at this point.
One confirmed play today and that’s Green Bay @ Minnesota +8. This line is likely 7.5 at this point and peaked as high as 9.5 or 10 earlier in the week. I should have been more vigilant and taken it then but the +8 is good enough and I’m taking the moneyline at +305 as well. Hoping for 3 upsets in a row following the Jets and Rams he past two weeks.
The couple of other games I’ll peek at before 1:00 are Atlanta and Houston, but I’m not expecting anything to come about. Nothing in hockey or any other sport today. Good luck
