Category: NFL
Saturday
More bowl game winners yesterday pushing our record for the season to 17-7 +12.32 with two games remaining. We ended up 4-0 on our 2u plays of which UCLA was one along with South Carolina, Bowling Green and Texas A&M. Hockey has been a waste of time to date with two losses and a pass on a winner taking the season record to 34-42-1 good for a sad +0.23. NFL regular season finished up at 16-15 +4.35.
I don’t like either playoff game today, but I do have a preference on both the Bungles and Lions tomorrow getting at least 3.5 and 7 respectively. For anyone looking to take Carolina today, you should be able to get 5.5 as Arizona is getting bet down any time the line pops up to 6.
Lastly, there should be some NHL plays today: Nashville early and New Jersey, Minnesota and San Jose later on make up today’s shortlist.
UPDATE 1: Nashville +110 @ Los Angeles
The Quest for Perfection
Before every playoff year, every bettor and prognosticator has their eye on one thing: getting all 11 playoff games right (whether it’s a simple win bracket, or in the case of the spread, going undefeated). It’s almost become an impossibility over the last few years thanks to the New Age of NFL Parity. Upsets, surprises, and sure locks all drown in a sea of tears and tossed away losing betting slips on the floor.
The closest I ever got was in 2011 when I went 9-2 (the only blemishes: Tim Tebow beating Pittsburgh in OT, and the Giants winning in GB in the second round). Let’s hope this year brings in perfection. Now, to today’s games (picks in BOLD):
Arizona at Carolina (-6, started at -4)
I just can’t take Ryan Lindley on the road against a defense that has been top 5 in all defensive statistics in their last 8 games. I also have no idea who Kerwynn Williams (Arizona’s RB) is. Carolina’s offense certainly will have issues moving the ball vs Arizona’s tough defense, but in betting against Arizona the last few weeks….you can tell they are getting gassed. And not just physically, due to the endless 3-and-outs their woeful offense endures, making them spend the majority of the game on the field; also mentally because their crappy QB situation taxes the momentum of a team when they can’t score. The only thing I am concerned of here: the coaching mismatch between Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera….that and the fact the majority of America has Carolina today. Add to the fact I am probably going to tease this with Dallas (and already hate myself for doing so), and it’s clear what my New Year’s Resolution is: setting as much money on fire as possible. I’ll also tease Carolina with the Under (38, now at 37.5) as well. I think both games are tight slugfests today.
Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh
No 100% LeVeon Bell is *huge* for Pittsburgh; he’ll probably won’t play. He sets up everything for that offense, and allows their WRs to get more space because safeties and linebackers have to honor the line of scrimmage at the snap to account for anything he does; this hesitation allows for big gains in the middle of the field for the passing game. Areas of concern: Even though Pittsburgh’s defense sucks and is missing CB Ike Taylor, Baltimore’s offense is putrid, especially on the road. They’ve averaged 22 points on the road this year, but that’s only because they scored 48 in one game at Tampa. Take that result out, and it’s 17 points game; in today’s NFL, that’s really bad. Flacco is probably is also hurt because their OL kinda blows. So then: what gives them a chance in this game? Their front 7; the reason Baltimore is even as good on defense statistically as they are is because of guys like Daryl Smith (who has done a wonderful job of attempting to replace the legend of Ray Lewis), Terrell Suggs (who as one tweeter put it, “looks like a penis”), Courtney Upshaw, and Haloti Ngata (who comes back off of an Adderall suspension today). People will say, “but their secondary blows”….but could you name anyone in the New York Giants’ secondary when they won their titles? Or even anyone not named Ed Reed in the 2012 Ravens’ title squad? No, you can’t, and it didn’t matter because in the NFL, even with today’s new rules, if you win the line of scrimmage….you win the game (most of the time). Add to the fact that this game, a lot like NYJ vs NE or ATL vs NO, is a hotly contested rivalry matchup where the games are always close no matter what the records are going in. Add some potential snow/rain/ice to the mix? I like the under as well at 45.5, which is way too high IMO.
Parlay Special:
CAR ML -260
CAR/ARI Under 38
BAL/PIT Under 45.5
UFC Special:
Jon “Bones” Jones wins by 5 round decision +240
Very hyped up fight between him and Cormier; watch it be boring as fuck.
Myles “Fury” Jury +130
He fights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone today, who I love as a fighter…probably one of the toughest, most professional guys in the UFC today. The problem? It’s his 5th fight in 6 mths (even though he’s gotten 3 first round KOs in those fights) and Jury is undefeated. This one is more about the value of the pick, rather than an actual prediction of the fight (when in doubt in a 50/50 coin toss: take the odds).
1/3
Tough non-cover last night. Utah is a somewhat fun, definitely young team that I think (along with the Detroit Pistons) will be good in about 2 years. The problem they have now is their skill players just aren’t skilled enough and they lack a legit go-to scorer. Where Carmelo Anthony is doing absolutely nothing in New York right now, he is a player that would make some sense out in Utah provided he didn’t wreck the potential dynamic. Until then, gamblers and fans will have to live with Trey Burke putting up Starksian 2-19 shooting efforts (including bricking a last second 3 for the miraclish cover). Rumor has it he is a point guard. Speaking of, I agree that Rondo’s statement regarding not playing D for the last 2 years is somewhat shocking. To imply that he had been playing D those previous years is a bold claim to be sure but we’ll have to take him at his word. Only one play so far at the moment…
Ravens +3 +102 @ 23
YTD : -23.47
MTD : -23.47
***UPDATE***
Prop Bet
Most Gross Passing Yds : Cardinals QBs +20.5 -109 @ 22 vs Newton
I feel the Cardinals, who threw for over 3 hundo last week against SF, will have to rely on the passing game. Arizona CBs and WRs are better than the Carolina corps. And finally, I do not wish this on a person, but notice the bet is for the Cards’ group as a whole against a slightly injury prone and very specific Cam Newton.
1/2
I was essentially freerolling yesterday for the Alabama game as I had no business hitting the teaser-assisted under in the Oregon game.
Atlanta Hawks @ Utah Jazz +4.5 -106 @ 19. Utah is playing very well at the moment, playing at home, have had the last few days off, and are a home underdog. We’ll see…
YTD : -4.47
MTD : -4.47
Tease me
Generally I leave the teasers to professionals like Sean. But it’s a holiday. I honestly don’t love anything today but I think these are decent plays and I just want to have a bit of action on things. 3 team 7 pt teaser takes
Oregon -.5
FSU/Oregon Under 81
Alabama -.5
20 to win 26
MTD : –
YTD : –
***UPDATE***
They just announced that Nick O’Leary has a tweaked hamstring. To call him integral is a fairly serious understatement. I’ll let it roll.
Oregon -7.5 -103 @ 16
NFL Week 17
Sad day; it will be the last time this year I get to bet on shitty professional football teams.
New Orleans -4 (now at -5)
Tampa has to lose today, right? If they lose, I think they get the #1 pick. Lovie Smith not laying down here to get that pick is a fireable offense, IMO.
Green Bay -7 (now at -7.5)
Lions are missing their center Dominic Raiola today (because he’s the dirtiest player in the league and got suspended before the biggest game of the year), and I get to bet against Matthew Stafford and Jim Caldwell with Aaron Rodgers. The Lions last win in Green Bay? 1991, with Mike Tomczak at QB.
Seattle -12 and in Teaser with Under 41.5
If they win today, they get the #1 seed. We have Seattle at 13/2 to win the NFC, and if they get homefield, they’ll have a great chance to go back to the Super Bowl. The only team with any chance to beat them in that building are the Cowboys (I can’t believe I just typed that). They beat them early this year and have a huge advantage against Seattle’s weakness: they can be run on (Dallas has a great O-Line and D.Murray at RB).
Baltimore -14
Big line, but Cleveland apparently were out partying last night, thanks to our boy Johnny Manziel. Josh Gordon and Justin Gilbert are out today (hungover) and South Carolina’s Connor Shaw (who can’t pass, but can run), starts. Mike Pettine has lost his team 5 weeks too late for us Cleveland under bettors.
What if Manziel only served craft beer at the party? That would make it a little bit better, right?
— NunesMagician.com (@NunesMagician) December 28, 2014
Fun prop bet: So Chase Daniel is starting today for KC at home vs SD. Alex Smith hasn’t throw a touchdown to a Wide Receiver……..ALL YEAR. Do you know how hard that is? In either case, I am taking these props:
Dwayne Bowe Catches TD +250
Bowe First TD 12/1
Albert Wilson* First TD 14/1
*I have no fucking idea who this guy is.
I might also take the Titans +7.5; Indy resting everybody today.
TEASER:
GB -7
HOU -8
NO -5
NFL Week 17
Looks like crap for betting purposes. Titans are easily the best game on the list today and that’s not saying much. We’ll see if they get up to 9 or something before gametime. Chicago/Minnesota Over has been pushed out of range and I’m not overly excited about SD/KC over 41.
Yesterday was excellent as we went 5-0 in bowl games, 1-0 on NBA and 1-1 in hockey. NBA should have been 2-0 as I completely forgot to play Indiana who won very easily over Brooklyn. Otherwise a near perfect day. Bowl games are 10-5 +5.47 and could be even better. Just as a heads up the percentage of plays will decrease as the teams participating become more popular. I do not have anything on OSU-Alabama or Michigan St.-Baylor as examples.
Florida and Vancouver are our options in hockey today. Updates per usual in the afternoon
UPDATE: NHL Vancouver +115 @ Anaheim
Sunday
Our NHL streak continued yesterday with a 2-1 evening and we’re now up to 10 in a row ending in a shootout loss or win. Bowl games were 1-3 and the late NBA game pushed/lost. I am slow getting together here with NFL this morning. Lots of potential plays coming off the board and I missed out on Washington yesterday by forgetting which day the game was being played. One confirmed play so far Detroit/Chicago OVER 43.5
UPDATE: Sticking with the Bears along with no one in America. Bears +10 -115, +375 to win outright
Let’s add Tampa +11.5 -105
UPDATE 2: Not the best afternoon. Some NBA because I’m an idiot: Detroit +2.5, +115 @ Brooklyn
Buzzed and Fiesty
This is my big bet for the year. And the other ones are big (thats what she said) because I am stuck.
Dolphins -3.5 -110 @ 80
Bears +9 +100
Panthers -4 -105
Under Jets/Pats 47 -103
NFL Week 16
Carolina -4
Newton is playing today, they are at home, still in the NFC South fail title hunt, and most importantly, I get to keep betting against Johnny Manziel!
Oakland +7 (-120)
Way too many points vs Buffalo, who have a great defense but Kyle Orton as QB. Both of Oakland’s wins have come at home. As Miracle Covers contributor and Bills fan Nick told me last night…..if you bet the Bills getting a TD in any situation, you deserve to lose your money. They’ll probably win the game by a FG, 16-13, if i had to guess an exacta.
Atlanta +6 (-105)
This game will be decided by a FG; historically these two teams have always played close games, no matter the record. Also for an inside track to the NFC South title…so expect a playoff style, grind it out game. Julio Jones is also active for the Dirty Birds.
IND vs DAL Under 55
A lot of point for a pretty important game for both teams, and their horses (Hilton for IND, Murray for DAL) are banged up and may not play. As a side note, our boy Cousin Sal gave me a shout out in this week’s prop bets column!
Seattle -8
It’s Ryan Lindley (who in his last start vs Seattle, lost 58-0. He’s also never thrown a TD pass in his career in 151 straight passing attempts) vs Russell Wilson. I pick Russell Wilson.
TEASER:
Seattle -8 and NE -11
As Bill Simmons mentioned in his last column, ” If you lose, you do so to either Geno Smith or Ryan Lindley (vs Brady and Wilson). Acceptable odds.” You can also throw any 3rd team of your choice; ideas for that third team? DET -9, KC +3, CAR -4.
