Category: NFL
Week 2 NFL Leans
NY Giants -4.5 (-105) vs New Orleans
Odell Beckham Jr. and Shepard should have 500 yards between them in this game vs a poor Saints defense. New Orleans’ offense isn’t as prolific on the road as it is in the dome, although the weather in NY should cooperate. The NYG CB play looked improved last week from any game that they played last year. I hate taking Eli, but I am pretty confident the Giants take it down here. The only question whether it’s a blowout or a close game.
Browns +7 (-115) vs Baltimore
This is now at 6.5. The Browns lost RGIII last week, who looked terrible and it goes to show what I know because I’d thought he’d be good for them (although no Josh Gordon hurts). Josh McCown is at least an OK professional QB (as Gowin says, “he’s a McCown…it’s like a “Niekro” in MLB). Baltimore will be missing Perriman again this game, and their offense isn’t great as it is and I except most of their games this year to be boring ass rock fights. Home teams are 55% against the spread in their home opener since 2003. I think the Browns keep it close but lose the game in the spectacular, soul crushing fashion that only the Cleveland Browns can do.
Jacksonville +3 (+105) @ San Diego
The Chargers just lost WR Keenan Allen and blew a 24-3 lead in the second half to the Chiefs who beat them in OT. They come home to a fanbase that doesn’t care much for them now as they are most likely moving to LA. And, it will be pretty hot in SD for this game but the Jags play in that weather too so they shouldn’t be too phased by it. This will probably be a one or two point game no one watches (except for those that know who you are).
Titans @ Lions Over 47.5 (-110)
These defenses stink, and both QBs are disposal machines. Mariota threw 2 TAINTs (TD After Interception) to the other team last week.
TEASER @ +240:
NYG -4.5
NYG/NO Over 53.5
Lions -6
DAL +3
NFL Week 1 Leans
Here are my leans for Week 1:
Browns +4.5 (-115) @ Philadelphia
This is now at +4. And me and Lou discussed on the podcast, we think Philadelphia is really going to stink this year, especially starting a banged up rookie QB in Week 1. They are a young team who isn’t 3 points better than anyone at the moment, nevermind the lowly Browns. Also, RGIII has looked pretty good in pre-season and with new coach and offensive guru Hue Jackson, the Browns should be able to move the ball and throw it downfield. This should be either a close, entertaining game or a close, boring game that sets the sport of American football back 5 years.
Minnesota at Tennessee Under 41 (-105)
With a second year QB (Mariota), and an old backup QB (Hill), and two teams whose wide receiving corps have an average fantasy football draft ranking of 9th round or lower, I expect alot of two and three tight end sets and an over/under of plays with 3 WR sets at 25.5 (the average NFL game, teams run around 110-125 plays). There is a hint that new MIN QB Sam Bradford might actually play in this one, despite being there for like, a week. Titans TE Delanie Walker is questionable with an illness, and he’s a big part of the Titans’ zone read playaction offense. And the game is played on natural grass. This should be the day’s most boring game.
Oakland at New Orleans Over 51 (-110)
Both teams have tremendous offensive talent, all healthy because it’s Week 1. Drew Brees, who just signed a new 2 year deal, does way better at home in the dome than he does on the road. So does his offensive teammates. New Orleans’ defense is the worst in the league, and Oakland’s is about average. This should be the most exciting game of the day.
Baltimore -3 (-115) vs Buffalo
Buffalo’s defense is missing DT Darius due to suspension and WR Sammy Watkins is banged up. They also have some questions at free safety, an important role in Rex Ryan’s scheme. From Greg Bedard below:
There is no more crucial position in Rex Ryan’s defense than the free safety, who is the nerve center for all communication and checks. Graham had his share of issues last season after converting from cornerback. Communication was a big issue for the defense last season, Ryan’s first in Buffalo, and that has to become a strength for the unit to take the next step.
I expect Baltimore to test the safeties early and often with Joe Flacco’s deep ball prowless; they also get some WRs back from injury (Perriman, Smith) they didn’t have last year. Buffalo also will have a hard time exploiting the Ravens’ weakness, CB depth, as their QB Tyrod Taylor is more of a zone read QB as supposed to a guy who can dink and dunk with precision accuracy. Also, Taylor was a Raven, so the front 7 had a good look at his running style during his time there. Betting the Ravens at home has done me well over the years, so going to stick with the trend on this one.
TEASER @ +330:
GB/JAX Over 48
Hou -6
KC -7
SEA -10.5
UFC BONUS:
Mickey Gall -300 (now at -400)
So Mickey Gall, who is 2-0 in his young career (with two submissions) faces former WWE wrestler Phil “CM Punk” Brooks this Saturday at UFC 203. I bet this the minute it came out, and as you can see, the action on Gall has poured in. It might even go to -420 (lol) before the fight. CM Punk, who has been training MMA for the last two years, has never fought a professional or amateur MMA fight and has only done a little Kempo in terms of formal martial arts training. The UFC is really only putting him out there to sell a PPV. According to MMA journalist Luke Thomas, CM Punk didn’t technically meet Ohio athletic commission’s stated requirements for licensure (yet they gave him one anyways; who says money doesn’t influence politics!). CM Punk has also had a hard time cutting weight to 170 (which he hasn’t weighed since high school!), which is always a bad sign at 37 years of age. At 23, Mickey Gall is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu from the Jim Miller camp in NJ, one known for its world class rear naked chokes and guillotines. That would be a prop to take the day of the fight (I would guess Gall to win by submission would be at around +150; I’ll probably take that too). If Mickey Gall loses this, I might retire from MMA betting as I clearly don’t know anything (or, the kid takes a paid dive and the sport is rigged).
PARLAY: Jessica Eye (-145) and Mickey Gall (-300) and Werdum (-300) and GGG (Boxing, -600) @ +240
2016 NFL Over/Unders
My Confidence is low but the picks are high. Not enough rooting for failure for my liking:
5) Jets Over 8
4) Chiefs Over 9.5
3) Falcons Under 7.5
2) Vikings Under 9.5
1) Lions Over 7
Also notable and not in any order:
Bengals Over 9.5
Washington Under 7.5
Saints Over 7
Rams Over 7.5
-Lou
2016 NFL Preview
It’s here, the initial podcast! Sean and Lou open up to discuss NFL Division Winners and Win Totals for the 2016 NFL Season:
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miraclecoverscom-2016-nfl-preview
Super Tuesday
Bernie Sanders to win Massachusetts +300
Bernie Sanders to win Oklahoma -200
Donald Trump to win Texas +500
I also wish I knew more about the site “PredictIt” – feel like I lost out on money here, especially betting Trump. He was at +3000 to win the GOP back in August!
Super Bowl 50 Preview
Carolina Panthers (17-1) vs Denver Broncos (14-4)
The story going into this game is two fold: the ascension of Cam Newton, and a possibly historic Denver defense. Ironically, the QB on the other side of the ball (Peyton Manning), isn’t the big story coming into this game, despite it most likely being his last game of a Hall of Fame career (he is +400 at 0.5 to throw a pass next year for those wondering). One could argue the Broncos defense got here in spite of Peyton Manning, instead of the other way around which it was for most of his career, especially with the Colts.
On this blog, we shit on the majority of these quarterbacks constantly. We’ve made money betting against some really bad QB play in the last decade, which is still pretty bad despite the rules helping the QBs out more. A McCown can throw for 300+ yards and a 112.7 QB rating vs a Super Bowl caliber defense in Carolina. Yet we still have Brian Hoyer starting playoff games.
There are really 6 “money” QBs out there who are really good and can win despite their team being bad around them: Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Brady, Wilson, and Luck. 5 out of those 6 have won a title. But that has been stagnant for the last few years, and it would be refreshing to see another come into the club. I think Cam Newton is that guy. He won a title in college. He was a Heisman Trophy winner and a #1 pick. He’s likely this year’s MVP. He’s grown and matured into a solid game manager with a killer cadence and is always involved in the game and getting his team’s spirits up. The guy has become a leader now and combine that with his amazing athletic ability and size, I just think now is *his* time.
He has this incredible year despite losing Kelvin Benjamin, which I thought was such a devastating injury I jumped to bet Carolina’s under (8.5) before the year (oops)! Ted Ginn is catching TD passes week after week (and still dropping them, too….him to drop a pass is -130 for those wondering). Jericho Cotchery is catching passes for him. It’s like my 2007 fantasy team all over again. And still yet, Cam has had a career year and Carolina has been the best and most consistent team in football.
If Jonathan Stewart was healthy all year long, they might of won all of their games before this one because their schedule was so soft. They are 90% healthy. They have the best LBs. They have the best RB. They have the 2nd best TE and OL. They have the best CB in form all year. They’ve been the second best ATS all year (Minnesota was #1). Even Ron Rivera has coached well, and perfectly managed Jonathan Stewart’s health down the stretch. I just think that we are looking at an all-time team and we may have missed that because, on average, the quality of the football in the NFL this year was pretty shitty.
The main question is: WILL THEY COVER THE SPREAD THOUGH? I see this game in two ways: either Carolina gets up 24-0 early and crushes the Broncos, or Carolina blows a lead late and Denver miracle covers. I don’t think Denver can win the game because of the edge at QB, despite Denver having the better front 7 overall.
Denver’s defense has been historic in terms of passing yards allowed and sacks. Lou thinks they are the best we’ve seen in the modern era since the 2000 Ravens (although I say they are 4th behind the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Bucs, and the 2013 Seahawks). Their team was really built to defeat teams like the Patriots, the Packers…..teams with various skill guys in the short controlled passing game. They held Green Bay to 77 yards passing! However, in 3 games vs “mobile” QBs this year: Kansas City (twice) and Minnesota, offenses averaged 122 yards per game and 1 rushing TD per game. QB’s averaged around 24 yards running a game. And the Chiefs especially used their RBs in the passing game, with some guy named Charcandrick West catching 3 passes for 92 yards and a TD. The Patriots hit the Broncos for big plays to their RBs in both of their games, and should have called more (but when you have Branden Bolden and James White, I can see why they didn’t call more of those plays).
When you have a mobile QB who can also actually throw, he is hard to sack as well as his running ability “stretches” out the front 7, exerting pressure on good defensive “gap” discipline. It’s like in soccer how a good passing team can widen you out, or in basketball has a great shooting team opens up the middle of the floor. I just think that Denver has problems with these types of schemes because the DEs like Ware and Miller want to go up field to a spot. They aren’t the “hybrid” type of ends like NE or Seattle has, and can be at times undisciplined in containing the pocket. Add to the fact that Carolina has the best RB stable in the game, so those same ends and outside LBs have to honor that in the zone read scheme too. I expect a lot of reverses, triple option play action, and wide passes to the flats and wheel routes from Carolina as they hope to catch Denver “looking” in the backfield spying on Cam. The other adjustment I see by Denver is to blitz a shit ton….but that is risky as if they don’t get there, Cam can escape and run. It’s one thing for the “rush” to get to the QB…but with Cam, it’s another thing to “get there”, as Lou would say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dui8z0msqzc
Denver has excellent CBs and should have no issue covering the average at best WR core of Carolina. But I just think because of the quarterback’s dynamic play ability, the dam could eventually break, especially to someone lower on the depth chart, like a Corey Brown (who caught 7 balls last game, and 11 the game before).
The only other worry by Carolina: they kinda blow second half leads. Taking Denver in the 2nd half, whatever the number, isn’t a bad play and hedge. But, another reason I love the Panthers in this matchup: I get to bet against Peyton Manning in a big game. One of my best Super Bowls was in 2009 Colts vs Saints. I expect plenty of Manning face, even if this is his last hurrah and that can be galvanizing for a team (see: 2012 Ravens, 2010 Celtics, 2015 Juventus) for a run towards a title game.
Denver also covered in the “Madden 16” simulation, losing 28-24.
So, the pick for me: Carolina -6 at +105. Denver may have an all-time defense, but Carolina has an all-time team.
Now for the props:
Peyton Manning Total INTs thrown Over 0.5 -225
One of my favorites.
Ted Ginn Jr Total Rushing Yards Over -5.5 +110
We’ll see a reverse or two by Carolina to keep the Denver edge guys honest vs Cam’s Zone Read attack.
Total Receiving Yards Mike Tolbert Over 7.5 -115
Total Receptions Over 1.5 Jonathan Stewart EVEN
Jonathan Stewart Anytime TD EVEN
Bullish RBs for Carolina.
How Many Successful Field Goals in the Game? 2 +325
Total Successful Field Goals Over 3.5 +130
Good FG kickers for both teams.
First Scoring Play of the Game: Panthers Safety +2000
I really should bet the “safety” angle every year. I remember the joy in his face from Lou’s boy “Cheese” as he hit this bet in 2013:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBP_t808xEI
Will the Panthers score in every quarter? Yes +215
Total Receptions for Corey Brown Over 2.5 -150
Total Yards Corey Brown Over 39.5 -115
I like Corey Brown’s matchup vs a banged up Chris Harris Jr. I also think he and Cam have gelled nicely in the last 6 weeks of the year and has been the guy to fill some of the “production” gap lost by Kelvin Benjamin.
How Many Times will “Dab” or “Dabbing” be mentioned by the announcers? Over 2 at EVEN
I feel like I am freerolling this one, especially if Carolina and Cam get rolling.
Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge? +125
This is free money here, he’s wrong like 75% of the time!
Who will the Super Bowl QB thank first? God at +200
If you think Cam wins the MVP, also bet this one. He always thanks God first in every speech he’s ever given as his dad is a preacher. Manning will NOT thank god…he always thanks his teammates first in everything.
MVP:
Cam Newton -130 (now at -150!)
Peyton Manning +275
I bet both the QBs to win the MVP every year; I feel you’ll hit this 75% of the time in your life. Luke Kuechly at +1200 and Owen Daniels at +6600 aren’t bad “reaches” for me here….but if the Broncos *do* win, Peyton Manning will be the MVP, even if he goes 10-30 with 200 yards and 1 TD with 3 INTs.
UFC BONUS:
Jake Rosholt +135
Jake Rosholt to win by decision +150
NFL Championship Sunday
2015-16 Betting stats for NFL's final 4
NE: 8-7-2 ATS, 10-7 O/U
DEN: 8-8-1 ATS, 6-10-1 O/U
ARI: 9-8 ATS, 9-8 O/U
CAR: 12-5 ATS, 11-5-1 O/U— Covers (@Covers) January 23, 2016
Pats -3.5 at Denver
This is now at -3.5 at some books, where sharps have pounced on it (hence why the line hasn’t moved from 4 to 6). 75% of the money is on NE; a large amount for a road favorite in a championship game. But two trends which favor the Pats today:
a): only 3 times in the modern era, has there been a road favorite in a Conference Championship game (it happened a lot in the 70s, but the rules which determined home field back then were based on an “alternating” structure, a la baseball and the World Series back in the day. So that meant that the 1972 14-0 Dolphins actually played a road game in the playoffs, if you can believe that). All 3 times, the road favorite not only won, but covered convincingly (BUF at MIA in 1993; DEN at PIT in 1997). One of those teams was the Pats, in 2004 when a fever ridden Tom Brady beat a 15-1 Pittsburgh team, 41-27 (and the game wasn’t even *that* close). Generally, when Vegas does this…..they know something. Also, history favors “chalk” in these games in general:
Since 85-86 NFL postseason, conference championship favorites of -3 or less are 11-3 ATS (78.5%). -3.5 or lower are 15-5 ATS mark (75%).
— Jason Logan (@CoversJLo) January 24, 2016
b):
.@Patriots: 24-3 last 2 seasons when Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski play (4-5 with 1 or both out of lineup) pic.twitter.com/9omDjXQNiR
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 24, 2016
I expect the Pats to win today, and am more unusually confident as a fan going into the game today….but Denver can be a tough place to play; Belichick and Brady are 2-6 lifetime there, including losing the 2013 AFC title game. But they didn’t have Gronk then, they do now. And Collins/Hightower in the LB lineup will mean that noodle arm Peyton Manning will have a hard time throwing the ball over the middle. Chris Harris, Denver’s slot CB, is a game time decision with a shoulder injury, and that’s big because he will need the game of his life vs Julian Edleman. Additionally, as the game goes on, the weather forecast calls for a dip into the 30s and maybe some precipitation. And if the Pats can run the ball for at least 75 yards, they’ll probably win this game 28-19, 34-20….some score like that where (thanks to Denver’s inept offense), the score is “bigger” than it looks. The sharps are on Denver……but only at -3.5 and at -3 with favorable juice and its more of a math play. But I think the optimal play when looking at these teams at face value is NE because of the edge at QB, and the fact the Broncos have a lot of dumb players on their team and they are coached by Gary Kubiak, who often clinches his butt up in these games (ask Texans fans).
Another thing to consider: sometimes, even the dumb “public” is right and hits the favorite. 75% of the money is on the Pats right now; usually 80% of more is when I recommend actually taking the other side on the math alone…..but that goes for regular season, where there are more surprises (due to more shitty and pretender teams), not teams of quality like the Pats. But Denver’s defense is good enough that 24-21 or 20-17 is in play as well, especially with it being Peyton’s swan song with the Broncos, if not his career.
Carolina -3 vs Arizona
The line movement shows that as it’s around a 69/31 split on the money. Sharps are on Arizona (who I took at +210 to win the NFC before the playoff, so this is also a hedge for me), which has a lot of things going for it: they are the more balanced team, they have the better WR core, and they have the better special teams. BUT in these big games, its all about the QB. The reason I picked GB last week is I though Rodgers was better than Palmer, and that showed despite Arizona winning. Carson Palmer is the type of QB where he will have these great numbers, but when you actually watch the game…..you are never all that impressed. He’ll need to play a mistake free game on the road today, and that’s a tall ask for Carson “Mr. Turnover” Palmer. The upside is: he has the talent around him to make up for mistakes quickly.
Carolina has been the best team all year in the NFL. Yes, they had a weak schedule, but they have (in terms of form):
– the best LB core left in the field
– the best CB left in the field
– the best RB left in the field
And add Cam Newton, who is this year’s MVP and playing at home with tons of confidence. Two things however do concern me with Carolina:
a) Defensively, they are very good, especially early in the game when everyone is at full stamina and they really get after it. Like how they pounced on Seattle last week, getting out to a 31-0 lead. BUT they don’t have great depth in the pass rush, and they lose DE Jared Allen today to a foot fracture…..that leads to more time in the pocket for the QB as the game wears on.
b) Carolina tends to have “sphincter constriction syndrome” as the game goes on, in play calling especially. Way too conservative last week in the second half vs Seattle in the play calling, scoring 0 points (although losing TE Greg Olsen didn’t help and his health is HUGE to this offense as they run the ball a lot which creates play action). The Carolina WR core is also the weakest I’ve seen in a long time. This probably is the reason that Carolina is +115 in scoring differential in the 1st half of games, but only +41 in the second half. They’ve almost blown double digit second half leads vs Indy, Green Bay, and NY Giants this year. So the trend would be to take Arizona 2H in this game no matter the line, methinks, as well. Cam Newton will have to “keep his cool” as Arizona makes their likely second half run; he has yet to win a game as big as this and it will be interesting to see how he plays in his first NFL test.
I see either Carolina winning big, hanging on, or if Arizona does pull it out, winning by 3, in this one.
TEASER BONUS (+160): NE+NE/DEN OVER 44+CAR
Divisional Sunday
Seattle +3 (-120) at Carolina
Denver -9 (+115) vs PIT
TEASER:
SEATTLE + DENVER + DENVER/PIT UNDER 41
UFC BONUS:
Dominick Cruz +115
Divisional Saturday
Went 2-2 last weekend…two of my picks blew double digit leads….the theme of WC weekend was the better QB won in every single matchup. Could that be a theme for this week? I think there will be some deviations of this for this weekend because of some key injuries to the outside offensive talent: Antonio Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and DaVante Adams are out. Gronkowski and Maclin are questionable.
Check out where the most up to date action is for each game of NFL Divisional Round from our friends @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/AWGkjdgZzH
— Covers (@Covers) January 15, 2016
KC (+5) at NE
This line has stayed constant all week. I think the Chiefs, with their great defense, will keep things close in Foxboro, where it is snowing/raining which could hamper the Pats passing game. As a Pats fan, I would usually lean more on my team here but they have major injuries on the offensive line and running back, and the replacements have played like dog shit. James White will need to have a big game I fancy for them to move the ball. The Pats lost 4 out of their last 6 going into the postseason…..that has never happened in the Bill Belichick era, which is astonishing. Gronkowski has a back issue, as well as got some injections in his knee. Julian Edleman is coming off of a foot fracture and some would argue he is more important to the offense than Gronk, especially on 3rd down. There’s also the Chandler Jones synthetic weed issue; does he play? Does it motivate him, or will be thinking about Doritos all game? After all is said and done, I do believe the Pats win the game, but the Chiefs cover. Alex Smith will need to throw for 300+ yards, or at least have 225 as well as 60+ rushing yards, for the Chiefs to have a chance to win. I see him projecting to do enough to keep it close. He missed some big plays last week due to inaccuracy, and the Chiefs offense sputtered after losing Jeremy Maclin (although it didn’t matter as the Texans sucked), who even if he plays, probably won’t even be at 60%. This will allow the patriots to focus more on shutting down KC TE Travis Kelce. The Chiefs need to score more than 24+ points today to win. I think they fall short and the Patriots (9-2 all time in the divisional round with Belichick) pull it out, losing 24-21.
GB (+7.5) at ARI
Arizona kicked the shit out of the Packers a few weeks ago, 38-8. Green Bay had somewhat of a resurgence last week, throwing the ball well and getting Randall Cobb back healthy and productive. They even ran the ball well. Granted, Arizona is of a different quality than the woeful Washington Football team (who I bet on last weekend…I was really hungover on Sunday after an all night poker bender). Arizona is the most balanced team in all of football, and have good coaching as well. That being said, I think there will be a lot of scoring in this game, and I am much more bullish on the Over at 49.5 than this line. I have models saying this game ends up 35-21, and others 38-34. Usually when a team plays another a second time after getting their ass kicked, they respond with a better performance. Aaron Rodgers won’t go down without a fight, and playing in a dome favors his style as he will be able to throw the ball downfield. The only question is can his WRs get open, as they have had issues beating man coverage this year. I will also probably tease the Packers as well.
Here is my DFS lineup for the week as I made it to Round 2 of the Yahoo “Champion of Champions” contest:
