Category: NFL
Wild Card Playoff Picks
I won’t be betting every spread…..but I will take a line for each game in the yearly quest to go 11-0 ATS (or at least undefeated). Anything I actually bet on is in BOLD.
Chiefs -9
Mike Mularkey on the road with no DeMarco Murray, a young QB who can run but has no one to throw to, and a WR Eric Decker who can get open….but just can’t catch the ball? Decker has sucked since he left Peyton Manning. Yes, I know it’s Reid and Smith at home and they lose here a lot but this isn’t the round for the yearly Andy Reid special. That is for the next round.
Saints -7 (EVEN)
The Saints are a good, balanced team with arguably a top 3 QB in Drew Brees and the top playcaller in Sean Peyton. I usually fear the “beat a team 2 times before a playoff game” line but the Saints are in the Dome, we aren’t paying juice, and the Panthers are incredibly flawed as Cam Newton has no one to throw to and their CB play hasn’t been as good as previous years. I actually might also take the Saints to win the NFC (+400), because I think they are good enough to get to the NFC Championship game where we could then hedge.
Atlanta +6
The Rams are good….but they are young and the Falcons do a good job of keeping games outstandingly close despite their mediocre play. They were actually the one team wiseguys bet on the most all year. It’s because, like in this game…as in most games….they have more talent than the other side usually, especially at skill positions. It’s just coaching really fails them in the key moments…despite the basics being sound (the Cover 3 defense, the stretch PA system they run, etc). I think they keep it close against a LA Rams team who has a banged up unproven QB, a backup kicker, and a young coach and roster with a lot to prove.
Jaguars -9
Do I have to take Blake Bortles in a playoff game? I guess, at least he’s thrown the ball OK for good fantasy stats the last few weeks. I actually like the Over 39 (-105) in this one as both Jacksonville and Buffalo are top scoring defenses and both QBs are top at throwing TAINTs.
And of course, the 3 result +135 teaser (please don’t fuck me Alex Smith):
Chiefs -9
BUF/JAX Over 39
Saints -7
Hilton Contest Week 17
Browns +11
49ers -3
Giants +3
Broncos -3.5
Dolphins +2.5
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 46-30-4
Week 17 NFL and a Parlay
First, a parlay (with an NCAA bowl game) (+168):
New England Patriots -1600
Washington Redskins -155
Baltimore Ravens -500
Auburn -360
Now the Week 17 NFL picks:
Washington +3.5 (-110)
This is more of a hedge, if anything, against my season under on Washington (-7.5 wins). Otherwise, a nothing burger of a game involving two really shitty football teams.
Bears at Vikings Under 39.5
The under has hit in all of the Vikings’ home games where they were big favorites. They will be resting people most likely, and with the hapless Bears offense, this will resemble the first preseason game of the year.
SF +4.5
Rams are resting everybody. They might also unintentionally try and lose this game just so they can be in Philly’s bracket (Foles) over Minnesota’s.
I might also punt on UFC 219 this weekend, if I can find away to step away from the poker tables in Montreal.
Week 16 NFL (and new podcast!)
First, a new podcast with Lou is up:
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miracle-covers-122017
Here are the picks for the week:
Seattle +4
I don’t think the Cowboys are 4 point better than anybody not named the Browns, even the banged up Seahawks.
Browns ML +230
The ML is now at +185. If they don’t win this week, they will go 0-16. Also Bears vs Browns Under 37 as its snowy af today in Chicago.
DET at CIN Over 43.5 (-110)
Both of these teams have given up, and the defenses are banged up. Should lead to points.
TEASER +135:
BUF +13
PHI -9
PIT -9
DFS:
Hilton Contest Week 16
Bengals +4.5
Bucs +10
Cardinals -3.5
Bills +11.5
Saints -5.5
Last Week: 2-1-2
Season: 42-29-4
Week 15 NFL
Patriots -3 (+105)
Titans ML +115
Cleveland +7.5
TEASER +240:
Philly -7
LA Rams +1
NE/PIT Over 54
Titans +1
DFS:
Hilton Contest Week 15
Titans +2
Raiders +3
Bucs +6.5
Bears +5.5
Jaguars -10.5
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 40-28-2
Week 14 NFL
Cleveland ML +125
That time of year to keep betting Cleveland. They are currently +345 to go reverse undefeated.
OAK at KC Under 48.5 (-115)
This should be a playoff-type slugfest today. Loser goes home, essentially.
Baltimore +5
The games vs Pittsburgh are always a rock fight. Should be a 3 point game.
TEASER +150:
Cincy -6
Chargers -6
Cleveland +3
DFS:
Hilton Contest Picks Week 14
Jaguars -2.5
Browns +3
Rams -2
Dolphins +11
Ravens +5
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 37-26-2
Week 13 NFL
Oakland -9 (-105)
Reports are Bob McAdoo will be fired after today’s game. Lame duck coaches are never good for a team’s morale. Also, Geno Smith is starting. Yes, that Geno Smith.
Patriots at Bills Over 48
Gronk always kills the Bills in his hometown of Buffalo.
Cleveland +14
That time of year where I am going to bet Cleveland every week until they finally win a game.
TEASER +150:
Oakland -9
New England -9
Tennessee -7
