Category: Hockey
Thursday
Today might be our busiest day of the NHL season. We have a total of 5 game on the board at the moment. Not sure if they will all be plays or not. First in tackle football, the Rams line is up to -6 in some places from opening at 3 or 3.5. Just like it’s difficult to win money on double digit favorites, it’s just as difficult to win after multi point line moves. This is bookmakers begging for some Arizona action as the Rams are the “correct” side, but it’s a pass at even 5 much less 6.
NHL so far we are running back both teams from Tuesday:
Calgary @ Buffalo +145
New Jersey +115 @ Philadelphia
One west cost game confirmed:
Minnesota +115 @ San Jose
The last two up in the air are Phoenix and Ottawa. Will update here with any plays
UPDATE: Passed on Ottawa, going with Nashville @ Phoenix +140
Wednesday
Very close to a 2-0 day yesterday as Buffalo won 1-0 effectively aparcar el autobus in an effort that would make many Italian soccer managers proud. Devils lost in a shootout 3-2 behind a goalie making his first NHL start, Keith Kincaid, who mentioned in his post game interview that he doesn’t really like shootouts. He’s on the correct team as the Devils are approximately 1 for their last billion. So 1-1 +0.8 yesterday for us and 22-26 +1.51 for the season. Hopefully upward and onward from here.
Nothing doing tonight but there look to be some options for tomorrow.
Longshot Tuesday
Apologies for the late post, I was waiting on line moves. NBA was a winner last night and the Falcons covered even though Green Bay had the option to take a miracle push there at the end. Two NHL plays tonight:
Chicago @ New Jersey +175
Kings @ Buffalo +180
UFC 181
UFC 181 is tonight; their best cards are always usually around July 4th and XMAS time. This one is no exception as we get TWO great title fights tonight. Its one of those rare cards I’d recommend casual or non-MMA fans to check out and watch.
Here are my plays:
Duffee vs Hamilton Over Rounds 1.5 +160
Duffee hasn’t fought since 2012 due to injury, and all of his fights have ended in KO (lose or win). Hamilton has never been KO’d, only submitted. The majority of the money is on the under here, but I expect both fighters to come out conservatively because the loser of this fight probably gets canned from the UFC, and no one wants to leave themselves open early.
Pettis vs Melendez Goes the Distance -14o
Super stoked for the fight; it’s the all-around game of Melendes vs the athletic kickboxing of Pettis. Melendez has never been KO’d or submitted, and I think both fighters cancel each other out here and we get a 5 round war as both men are good on the feet with defense and Octagon awareness.
Lawler +170 vs Hendricks
This started at +150. I have no idea why its gone up; Hendricks is coming off a biceps tear he suffered in the 1st match between these two (great fight) and had to furiously cut 22 lbs of weight in 3 mths (and you have to be at exact weight for title fights). Hendricks barely made weight in their first fight and it effected him in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Lawler’s sprawling has gotten better, hasbeaten his last 2 top-10 opponents, and he is better on his feet than Hendricks (a 2-time NCAA champ at OK State). I expect a Robbie Lawler win tonight, and then we can have an awesome rubber match in March as really, this fight based off of the last one since it was so close, is more like Rounds 6-10 rather than a new fight.
NHL BONUS:
Montreal +105 at Dallas
I am also sadly leaning on Arizona +120 at home to my banged up Bruins, who have lost their last 3 games on a West Coast Swing, and have been outscored 12-6 in this stretch. 87% of the money is on Bruins as well:
Most Lopsided #NHL Games Tonight
87% on #Bruins
85% on #Lightning
73% on #RedWings
70% on #Panthershttp://t.co/zq3ewdfc7m— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 6, 2014
Today is also MIAA Super Saturday for Massachusetts HS football (no action) but to help you feel old, here’ Vince Wilfork’s kid blowing someone up on special teams:
Kinda cool. Vince wilforks kid #31 blocking for Andre tippet's kid #20 #Xaverian https://t.co/uRJDBXIAUc
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) December 6, 2014
Friday
Back on the plus side with a 2-1 +1.86 evening. Columbus somehow won and Calgary somehow lost. Columbus allowed 52 shots while in Buffalo, Tampa goalie Ben Bishop earned a shutout only facing 13. Nothing doing this evening, not even some poor NBA bets.
TNF
First, thanks to the Celtics and Pistons for going into OT last night at 88 a piece and then scoring 38 points in a wild 5 minute OT to secure the Over. 8-0 now! #miraclecover
Here are my plays tonight:
NFL:
Chicago/Dallas Over 51
Two of the worse defenses in the league. They both played last Thursday so no one really is in the mood to tackle, if they actually could tackle. Weather is a crisp 34 degrees, no wind (rare for Chicago) The only fly in the ointment here is if both teams play flat because they just played last Thursday (but remember: the NFL REALLY cares about player safety). Speaking of safeties, I’m also take a prop: first score is FG or Safety at +145.
NHL:
Going with Lou’s suggestions: Colorado +135 at Calgary (also works as a hedge as we have their season points under) and in a parlay at 3-to-1 with -150 Nashville, facing Martin Broudeur who comes out of psuedo-retirement as a member of the St.Louis Blues. He joins a long list of great HOF players who symbolize themselves with one team and end their careers (usually in a blaze of crap for one year) with another team where those jerseys get sold for $5 at the discount section at a Dick’ Sporting Goods store. Noteables:
Jerry Rice (Seahawks)
Ray Bourque (Colorado)
Emmitt Smith (Cardinals)
Michael Jordan (Wizards)
Brett Favre (NY Jets)
Karl Malone (Lakers)
Joe Montana (KC Chiefs)
Thursday
Time to get back in action tonight with a full slate of hockey games, several of them playable. Let’s get right to it:
New Jersey +161 @ Toronto
Columbus +125 @ Florida
Colorado +135 @ Calgary
Unlike last week, I actually like all of these. Vancouver @ Pittsburgh and Boston @ San Jose look like the most entertaining games of the evening. Nashville is not a bad shout if you’re up for playing a bigger favorite and fading Brodeur’s return with St. Louis. Dallas is my pick tonight in NFL with no real conviction whatsoever.
Wednesday
Nothing at all this evening. Washington and New Jersey were losers and Carolina held on to win 2-1. 19-23 -1.1 on the hockey season. Full slate tomorrow
Tuesday
Last night’s MNF game was an exercise where no one won who watched the game, so taking the points and then watching CSI and/or falling asleep was the +EV in life move. NHL gets going in about 20 minutes so I’ll keep this short. One play tonight which is Vancouver @ Washington -115. Two other games which are worthy of your consideration are New Jersey +180 @ Pittsburgh and Carolina +120 hosting Nashville. I’m only at breakeven on this hockey season after the recent downswing and hopefully will get back on the plus side soon
Monday
It’s currently raining and the temperature is steadily dropping in New York this evening, so get ready for some additional fumbling! Jets are the play tonight if you can find +7, though I am personally passing even if it gets there. As mentioned Tampa was a winner yesterday but somehow conspired to only cover and not win outright.
Nothing doing in hockey tonight thankfully, though Tampa @ Rangers should at least be good to watch. NBA because I’m an idiot:
Minnesota +15 @ Clippers
