Category: Basketball
NBA Playoffs
I can’t be bothered to bet any of these, but I wanted to get my thoughts and picks on the record, so we can see how terrible they wind up after the fact. I did make a good-faith attempt to look up the series odds, but couldn’t easily find them without signing up for a bunch of BS. Anyway, here we go:
Western Conference
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
This is the series I am the best informed about, since I’ve watched most of the Suns games post-KD trade. First, my general thoughts on the Suns: This Suns team definitely has flaws, but they also have some significant strengths. I’ll take their “best game” over anyone’s except Milwaukee. With that said, +480 odds for the title are too short IMO. If you could guarantee me they have no injuries in the playoffs, I might like those odds. But both Durant and Paul are high-risk in that area, and Booker has a history of lingering hamstring injuries – including in last year’s playoffs.
Injuries aside, the Suns are good enough to beat anyone, but not so good that any series should be considered a lock. I think they dodged a serious bullet with Playoff P being out for the whole first round. Zubac has consistently matched up very well with Ayton, even when Ayton’s playing well. And Ty Lue tends to get the better of the coaching matchups. With Paul George, I’d consider this series a toss-up. Without him, the pick is Suns in 5 or 6.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
I’m one of the skeptics who won’t believe in this Nuggets team till they prove me wrong, but it’s hard fto imagine them losing to any of the Pelicans/T-Wolves/Thunder. So my pick is Nuggets in 4 or 5.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
No pick here – this is a complete toss-up for me depending on which Grizzlies team shows up AND which Lakers team shows up. I don’t particularly like this Grizzlies team, but I’m also a certified Laker Hater, so either way, I get to celebrate someone losing.
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
I can’t make a pick here, either, but I’m going to try to watch most of these games. The Kings looked legitimately very good this year, but it’s hard to go against the defending champs just as they’re getting the band back together. Very curious to see how this plays out, and I’ll be rooting for the Kings in solidarity.
Eastern Conference
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
I don’t think the opponent matters here; this is a Bucks win all the way. I could see the Bucks getting bored and dropping a game or 2, so I wouldn’t bet the sweep. But even if Giannis gets hurt in Game 1, I still think the Bucks advance. Bucks in 4, 5, or 6.
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
The Celtics are way too inconsistent for a team this good, and I worry about Tatum’s decision making in crunch time. (Last year, he sometimes looked more concerned with trying to force a Jordan/Kobe hero-ball highlight than just getting a good shot. Not sure if that’s something he’s gotten better at.) But it would be a shock if this mid Hawks team got to 3 wins. Celtics in 4 or 5.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
This is another series I’ll try to watch most of – I’ll be rooting for my boys Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson (aka The Twins). Still love them both, and wish them the best. But do they have a chance against one of the championship contenders? On paper I’d say no, but there’s always the possibility of Harden doing a full-on flameout. I’ll say 76ers in 5, but more of a guess than a pick.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
Go Knicks! I haven’t watch a single game from either team all year, so I can’t pretend to know anything about this series.
NCAA Saturday
Loyola Chicago -7 (-105)
Villanova vs Baylor OVER 142.5
UFC BONUS:
Thomas Almeida +250
FRANCIS NGANNOU wins by KO, TKO, DQ +100
March Madness Sunday
Villanova -5.5
Florida vs Oral Roberts OVER 147
Syracuse vs W.Virginia UNDER 147
TEASER 4pt +125:
Oregon St +6.5
Loyola Chicago +7.5
Houston vs Rutgers OVER 132
NCAA March Madness Saturday
Georgetown +5.5
St.Bonaventure ML +115
Iona + 16.5
Virginia -7
Maryland +140
NC Greensboro vs Florida State OVER 144 -115
NCAA March Madness Friday
NCAA March Madness is back! The main games this year start on a Friday, which is weird….but glad to back to be gambling on teams I have mostly no idea about.
Purdue vs North Texas Over 125.5 -105
Winthrop +6.5
Loyola Chicago -5.5
Morehead State ML +600
PARLAY @ +124:
Ohio State ML -1695
Baylor ML -4545
Purdue vs North Texas Over 125.5
Houston ML -3448
Illinois ML -3448
NIT Special:
Buffalo @ Colorado State UNDER 153 -110
NFL Wild Card Weekend Saturday
The quest to go undefeated against the spread will be harder this year, with 7 playoff teams instead of 6 for each conference for 14 total. But the parody of the field, along with COVID, makes this one of the harder fields to prognosticate.
Here’s my Saturday picks and plays; anything I actually bet on with have as asterisk on it.
Buffalo -7 (-105)*
Taking Buffalo because of the favorable juice, they’ll have some fans at home, the offense has been on fire in the last month and the defense has improved since losing a buzzer beater to Arizona in November. The only concern is their run defense; Indy’s Jonathan Taylor has been running the ball great lately. But I anticipate the Bills to stack the box and make Philip Rivers throw the ball vs (in Bill Rafferty voice) man-to-man down the field, which when he does, makes me feel old as balls that’s how uncomfortable it is. I also will have two props: Josh Allen first TD scorer at +600 and Josh Allen OVER rushing yards 39 (+105).
Seahawks -3
Toughest game to pick of the weekend, IMO. Russell Wilson looked great early, but he and the offense have sputtered into the end of the year. Their secondary is so bad, they call it the “Legion of Room”. At least they can tackle. Whilst their defense maybe the best in the field, the Rams’ offense is probably the 3rd worst in the field (behind Chicago and Washington). I don’t know if they are better off at QB with the backup Wolford, or the flaccid Jared Goff (who is questionable and a gametime decision). Taking the points at home for Seattle for the pick, but even then their great homefield is waned due to no fans. Don’t bet on this game.
Tampa Bay -9
Started at 8, now at 9. Tampa has more talent, especially at QB where it’s old ass Tom Brady vs Old and Broken Down Alex Smith. Taylor Heinicke may even see action in this game according to Rivera if Smith struggles. WFT’s front seven is awesome; they will have to have a monster game to keep it close. But I anticipate too many 3-and-outs for Washington and I just don’t know where they find points. I will say, Brady is 1-5 vs winning teams this year; however, WFT is not a winning team with a 7-9 record, getting a home game due to winning the NFC LEast. For a prop, I am taking the first score to be a Field Goal at +150. I am also teasing Tampa (-9), Pittsburgh (-6) and Buffalo (-7) at +150.
DFS:
NBA Bonus:
Phoenix +3.5
Miracle Covers COVID Special
We got a new podcast!
Lou (@miraclecovers) and Sean (@Seanismoney) talk about our new COVID world as it pertains to betting, our thoughts on the Champions League restart, why the NBA bubble is fun and our plays going into the playoffs, why MLB baseball is strange with no fans where no one under the age of 40 is watching, and why the NCAA sucks.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miracle-cover-covid-special
Super Bowl LIV
First, the props:
First play to be a Pass – YES @ +120
I bet this every year. I feel like these coaches try to get a quick, easy completion to settle the QB into the game. Also, people talked a lot of shit about Jimmy G only having 8 passes last game, so if the 49ers get the ball first, I think Kyle Shanahan calls a pass as a “fuck you” to those doubters. Chiefs get the ball first? They are passing. They pass all the time, it’s an Andy Reid team. That being said…
Mahomes Over Completions 24.5 @ -130
He probably throws the ball 50+ times this game, especially if they get behind. They will also use little dump offs/screens to the RBs as an extension of the running game to slow down a great 49ers front 4. That being said…
Damien Williams Over Receptions 3.5 @ -130 and Alt Line 4.5 @ +160
He had 5 last game vs the Titans. The 49ers only blitz 20% of the time, and they run a system similar to the Dan Quinn Falcons or Kris Richard/Pete Carroll Seahawks….and in both of those Super Bowls, RBs Shane Vereen and James White had huge games. I expect the Seahawks to play a lot of Cover 3 and keep this explosive Chiefs offense in front of them to tackle. The only wrinkle is if LeSean McCoy (out last two games due to illness) gets a lot of looks; but I think the 49ers will know if he’s in the game that a screen or wide run is coming, where Damien Williams gets 1st and 2nd down looks where he will have more “valve” route opportunities off the cuff.
Will There be a Successful 2 Point Conversion? Yes @ +220
Both of these offenses are too good, and I think it will be a high scoring game.
Which team will commit the first penalty of the game? – Chiefs -110
They have committed a ton of penalties in the last two games. They do make a lot of mistakes. Watch Frank Clark get a penalty after talking all that shit about Dee Ford’s offsides in the AFC title game last year.
MVP Props:
Mahomes +115
Mostert +1200 (now at +550!)
TD Props:
Anytime TD: Kendrick Bourne +250
Seems to be a favorite for Jimmy G in the red zone.
First TD: Blake Bell +5500
Why Not? Since I also have the Cousin Sal Gary Russell special: Blake Bell Over Receiving Yards 1.5 -160. The TE had 2 targets vs the Texans, with one catch for a TD.
Side Props:
Which commercial will appear first: Donald Trump or Michael Bloomberg? – Bloomberg +205
This rich dickwad has spent over $30 million so far on the campaign. He’s also had a ton of commercials during the last month of the season. Glad to know someone will be setting more money on fire than me on Sunday for less than 3% of the general vote.
The Pick:
49ers +1.5
Over 53.5 (now 54.5)
Also putting both line and OVER in a teaser (-120). I have the bigger bet on the OVER; this should be a wild game with lots of big plays. I even think the scoreless quarter can happen (+750) AND the over still hitting! I like the 49ers as they are the more balanced, complete team. Plus, I can see the Chiefs puking on themselves at some point because, well, they are the Chiefs and it is Andy Reid…even if he is due.
NBA Bonus:
Lakers -6 (-110)
Summer Podcast! EPL, NFL, WNBA, and more!
We come back for a Summer Podcast! Lou and I talk our fun summer of betting on women’s sports, the wild cricket final that ended in a tie, some NFL totals, and who we think is going to suck ass in the English Premier League this year.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miracle-covers-08072019-2019-summer-bonanza
