Super Bowl LIV
First, the props:
First play to be a Pass – YES @ +120
I bet this every year. I feel like these coaches try to get a quick, easy completion to settle the QB into the game. Also, people talked a lot of shit about Jimmy G only having 8 passes last game, so if the 49ers get the ball first, I think Kyle Shanahan calls a pass as a “fuck you” to those doubters. Chiefs get the ball first? They are passing. They pass all the time, it’s an Andy Reid team. That being said…
Mahomes Over Completions 24.5 @ -130
He probably throws the ball 50+ times this game, especially if they get behind. They will also use little dump offs/screens to the RBs as an extension of the running game to slow down a great 49ers front 4. That being said…
Damien Williams Over Receptions 3.5 @ -130 and Alt Line 4.5 @ +160
He had 5 last game vs the Titans. The 49ers only blitz 20% of the time, and they run a system similar to the Dan Quinn Falcons or Kris Richard/Pete Carroll Seahawks….and in both of those Super Bowls, RBs Shane Vereen and James White had huge games. I expect the Seahawks to play a lot of Cover 3 and keep this explosive Chiefs offense in front of them to tackle. The only wrinkle is if LeSean McCoy (out last two games due to illness) gets a lot of looks; but I think the 49ers will know if he’s in the game that a screen or wide run is coming, where Damien Williams gets 1st and 2nd down looks where he will have more “valve” route opportunities off the cuff.
Will There be a Successful 2 Point Conversion? Yes @ +220
Both of these offenses are too good, and I think it will be a high scoring game.
Which team will commit the first penalty of the game? – Chiefs -110
They have committed a ton of penalties in the last two games. They do make a lot of mistakes. Watch Frank Clark get a penalty after talking all that shit about Dee Ford’s offsides in the AFC title game last year.
MVP Props:
Mahomes +115
Mostert +1200 (now at +550!)
TD Props:
Anytime TD: Kendrick Bourne +250
Seems to be a favorite for Jimmy G in the red zone.
First TD: Blake Bell +5500
Why Not? Since I also have the Cousin Sal Gary Russell special: Blake Bell Over Receiving Yards 1.5 -160. The TE had 2 targets vs the Texans, with one catch for a TD.
Side Props:
Which commercial will appear first: Donald Trump or Michael Bloomberg? – Bloomberg +205
This rich dickwad has spent over $30 million so far on the campaign. He’s also had a ton of commercials during the last month of the season. Glad to know someone will be setting more money on fire than me on Sunday for less than 3% of the general vote.
The Pick:
49ers +1.5
Over 53.5 (now 54.5)
Also putting both line and OVER in a teaser (-120). I have the bigger bet on the OVER; this should be a wild game with lots of big plays. I even think the scoreless quarter can happen (+750) AND the over still hitting! I like the 49ers as they are the more balanced, complete team. Plus, I can see the Chiefs puking on themselves at some point because, well, they are the Chiefs and it is Andy Reid…even if he is due.
NBA Bonus:
Lakers -6 (-110)
