Miracle Covers

Early Overs

Start of season Overs are scalding hot ATM. They have hit somewhere in the area of 2/3rds of the time, and then last night was just an over orgy. There appear to be a few exceptions that I can see…Mets, Rockies, White Sox, and Athletics really jump off the page as not joining in on the run-fun. For the next couple nights we are going to track (and most likely bet) the following…

TT Unders for NYM, COL, CWS and OAK

Gm Overs for everyone else

Let’s see how this plays out. Will update.

MLB Over/Unders – A New Twist on an Old Theme

Normally in this space we would write about a half-dozen or so season-long Over/Under picks…friend of the program Van Tran suggested he and I do a snake-draft on these this year, so below I am going to record the results of that draft and add a few thoughts when they come to me. We automatically gave ourselves Overs on our respective teams, (Mets and LAD)…I had first pick.

PD #1 – SF Giants Over 84.5

VT #2 – O’s Over 90.5

VT #3 – Tigers Under 81.5

PD #4 – StL Under 84.5 I borderline despise myself for this pick, it is as anti-sharp as a pick can get. But that doesn’t mean it wont happen…the way I rationalize the selection is Vegas was going to get enough money placed on StL to win the division that this O/U had to be in this ballpark. In a very sick way I would have preferred taking this Under @ like 79 or something.

PD #5 – Padres Under 83.5

VT #6 – LAA Under 71.5

VT #7 – Marlins Under 77.5

PD #8 – Nationals Over 66.5

PD #9 – Pirates Over 76.5

VT #10 – ATL Over 101.5

VT #11 – Astros Over 92.5

PD #12 – TOR Under 87.5

PD #13 – A’s Over 57.5

VT #14 – CWS Under 61.5

VT #15 – TB Over 85.5

PD #16 – Red Sox Over 77.5 Eno Sarris from The Athletic is way higher on the potential for the Boston rotation than essentially anyone else Ive come across, and I usually trust what he thinks. Also Alex Cora is one of like 3-5 managers in baseball that I think makes a tangible positive difference to a teams performance and results.

PD #17 – NYY Under 92.5

VT #18 – Rockies Under 60.5

VT #19 – Reds Under 82.5

PD #20 – CHC Under 84.5

PD #21 – D’backs Over 84.5

VT #22 – TEX Over 88.5

VT #23 – Brewers Under 77.5 This is going to be a race to the finish-line in my opinion…All indications point to Milwaukee being way worse this year than in the recent past. How long can the players on the field keep the boat afloat as it is sinking towards the end of the season?

PD #24 – Philly Under 90.5

PD #25 – Cleve Under 80.5

VT #26 – KC Over 73.5 This and the Milwaukee line are why Vegas is evil. Everyone knows MIL will likely be worse, so Vegas drops a lead weight on their win total and asks, “How low are you willing to go?” KC has a young, fun team that is going to be better than last year. “You want to root for their Over this year? Well lets see them win EIGHTEEN MORE GAMES! HA!”

VT #27 – Seattle Over 87.5

PD #28 – Minn Over 86.5

PD #29 – NYM Over 81.5

VT #30 – LAD Over 103.5

Over/Under # of Over/Under Picks (.5)

And the winner is under…I simply do not love anything this year. But Ill be around…

MLB Over/Unders

A positive year overall on these in ’22. The Yankees under pick was about as bad as it gets, but the AL Central stuff we played came through. Key to the rationale on the Central bets last year was the idea that the White Sox were being seemingly (some would say substantially) overvalued, especially relative to their division rivals. Heading into ’23, preliminary research overwhelmingly and repeatedly wants to lead us down a somewhat similar path. This time, it is the Dodgers looking vulnerable…Buehler out until very late, Lux the entire season. Do Tyler Anderson and Gonsolin have real chances of repeating LYs results? Signing JD Martinez as a DH? Chris Taylor’s ’22? JASON HEYWARD?? BUT, before we start chucking bets around, below, you can see 2 things on the NL West…the Dodgers Under has big juice, while simultaneously, most of their NL West mates have juice on their Over. In other words, folks seem very hip to this sitch.

It was largely assumed last year the CWS would ultimately control a division loaded with crappy franchises. Like LA this year, Chicago had flaws in ’22, but they were subtle enough to miss, or easily ignored given the accepted weakness of their division. The NL West is not giving us a similar narrative gift this Spring Training. The potential Dodger issues are relatively glaring, and teams like the Padres, Giants and D-backs are seen as capable of exploiting them. Indeed, the Dodgers Under may get action from us, but as a loose rule, its really difficult to like “loud” bets, and this is about as loud as these type of bets get. At any rate, we will see how the next few weeks shake-out. Ideally we will land on some plays that are quietly sitting in a corner with their head down. Here are where things stand…heavy juice noted.

ARIZ : 74.5 (O -150)

ATL : 95.5

BALT : 76.5 (O -150)

BOS : 77.5 (O -140)

CHC : 77.5 (O -140)

CWS : 83.5 (U -160)

CIN : 65.5

CLE : 86.5

COL : 65.5

DET : 69.5

HOU : 96.5

KC : 69.5

LAA : 81.5

LAD : 97.5 (U -145)

MIA : 75.5

MIL : 85.5

MINN : 83.5

NYM : 94.5

NYY : 94.5

OAK : 59.5

PHI : 89.5 (U -140)

PITT : 66.5

SD : 93.5 (O -140)

SEA : 87.5

SFG : 80.5 (O -140)

StL : 88.5

TB : 88.5

TEX : 82.5

TOR : 92.5

WAS : 59.5

TTIB (4)

Innings Management 

Mike Matheny has a bit of a questionable rap when it comes to in-game decisions.  I honestly cant really speak to that but I think we may have something on him now with innings management stuff.  This is from an AP article following a strong start a couple weeks ago for Casey Mize in Detroit.

Mize tried to avoid manager A.J. Hinch at the end of the fourth, but it didn’t work.

“I was hoping to stay away from him, because I wanted to go another inning,” he said. “But we’re being careful with innings right now, and I understand that.”

Mize was playing Hide-and-Seek!  Now Peralta in Milwaukee.  Counsell pulls him mid-shutout last night…

“We’re just trying to conserve innings as we go,” manager Craig Counsell said. “He threw 50-some pitches last time, a little more this time and he’ll be full go next time. We were hoping to be a little shorter today.”

Now lets go to a post-game interview with Matheny after their July 20th game.    

“We knew at some point we were going to have to take a break with our young pitchers, for sure,” Matheny said. “Instead of limiting them from the beginning, kind of let’s go, let’s pitch, let’s just see how they feel, and if at any point we need to take a pause, we do it. And this isn’t necessarily a shutdown as much as let’s just make sure that he’s feeling how he should be feeling and watch closely, use the medical team, use sports science, and figure out when it would be best to get him back in there.”

That was a quote on the day one of his promising young arms, Brady Singer, was put on the IL, and 3 days after he was rocked (2 IPs, 7 ERs).  Matheny has cred in his dealings with pitchers considering his very successful catching and coaching careers, but his thinking here seems outdated.  Hinch and Counsell come across as way more pro-active with limiting workload with their young-ins.  Matheny would appear to favor the approach that as long as you swoop in directly after an issue has begun to emerge, thats an acceptable approach to innings management. 

Again, the purpose of this series is to pin down things that are true.  We honestly dont even know if Singer is legitimately injured, or if KC and Matheny are just creating something to give him a rest after getting shelled.  What we can say confidently; of the 3 young pitchers discussed here, the only one that has gone on IL this year is the one with the coach saying “let’s go, let’s pitch, let’s just see how they feel.”  The other 2 are humming along.

 

MLB Over/Unders

Lets dig right in…

Nationals (Under 51.5%) +103

Players like Soto, Trea, Robles give the false impression that Washington is generating young talent assembly line style, but this is an old organization.  It would seem quite possible this team is a fairly substantial seller @ the Trade Deadline.  Mr Scherzer happens to be reaching the end of his long-term deal, the temptation to sell will be real if team is floundering.  The farm system is quite poor, and this segues to another issue for this year, lack of fresh capable reinforcements to call on.  Kieboom has shown nothing to indicate he is legit…Side Note on Kieboom, he got Lasik surg over Off Season, how awkward has that conversation have to be for a coach to recommend a pro athlete get eye surgery.  “No, no, we are not saying you are bad, no, no, not at all…how many fingers am I holding up?”  SPs ERAs were awful last year so team went out and got middle-aged name Jon Lester.  If Josh Bell is mediocre (quite possible), or if Robles does not reproduce his 2019, this ‘sounds pretty good on paper’ lineup will struggle.  Super, super tough division.  And speaking of that super tough division…

Phillies (Over 50.5%) +104

2 bets so far and 2 plus monies…moderately terrifying.  Anywhoots, this pick is primarily based on some positive regression, some quality signings, and Dave Dombrowski.  “The team’s defense was a serious handicap in 2020. The Phillies allowed a .344 batting average on balls in play, the worst since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders”  There are few guarantees in sports gambling, but I would bet my life that this # will lower substantially this year.  And more encouraging is that these issues were not really based on SP stuff…”PHI starters last season ranked 10th in the majors in ERA (4.08) and 14th in WHIP (1.29) — and they were the best in the NL East”  Bullpen issues are real and destructive, but they are also light-years easier to correct than rotation stuff.  The team brings in Bradley, Kintzler, and Alvarado and I believe they are going to move Velasquez there full-time as well.  Dave Dombrowski is not working in his mid-60s so he can watch a team undergo a 4 year rebuild.

Astros (Under 54.5%) +108

Another plus money bet…”Maybe the biggest surprise of the Astros’ offseason was that they didn’t acquire a starting pitcher.”  That is a quote from The Athletic BEFORE Whitley out for season and Valdez injury.  Now you say to me, buddy, they signed Odorizzi.  That is true enough, but the double-edge sword on that is the organization is now apparently close to maxing out payroll with Correa entering a contract year…(No pricey reinforcements on the way).  Michael Brantley has a pretty impressive injury history obviously.  If he misses time this OF unit does not inspire confidence.  And because everything is a circle…

Tigers (Over 42.5%) -105

AJ Hinch certainly does not come off looking like a saint from Monitor-gate, Bang-gate, DontRipMyShirt-gate…but he does not come out of it looking awful either.  It gets revealed that twice he took a bat to one of those monitors…he probably should have done more…What Would Bill Belichick do…it was dirty, it was scuzzy, but it showed that Hinch 1) Didnt care for violating the rules  2) Took pro-active action to display his displeasure  3) Eventually said “fuck it.  We are being paid to win ballgames.”  Numerous beat reporters have noted a positive joo joo in the clubhouse with Hinch around.  This club has a lot of quality young talent.  I think they make positive strides this year, going something like 74-88, and get consistently better next couple years.

MLB Over/Unders

Vegas continues to proactively nip potential payout issues early by doing season O/Us based on Win %.  Hopefully everything continues to go smoothly, I am posting these now and will revisit in a week or 2 to view movement and make picks.  I’d imagine the numbers will stay pretty straight forward with most adjustments being made on juice.  As there are plenty of lines with a half percentage base, such as 49.5%, it would seem these lines are not getting rounded at all.  If you have the over @ 55% and it comes in at 54.8%, you can kick rocks.

ARI : 45.5% (O -138) ~ 73.5

ATL : 56.5% ~ 91.5

BAL : 39.5% ~ 64

BOS : 50.5% (U -150) ~ 82

CHC : 48.5% (U -130) ~ 78.5

CWS : 55% ~ 89

CIN : 49.5% ~ 80

CLE : 49% (O -145) ~ 79.5

COL : 40% ~ 65

DET : 42.5% ~ 69

HOU : 54.5% ~ 88

KC : 46.5% ~ 75.5

LAA : 51.5% ~ 83.5

LAD : 62% (O -154) ~ 100.5

MIA : 45% (U -129) ~ 73

MIL : 51% ~ 82.5

MIN : 54.5% (O -138) ~ 88.5

NYM : 56% (O -131) ~ 90.5

NYY : 59% ~ 95.5

OAK : 52% (O -137) ~ 84

PHI : 50.5% ~ 82

PIT : 36.5% (U -126) ~ 59

SD : 59% ~ 95.5

SEA : 45% ~ 73

SFG : 46% (U -135) ~ 74.5

StL : 53% ~ 86

TB : 52% (O -140) ~ 84

TEX : 42.5% (U -144) ~ 69

TOR : 54% ~ 87.5

WAS : 51.5% ~ 83.5