Author: pat
NFL Plays
The bet to make on Thursday was the Over. Negative amounts of D at times.
Bills/Steelers Under 42.5 +100 16
Lions -1 -103 27
Side note to be examined in the future, pretty fucked up lines here for 1 Q
| Sun 11/10 | 215 | Cincinnati Bengals | -0.5 +156 | +101 | Over 7.5 +105 | ||
| 10:00 AM | 216 | Baltimore Ravens | +0.5 -177 | -114 | Under 7.5 -118 |
Bengals 1st Half ML -105 19
All for this moment. Made add more before GameTime
****UPDATE****
2nd Half Bet Raiders/Giants Under 21 +100 @ 15
****UPDATE THE DEUCE****
Positives so far today. 4 o’clock plays
PARLAY 49ers -6 -105 Texans +3.5 -104 @ 14
****3rd Update****
Bucs ML +118 @ 14
NFL Play
As Louis said, lot of stuff going on out there tonight. For the most part I am going to just be a very interested spectator, which in Vegas speak means, “lame guy who is taking up a chair in the sports book.” The one play I am making is in contradiction to Louis with Wash -1 -106 @ 21.
Month to Date : +46.45
NFL Plays
These plays are @ 22
Falcons +9.5 -113
Minn +9.5 -114
Saints -5.5 -105
Tenn -3 -104
These plays are @ 14
Titans/Rams Under 40.5 -108
Vikings/Cowboys Under 50.5 -102
Month To Date : -3.21
****UPDATE****
These are @ 16
Tampa +15.5 -101
Patriots -6 +100
Browns ML +106
****UPDATE #2****
Good day today so far. Let’s try to keep the mojo.
Texans -1 +102 @ 22
****UPDATE the Third****
Tough beat in the Texans game. Cannot complain too much as our Viking/Cowboy under required a missed extra point towards the end to hit. Tonight we go with Bears +10 -109 @ 21
NCAA Football Plays
Two to start, more will follow. A hot name in ACC football not playing for a marquee team is Michael Campanaro. Apparently Wake Forest about 3.5 games into the season threw out their entire game plan and switched to a more aerial based attack and Campanaro has been doing just fine. Syracuse is coming off a bye which is problematic on our end, but life isn’t perfect. Purdue usually plays Ohio St tough. That and an exciting QB prospect for Purdue, that’s where we’ll take our chances.
Wake Forest +4 106 @ Syracuse 18 Units
Ohio St @ Purdue +31.5 -104 17 Units
***UPDATE***
Ohio St pick was a dud, DOA. Got a bit unlucky with Wake Forest, the poor bastard I wrote about above did something to his collarbone. Forward.
Pitt @ Georgia Tech Under 52.5 -106 @ 18
Miami @ FSU Under 64 -106 @ 18
Soccer Plays
If you read Fulham blogs, and yes, these days I actually do, there is an oppressively negative atmosphere. There are brief eruptions of “Maybe things are not that bad!” followed by weeks of claiming they are actually worse. For years Fulham was a tough place to play, not so much anymore. The only chance I see Fulham having is Berbs summoning some inner Man U hate and getting 2 goals out of essentially nowhere. And in the big boy affair later, Liverpool is playing at an exceptionally high level currently. Enough that it is worth the gamble of betting against Arsenal at Emirates.
Plays
ML Man U -186 @ Fulham 22 Units
ML Liverpool +245 @ Arsenal 14 Units
Screaming Hangover
But I am boozing again so it’s fine. I will live. These are plays I have and I kind of like them. I have to write these down or otherwise I am likely to make opposing bets.
Cleveland +7.5 -119 @ KC
Buffalo @ NO Saints -11 -103
Miami (+6) @ NE
Jets (+5) @ Cincy
Pitt @ Oak Under 40.5 -102
NCAA Play
Just one quick play. I have…
Missouri +7 -104 @ Georgia
Georgia has a few people out today and Missouri is sneaky good. Even though Georgia can score in bunches I think I have more faith in the Missouri offense at this exact nanosecond. And also a touchdown line in this game is about the most unimaginative thing Vegas could have thrown out here. I mean put some effort into it!
Quick MLB Divisional Note
I had bet the Rangers in the first play-in game. The triple reasoning was a) Rangers have proven themselves in recent Octobers and are at home b) Price seems slightly overvalued currently c) Martin Perez had a very good 2nd half. The Rays, however, took the game. I have since made a parlay with the two NL faves. The Cards and Dodgers both entered this round at just about -150 so I threw them together for something resembling a potentially decent payout. The match-up I really like is Oakland +145ish. I feel that while Detroit’s pitching ceiling is higher, as a whole the depth of consistency for Oakland is very positive. Much of Detroit’s offensive success this year rested on a now banged-up Cabrera and an entirely too successful Hunter. No touchy on the Sox/Rays.
Football Stuff
Going over currently open bets, as well as submitting my picks for Over/Under Season Totals. Speaking of which, the Indiana play took a hit last night with a home loss to Navy. Indiana looks to be able to score points with relative ease but they had genuine problems on the defensive side. Hopefully this was more of a case of facing a weird offense (triple option). We shall see. Aside from that, bets I am the house for…
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 (-229) 150 Units
Oakland Raiders League Worst Record (+225) 30 Units
And bets on my end…
Cincy to win AFC (+1200) 15 Units
I really didn’t think Andy Dalton was going to be good in the pros, but he has progressed to the point for me that I actually forget it’s Andy Dalton who is out there.
5 Point Pick – Browns Over 6
Hear me out. Pitt and Balt seem to be both getting worse these days. Cleveland has a favorable stretch of 3 home games early on where they play Cincy, Buffalo on a very short week, and then have a week and a half before Detroit comes in. Trent hitting his prime.
4 Point Pick – Panthers Under 7
You know how Harbaugh is all about trying to prevent Kapernick from getting hurt? Do you know who you don’t hear being a part of that conversation? Ron Rivera, who is coming across as the equivalent of an absentee father with Newton. If Newton gets injured at any point early, a plausible scenario given the distressing fact that he was Carolina’s leading rusher last year, this Under is a lock. Steve Smith aint getting any younger, their running backs aint getting any healthier.
Side Note, I love how confident I sound when making picks.
3 Point Pick – Packers Under 10.5
In Simmons’ season preview he rightly points out how difficult the Packer away schedule is.
2 Point Pick – Falcons Over 10
I see this as Atlanta signing up for making a run this year. There is no way Gonzalez plays a down in the league after this year. Steve Jax is never going to be as productive moving forward as he will be this year. Good chance the same can be said for Roddy. I do not think they will feel the ripple effect of trading away a chunk of their future for Julio at this point. Once more into the fray while you all still have legs.
1 Point Pick – Patriots Under 11
They have an easy schedule, they play in the easiest division of the easier conference. All they do is win double digit games of every year. But my God did they look awful in the preseason. I put next to no faith, stock, belief in preseason football, except when I want to.
Pro-Am Football
The easiest money you will win this year on anything is going to be betting the Over on Indiana college football total wins. I asked Lou how much I was possibly allowed to bet on one thing and he said, “don’t you owe me money?” Well played. Indiana is going to smush their Over, please remember you heard this here first on Aug 26th, year of Our Lord 2013. The Vegas number is 5.5, the real number should be 6.25, the actual number will be at least 7. This is a thing that will happen.
The Bet
Indiana Over 5.5
UPDATE
There will definitely be more of these to follow but IU is my big play. The juice on the bet is absurd (-155). Vegas realizes they are going to win at least 6. I would honestly rather have 6 at even money. Lame, se la vi.
UPDATE II
The Indiana action wound up being the only thing I genuinely liked. I would love to bet the Oklahoma under, not really as an indication of the team’s potential weaknesses as a recognition of how difficult their schedule is, but @ 8.5 Vegas is as always a step ahead. As with baseball this year, I will make up for this lack of early action with oodles of regular season plays, starting in earnest Week 2.
