Author: pat
NFL Plays
All of these bets are @ 17
Browns +10 -113
Bills +2.5 +113
Eagles -2.5 -107
Chiefs/Skins Under 44 -108
Pats/Browns Under 47.5 -106
Raiders/Jets Over 39.5 -102
Colts/Bengals Under 43 -110
AND Note for me and Lou – Raiders Under @ 125
***UPDATE***
Tenn +13 -110
Cards -4 -110
Giants +4 -106
Giants/Chargers O/U 47 -103
Premier League Week 15
Man U v. Newcastle Under 2.5 and 3 +101 @ 16
I am just not sure where the goals are going to come from. RVP sounds doubtful, Rooney is suspended, Moyes seems naturally conservative, in my mind the best striker on the field will likely be playing for the away team, apparently the best Man U setup player of the moment has a virus…the bad part is that both of these defenses have allowed a decent number of goals this year. See what happens.
***UPDATE***
Good for us on the 1st pick. The next involves Fulham finally starting to get on track. They have a new manager and look to be in sharper form since he’s been around, albeit for a very brief span of time. This bet is being made in recognition of just how hard it seems to be to win away games in the Premier League, even against struggling teams. I am taking Fulham not on the 1X2 soccer style betting that includes draws but on the pk line where a draw is a push. The 1X2 payout is much better, but after all, this is still Fulham we’re talking about. We may need some help.
Fulham pk -114 @ 15
NFL
Nothing clever here. Love faves this week. Am making an 80 bet to win 72 on all fave lines minus G-Men. In addition, all bets here @ 20
Miami @ Jets -1 -110
Chicago @ Vikings -1 105
Parlay MLs Panthers -305 Pats -285 Browns -315
Cards @ Eagles -3.5 +100
Dolphins/Jets Over 39.5 -110
Parlay MLs Colts -180 Bills -25
NCAA
Quick note, definitely like Auburn at +11. Going to keep an eye open.
Drunken Promises
Both Sean and I were winners last week, boldly picking the Raiders on the road. Fortune favored this brave pick, and we were rewarded with a cover. While watching the game, we patted each other on the back, saying “I mean, who thinks the Texans are 10 points better than anyone?” “I know right, you have to bet against them at that line against anyone, I’d do it if they were playing Jacksonville for Chrissake!” “No brainer,” said I, swigging from a 40. “Let’s do a shot.” Fast forward to this week, where lo and be-motherfuckin-hold who should the Texans be playing? Fantastic. As if betting Oakland wasn’t proof enough of mental instability, we now get to bet on the Jaguars. Where’s that 40 at? All of these plays are @ 19.
Jacksonville +10.5 -109 @ Houston
Jets @ Ravens Under 38.5 -113
Bears @ Rams Over 46.5 -102
Meanwhile the lines are going a bit bizzerk. I was all prepared to bet Tampa and the Chargers who have both dropped like 2 points in the last couple hours…
Cowboys @ Giants -2.5 -115
Steelers @ Browns ML -134
Colts @ Cards -3 -116
Broncos @ Patriots ML +111
7 Pt Teaser making the lines Tampa +14.5 Chargers +10.5 Jets +11.5
NCAAF Plays
Actually have some NCAAF plays this week which I somewhat like. Very tricky, weird season. FSU has not only not fallen apart, it seems that they are getting stronger. If Kansas was playing at home this week, they would be a favorite. LSU, Florida, Oklahoma, Georgia are all way down. Duke and Baylor have a good chance at playing for a conference championship. Not too, too shocking that some former heavyweights (ie Purdue, Illinois) haven’t won a conference game, somewhat mind-blowing that Northwestern, Cal, UVA and Arkansas haven’t either, though. Very hard season, for me at any rate, to get a feel for. Here is what I like today, all plays @ 16.
Nebraska +1 -107 @ Penn St
Penn St is just not that good. Giving up 21 to a horrific Purdue team, only scoring 24 on IU, needing OT to beat Illinois. As so often happens in gambling, this bet is being made more against one team than because of the other.
Kentucky +26 -111 @ Georgia
I am guessing this line is so high because it is not only a night game, but Aaron Murray’s last home game. Well F that. Kentucky is bad, but 26 points is about 3.5 too many for me. Georgia 42 Kentucky 24.
Oregon @ Arizona +18.5 -106
While I am reading articles and reports during the week I will often create a side note on my desktop entitled something like “Bets I Like.” This week, in its entirety…”Against Oregon.” Do I remember what I read, no I do not.
Indiana +34.5 -106 @ Ohio St
One time, Hoosiers.
All for now, likely more to come.
Premier Week 12
Lots of interesting games this week. Fulham is just so tempting to bet against every damn week at this point, I just don’t know if it is possible for them to stay as bad as they have been, though. And Swansea has no Michu…I might still bet this anyway. Let’s type for a while and hope I forget about it. Where I will be putting money on things is a West Ham/Chelsea draw +294. Winston Reid still out, but we’ll roll with this anyway. It is going to be a twilight/evening affair so the fans will have plenty of time to get Hammered. I like Stoke City/Sunderland under 2 and 2.5 -121 because I see both teams more interested in trying to guarantee a point via a clean sheet than in blowing away their opponent. And I will go with Newcastle ML -124 as an indictment more against Norwich than belief that Newcastle have now found their form. All plays are @ 15. I would be surprised if there was not a further update for the games tomorrow and Monday. And look, I managed to forget about Fulham. There’s still an hour left before kickoff…
***UPDATE****
Want to bet Man City/Tott but the odds just aren’t lining up for me.
Am taking West Brom ML +116 @ 16
NFL Plays
For the record, these were my Week 11 picks. As we shall I am developing a hard-on for 2nd half bets. For anyone who has not experienced this you should do yourself a favor and sit in a Vegas casino as these lines are posted. You will never see crazy line fluctuations in your life like these. A line will start as a pick ’em and move to someone being a 3 point favorite in a minute…
Ravens +3 +113 @ 14
Raiders +10 +100 @ 14
Browns/Bengals Under 40 -110 @ 16
Ravens/Bears Under 40.5 -105 @ 14
Redskins +5 -108 @ 14
Redskins ML +120 @ 14
Browns -.5 -110 @ 15
Steelers ML +121 @ 14
4:00
San Diego @ Miami Over 44.5 -110 @ 17
Packers @ NY Giants ML -177 @ 66
Late Game
First score of game Non-TD +153 @ 22 (Obv)
MNF
Panthers -3 -110 @ 22
If you have been playing my action you are up somewhere like +125 Units for the month. Just saying. And yes, thats a bullshit thing to say when posting picks 2 days late
NCAA Plays
As always, I will likely to be adding to these throughout the day. Our Indiana over pick is in dire straits. They are going to beat Illinois to finish the season, which gives them 5, but to hit 6 they are going to have to beat either Wisconsin (slim) or Ohio St (none). I know there is nothing they like better at a school like Wisconsin then to cover the spread, I know IU is missing their best running back, I know the defense couldn’t tackle a 2nd grade math assignment. Let’s call this going down with the ship.
Indiana +27 -112 @ 19
In other plays, Florida St, at some point this season has to not cover a spread. They have been demolishing it consistently. You could almost see the point in the Miami game where they hit it and everyone on the Seminole sideline who knows whats up leaned back and smiled.
Syracuse +37.5 -109 @ 17
What is more embarrassing, letting someone borrow your computer and seeing a horrific stream of porn search queries or a series of search queries headed by “akron umass preview?” As I said, likely more picks to follow.
NCAA Marathon Live Blog
Over the next day or so the NCAA is doing their 24 hour marathon tip-off deal. I am going to live blog this as much as possible. Am I going to fall asleep at points? 1,000%. Will I be drinking casually throughout, you betcha.
21:15 EST
I am currently watching MNF while sipping on a St Ides. The glamor. I was speculating on what job Schiano will have this time next year. The easy answer is as an assistant somewhere in the NFL but I would not be shocked if he wound up coaching high school football for a bit.
21:45 EST
First bet is going to be Long Beach St +20.5 -106 @ 13. They are on the road to #6 Arizona.
22:00 EST
Internet anthropologists observing this live blog decades from now should not expect the continuous fast and furious pace these entries are currently being made in. I have a billion channels but apparently none of them are broadcasting the Arizona game. If things are competitive I’ll find it on the internet. In searching for the game, I realize that there is a station broadcasting girls’ Ohio high school volleyball. It’s listed as one of the Fox Sports channels, but I will refer to it as the Pedo Network until it proves me wrong. I hear a noise of someone walking around upstairs and I quickly flip the channel.
22:50 EST
Miami coming back in MNF, see how that goes. Watching Colo St vs Gonzaga. Larry Eustachy has reemerged. Get that man a beer. Miami takes the lead, see what happens in the 4th.
BYU ML +172 @ 11.
23:30 EST
This game is going back and forth. I have no idea which way it is going to go. Which team is going to win the Ohio high school volleyb…I mean. BYU is doing well against Stanford, up by 4 about a quarter through. The over/under for the game was pretty high for a college game (155) and it is deserved, these teams can shoot. You know you are in a sad state of ignorance when you are reading the comment section on espn to try to get scouting reports. These were 2 different comments I read…
“BYU have couple of big men that will make the night hell for Stanford offense”
“How is interior play? That is likely BYU’s weakness this year, especially on the defensive end”
Okay. Then there was this from someone who was listing reasons to bet against BYU…
“Can’t drink coffee and no Sex.”
There is definitely some irony gambling on and drinking to BYU. Looks like Tampa is going to seal things up.
0:23 EST
Lou hopping in here because I can’t be awake and not participate in these shenanigans. Is this a conference game? I no longer have the desire or wherewithal to keep track. If this is a conference game, BYU will be much better than most of the dreck that passed for Pac-12 basketball the past few seasons. It’s like Big East tackle football if that still exists. No idea if this will be an ‘up’ year for the Pac-12 or not.
0:35 EST
I’m reading a lot early this morning about all of these rule changes in college hoops this season designed to increase scoring. Why not just decrease the shot clock from 35 to 30?
0:37 EST
Just took a flyer on Kentucky to win the national championship at +375. Pinnacle had them at +300 so I can’t be that far off.
0:40 EST
0% chance Stanford wins this game currently down by 20. Their defense has been as poor as Stanford’s women’s offense was against UConn earlier tonight.
1:00 EST
Going to go hopefully 2-1 on the night. BYU should hold on. Wichita St is next, do not know how many would remember this but this team made it to the Final Four last year. That is reason enough to gamble against them.
W Kentucky +15.5 -106 @ 15
1:30 EST
Akron +9.5 -115 @ 14
To get back to Lou earlier, college sports essentially follow the pattern of non-conference early, and then hitting the conference sched up about quarter of the way through their season. W Kentucky hanging in…
2:45 EST
W Kentucky is crumbling before me. They are relying heavily on jump shots and they are simply not hitting them. But still about 10 minutes left. As I type W Kentucky has back-to-back 3 point possessions…
New Mexico St @ Hawaii -3.5 -112 @ 16
7:40 EST
Our picks are struggling at the moment. La Salle usually has a good basketball program, we are going to take Quinnipiac simply for the sake of action.
Quinnipiac +12 -102 @ 15
8:30 EST
The public action on La Salle is to be expected, massive, which makes me like our Quinn play all the more. I am going to add a bet on here.
Quinn/La Salle Under 156 -108 @ 14. FGC is starting to pull away from Hartford, this is the only game I didn’t bet on and if I had I would have gone for Hartford. The line ended somewhere around 7.5, we will see how things shake down.
8:45 EST
I had a dream the other night regarding fantasy football. It was a completely different set-up then anything I have ever seen. You have 10 player slots and 6 bench spots. When you draft or pick up a player you have the option of having him take 1, 2, 3 or 4 spots in your lineup, but you have to declare it. The spots the player takes up can be a mixture of starting lineup and bench. For example, you can have Calvin Johnson for let’s say 4 player slots, of which you can have those stats in the starting lineup, on the bench, or a combo. In such a league there are no positions really, just players. I can’t decide if this would be an ungodly clusterfuck or if the idea has merit. Probably clusterfuck, but I kind of like it.
9:45 EST
Where BYU and to a lesser extent Stanford had aesthetic beauty in their game to hit an over, these teams follow the quantity over quality method. The number of shots taken within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock is way out there. Currently we are on pace to cover both bets, but if these d-bags keep chucking who the hell knows. I think I have to bet UMass later but the public money has to be all over them.
10:45 EST
Should cover both bets in the Quinn/La Salle game. Basketball left to play, though. All the action is on UMass, I will join the herd.
UMass -5 -106 @ 12
LSU/UMass Under 157.5 -106 @ 13
Speaking of LSU, we are coming of age to college athletes named Shaq. Deadspin did shit about this roughly a month ago, I am just too lazy to reference it, but there is a crazy number of Shaqi emerging onto the scene.
11:48 EST
Public numbers are here: http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-basketball-public-betting-chart though I’m not sure how much good they are this early in the season. I also don’t know how much public numbers matter in basketball in general. I don’t have public numbers in my totals engine for baseball for example, but it’s the first thing I look at in everything else. NFL public numbers aren’t correlated until week 3.
11:51 EST
Mediocre basketball! UMass is up 5. Again I have no useful knowledge, but with all of these ticky-tack fouls being called, it should bump scoring up because of the free throws. I’m sure this is reflected in the totals. Good shooting teams, like BYU, may need to get an extra point or two on their spreads because of the additional free throws per game this season versus last.
11:54 EST
That was Lou talking, not Pat. Not that anyone else is reading. Hi Ed!
11:55 EST
UMass has fully 40% of their points from the foul line. This is awful to watch. I’m going back to do some work now.
13:05 EST
Lou is right, this game is ugly. And by ugly I mean they have smooshed the over. If this game was 12-9 at this point I’d be calling it a masterpiece. Anyway. UMass is up by 6 with 2 minutes to go.
WV -3 -110 @ 12
14:30 EST
The S Carolina/Baylor game is the only game on for the next few hours, which means I shall be napping. Va Tech is on about a 66-3 run right now so we’ll see how that goes.
S Carolina +13.5 -110 @ 20
17:00 EST
S Carolina is hanging tough against Baylor. NC State/Cincy is next and then there is about a trillion games on this evening. Down money? Gamble on a team that you don’t even know their mascot. That solves everything.
Cincinnati -7 -104 @ 14
18:00 EST
LIU +23.5 -107 @ 12
LIU/Indiana Under 172.5 -117 @ 18
172/173 is just about as high as over/unders get in college basketball. If you get a span of 3 minutes with only a bucket you are looking pretty good. I love me a good under. Cincy/NC St tied at the half.
19:00 EST
The power of Christ compels me to bet the marque games this evening.
Mich St -4 -106 @ 12
I will definitely make a poor decision in the Duke game later. (Hint: Duke) Cincy is pushing at this moment, LIU and the under are covering, life is lovely. Also…
College of Charleston -6.5 -102 @ 13
