Author: lou
2009 NFL Week 2 Picks
First, apologies for not getting Eric Foster’s UFC 103 picks linked up. 3 for 3 and more than making up for last month’s disappointing card.
Quickly with the NFL picks. All 2 units unless noted.
Cleveland/Denver Over 37 4u
Big bet of the week as mentioned earlier. This is 38 or 38.5 everywhere I’ve looked this morning.
New Orleans Minny @ Detroit +10
New York Giants +3 @ Dallas
Managed to get this at -112 as opposed to the -120/125 that’s commonly available.
Pittsburgh @ Chicago +3
Happy to take the home underdog here.
Carolina +6.5 @ Atlanta 1u
Simmons talked me into it.
Good luck out there today.
Thursday/Friday Links
Even my soccer lock of the week whiffed…Onto the links because at least they don’t cause me to set money on fire. I should just roll something smokable with a $20 and get it over with.
Bengals LT and Hard Knocks Man-Boob [NSFW] star Andre Smith apparently should have hired a better agent.
That shot by Federer explained.
Jake Long did not have a good day Sunday.
The Pats cheerleaders did.
Spend the five minutes to watch this. “If we’re all at peace with ourselves as much as he is, that’s pretty good.”
Best story of the week: Kid Cannabis
The only thing the drug kingpin formerly known as the Keebler Elf needed was a girlfriend. He found her, of course, at a strip club.
Per usual, the week two injury report from profootballtalk.com
Lastly, in case you thought crazy owners/fans were limited to Oakland, the Atlético Madrid owner’s call for ‘peace and tolerance’ has backfired spectacularly as fans revolt.
CONCACAF Champions League Wednesday
If this post title doesn’t have you fired up I don’t know what to say. For those of you wondering what exactly the CONCACAF Champions League is, I’m happy to tell you it’s the North American version of the Champions League in Europe that’s contested by teams you’ve heard of, such as Milan, Barcelona and Liverpool. Unfortunately, anyone reading this won’t be able to name any teams in this competition, but I’m happy to help out with a tip for one of tonight’s games.
MLS team Columbus Crew are in Costa Rica tonight to face Costa Rican champions Deportivo Saprissa. Don’t let the fact that the entire country of Costa Rica could fit inside Lake Michigan lead you to believe that Columbus is favored tonight. They aren’t. In fact, Columbus is missing their entire back line and only dressing 16 players for the game tonight.
We are only bringing 16 of 23 players down, so I don’t know if it will be worth watching for a neutral. Chicago on Sunday is a big match, and we [Columbus] could almost put them to sleep in terms of the #1 seed out east with an away win.
Here’s who is out for us:
1. D Eric Brunner (starting CB) is suspended.
2. D Chad Marshall (starting CB) got hurt in practice Monday (knee sprain), could miss Chicago game or possibly more depending on severity.
3. D Gino Padula (starting LB) was ill Sunday but played through it. He won’t make the trip.
4. D Frankie Hejduk (starting RB) will be rested.
5. F Alejandro Moreno (starting F) will be rested (played midweek and Sunday).
6. F Emelio Renteria (visa issues) won’t make the trip.
7. GK Andy Gruenebaum (hip) won’t make the trip.So, 5 starters out, including the entire backline. Ouch.
Include the fact that Columbus is away from home and playing on what’s described as 1980s astroturf, and it’s almost assured that Columbus will be “playing for the draw” which in soccer terms means they’ll be trying not to get their ass kicked.
A hard place to go? Estadio Saprissa, near the Costa Rican capital of San Jose, is a soccer apocalypse, said Crew captain Frankie Hejduk, who did not make the trip in order to rest.
“It’s a little bit like Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome,” said Hejduk, recalling the bottle-chucking hostility he has faced on previous visits with the U.S. national team.
Costa Rica has beaten the United States six consecutive times in “the Monster’s Cave,” a venue former U.S. coach Bruce Arena referred to as “borderline dangerous.”
“I don’t think (tonight) will be quite what it’s like when the U.S. plays there, but it is one of the most hostile environments I’ve ever been in,” Hejduk said.
Unconfirmed reports also have Saprissa resting players in their domestic league in preparation for tonight’s game. -200 on Bookmaker. Max play on the Costa Ricans.
2009 NFL Week 2 – Early Plays
Still cleaning up after myself thanks to an ugly week 1. -10u. I would take all four of those bets again, though admittedly the Lions bet was probably too ambitious.
Early plays this week:
Cleveland/Denver Over 37 4u
Sticking with my preseason assessment that both of these defenses are below average at best. Line may be up to 37.5 across the board by now.
Minnesota @ Detroit +10 2u
I’m going to continue betting on Detroit and against Minnesota for the foreseeable future. At least this week I only need to bet one game.
Early leans:
WTF is going on with the Pats/Jets line? It opened in some places as high as +6.5 NYJ and has been bet down as low as 3. This has to be an overreaction by NY money based on week 1 games. Clearly, the Pats are the better team here, right?
Pittsburgh @ Chicago +3
If Cutler plays well last week, this is Chicago +1
NYG +3 @ Dallas
Giants getting 3 points vs. Dallas? Yes, please.
Indy @ Miami +3
I like Miami but can’t yet articulate why.
All three of you comment away.
NFL Week 1 Picks
Just three games for me in week 1
Minnesota @ Cleveland +4
This game represents everything that is good about NFL gambling.
First, we have a home underdog. Read everything here about why these are good to bet on.
Second, the public is all over the Vikings by as much as a 4:1 ratio, yet the line, which started at 3, hasn’t moved past 3.5 at some books. Probably because of this new QB playing for Minnesota
Third, even though Browns coach Eric Mangini fails at communicating, the man can game plan with anyone in the league and he’ll have his team ready on week 1.
Detroit +13.5 @ New Orleans
Two unit play here. Taking a non-public team and 13.5 is too many points for any NFL game in week 1.
Washington @ New York Giants -6.5
Feeler play here. I have nothing rational that would justify action on a game with a proper line.
EDIT: Adding a teaser for 4u Carolina +8.5 and Seattle -1.5
2009 NFL Over Under Season Win Totals
Atlanta Falcons Under 8.5 EVEN
Atlanta and Miami were the biggest surprises in the NFL last season and both teams will look to continue their winning ways this season. While Miami’s been given a much more achievable target of 7 or 7.5 wins, Atlanta is higher at 8.5 across the board. That’s strictly a reflection of the very good play from Matt Ryan and the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez. I have few doubts regarding this team’s ability to score points. Their problems are entirely on the defensive side.
Atlanta’s defense benefited from an easy schedule, the offense often jumping out to an early lead and the outstanding play of John Abraham at DE last season. Otherwise, they failed to cover and tackle well and the defense is still a work in progress, most notably at corner where the Falcons just traded for Rams castoff and former 1st round pick Tye Hill to play nickel.
If Abraham plays in all 16 games and gets some help from anyone else on the D-Line, and the offense performs as expected, 9-11 wins is possible. More likely, Abraham fails to play in 16 games and/or isn’t quite as effective, the offense is forced to play from behind more often, and this team reverts back to .500 or worse. The Falcons face the AFC East and NFC West on their out of conference schedule, starting this week at home to Miami.
Minnesota Vikings Under 10 EVEN
This bet was made against the local resident Vikings fan, but I’d still take the action at 9.5, though obviously much happier getting a push at 10. The Vikings are essentially the exact same team as last year, but their division rivals have all visibly improved. Where did Minnesota get better? I don’t see how a 39 year old QB who’s had all of 3 weeks of practice time with his receivers is a better option than Sage ‘Helicopter‘ Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson, who was excellent the last 4 games of last season.
Brad Childress is definitely the worst coach in the division, and one of the worst in the league. 6 unit play here.
Buffalo Bills u7 +110
My bet of the year. The line posted is from Bookmaker and better than u8 -200 or worse and marginally better than u7.5 -150 at The Greek. Buffalo not only plays two well coached and more talented teams twice (NE and MIA), they also face the AFC & NFC South on their out of conference schedule. The more I look at this team, the more I wonder if they’ll even win 5 or 6, much less 7 or 8. Their offense is a mess (click the Bills links) and their defense, while competent lacks depth leaving only their special teams as a strength. Dick Jauron has to be the favorite to be first coach fired this season.
From Lombardi:
Again, this proves the point that most problems within organizations lie in their inability to self-evaluate. The Bills had no passing game last year, and although they had some talented players, their production never matched the talent. Keeping the status quo has made this season very challenging, and the hope for success is just that — hope. I would love to know who made the design for the Bills of 2009.
Now they go to New England with three-fifths of their offensive line gone from last year. All the money paid to Walker and Derrick Dockery in free agency two years ago has been wasted. The design of this team has been bad, and at some point the Bills have to get someone in their building who can build a team that can compete with the Dolphins, the Patriots and even the Jets on and (most critically) off the field. The Bills are going nowhere until they admit their planning and design has been flawed. They need one person in the building, a coach or personnel man, who can make the right choices and design the right plan because the level of competition in the AFC East is and will remain very fierce and intellectually challenging.
Dallas Cowboys u9.5 -125
Oakland Raiders u5.5 +110
Small plays here, see Sean‘s writeup.
Detroit Lions Over 4.5 -130
This is an “I believe in Jim Schwarz” bet as Detroit has kept only 22 players from last year’s 0-16 team. They should be OK on offense and they play the AFC North and NFC West which, combined with a professional coaching staff (See Atlanta 2007 vs. 2008) should be plenty to get them to 5 wins.
Summary:
Atlanta u8.5 4 units
Minnesota u10 6 units
Buffalo u7 10 units
Dallas u9.5 2 units
Oakland u5.5 2 units
Detroit o4.5 3 units
Thursday Links
Still on tilt from soccer yesterday thanks to Finland failing and Chile conspiring to lose after tying the game and being up an extra man. -7.32 units yesterday, -3.32 since this site started.
My favorite sentence from the writeups:
It was the product of a collective lack of focus at a moment when too many Finnish players apparently thought the match was won.
In classical terms, hubris was followed smartly by nemesis.
Live & learn. My real job is my latest excuse for the lack of over/unders being posted. No play for me on either PIT or TEN this year. Onto the links:
Maybe some state other than Delaware will try and legalize sports betting now?
I take back what I said about the Bills & Jauron being slightly competent. They are definitely not.
Why Eric Mangini is limited as a head coach.
Simmons on the still unsigned Michael Crabtree (sidebar, near the end). Best analogy ever.
Week 1 injury report here.
World Cup Wednesday
Lots of picks for tomorrow’s qualifiers:
Chile +600 @ Brazil
Brazil are at home following Saturday’s comprehensive 3-1 win in Argentina. That win also locked up their World Cup place, making their last three games essentially meaningless. Brazil will be missing most of their attacking players who featured on Saturday with Robinho out with a thigh and Kaka, Ramires, Luis Fabiano are suspended along with defender Lucio. Chile are second in the qualifying group and can book their World Cup place with a win. Brazil certainly doesn’t lack depth, but if there’s ever a time to take 6/1 on Brazil losing, it’s here. +300 on the draw is interesting too. More info here.
USA -167 @ Trinidad
Team USA needs a win here to stay on top of their group with three games to play. Trinidad is terrible and their only home win has come against joint bottom El Salvador. With only 5 points from 7 games, Trinidad are essentially out of the running for a World Cup place. If USA were to lose here, they don’t deserve to qualify. A draw is possible, but the US should win this one handily, by which I mean make this more difficult than it should be. Three points are essential as the US finishes with Honduras away and Costa Rica at home, neither of which is an easy game. Fun fact: Trinidad lost at home to Bermuda last year.
Mexico -265 vs. Honduras
Mexico is fresh off a 3-0 win in Costa Rica (where the US got schooled 3-0 earlier in qualifying) and looked fantastic. This should be a repeat of the US game last month, though with much worse odds. Honduras has been in form as well, but Mexico is a perfect 3-0-0 at home in qualifying while Honduras has only picked up one point in three road games. I’m sure Honduras’s record all time in Mexico is something like this, and everything from that post applies here. Wish the price were better, but this is still a value play.
Finland -300 @ Lichtenstein
Finland have an outside chance of qualifying but would need lots of help. This bet is basically Finland to score, as Lichtenstein have one goal in seven games (incidentally against Finland). Finland is not a particularly good team, but these odds reflect a 75% chance of a win here and that feels much too low against a team so limited.
Russia -200 @ Wales
Full preview which covers just about everything from the Russian side is here. Wales are a mess but will be, “doing their best to deliver.” That doesn’t sound promising.
Austria +585 @ Romania
Austria will have a good chance to qualify with a win in Romania and a France loss or tie. On the road tend they to put 8 players behind the ball and try to counterattack through 6’7″ Stefan Maierhofer. It hasn’t been successful as their road record the last few years has been awful. +285 on the draw is also tempting here and might actually be a better play, as could betting on 0-0 if you can find it. Romania is missing their best player forward Adrian Mutu but coming off a solid 1-1 draw with a disorganized France. Like with Chile, 6:1 odds are hard to pass up as Romania is out of contention.
Ukraine -133 @ Belarus
At 3-4 with two road wins Belarus looks fairly decent, until you see those three wins came against group minnows Kazakhstan and Andorra. Belarus do not offer much going forward as 13 of their 15 goals in qualifying have come against the aforementioned Kazakhs and Andorrans. Ukraine have been mediocre this qualifying and only beat Belarus at home on a 90th minute penalty in their last meeting. That said, they will leapfrog Croatia into second place in the group with a win here and a Croatia loss away to England. Ukraine could screw up here, but we’re betting they don’t.
Bulgaria @ Italy Draw +325
Small play here against the Italians who haven’t played well in nearly a year. Italy are on 17 points and lead their group with Bulgaria, unbeaten but with 5 draws, on 11. Ireland are in second place with 16 but have played a game more than these two. The group winner automatically qualifies and the second place team will earn a playoff spot. A Bulgaria win would completely open up this group, an Italy win would all but secure them first place. 3:1 on a draw feels like a good play as Italy seem to never makes things easy for themselves, and haven’t scored for themselves since playing the US in the Confederations Cup in July June. Italy’s form chart here.
My plays for Wednesday:
Chile 1 unit to win 6
USA 3.34 units to win 2
Mexico 5.3 to win 2
Finland 6 to win 2
Russia 4 to win 2
Ukraine 5.32 to win 4
Italy/Romania 1 to win 3.25
Austria 1 to win 5.85
Austria/Romania under 2.5 goals 1.15 to win 1
Chiefs, Bucs, Bills
Make it three offensive coordinators fired in three days, after Buffalo fired Turk Schonert this morning having failed to score a preseason touchdown.
From Mike Lombardi:
I’m not suggesting that Raheem Morris or Todd Haley should not have replaced their offensive coordinators. What I am suggesting is that they should not have hired either man in the first place. The interview process should have alerted both coaches of potential problems. But since both men have never really been in a position to interview coaches, they ran the risk of making mistakes.
What would worry me most if I were a Bucs fan is that the word going around was that while players and coaches were not happy with Jagodzinski, Morris in fact got along with him — but felt he needed to make the change to make peace with everyone. That doesn’t sound like the work of the leader, but rather the work of a committee.
Dick Jauron doesn’t have that excuse, but seeing how wretched their offense was this preseason, it’s probably the most defensible move of the three. It doesn’t change the fact that their offensive line according to their left tackle, “is still trying to come together.” Whether they can do that before their fragile QB gets injured again is a big question as their skill position guys are pretty solid, and they have one of the best return men in the game.
Over/Unders
Full writeups on all 32 teamsOver/Under Picks coming next week after cut day, but the lines for the fired three:
Buffalo 7.5
Kansas City 6
Tampa 5.5
I think Tampa was actually at 6.5 some time ago, which seems ridiculous now. There may be value in the current 5.5 and I’m almost certain 6 or 6.5 with some juice is still out there. I’m certainly going to try and find where as rebuilding teams with little/young talent and coaching problems are probably teams to bet against winning seven games. KC is currently off the board so we’ll see if their line moves at all. We’ll look at Buffalo some more next week, but firing the guy who tried to run a slow no-huddle offense with a new O-line is probably a good thing.
Edit: Quote by Dick Jauron in the press conference today shows the difference in his thinking compared to Morris:
“I wasn’t thinking about it two weeks ago. And when you start thinking about it, I think you need to move on it and do something. So when I started thinking about it I gave it a good deal of thought and did it. Clearly I believe it’s the right thing to do. It’s painful for him and for his family and for the organization to go through it, but it was just a decision I needed to make I felt, and made it.”
Jauron acknowledged that the preseason struggles factored heavily into his decision.
The productivity parts of it, no doubt,” Jauron said. “I just didn’t feel like we were progressing and I didn’t get the sense that we were going to move forward and that we were going there.”
Thursday Links
Roger Federer being “Artful and Efficient”
In a similar vein to the last post about overconfidence, what causes slumps?
Rarely, even in a slump, does a performer truly lose all the time; it just feels that way. By bringing attention to what the trader (read: athlete) is doing right, the focus shifts from one of performance outcomes to the process of following one’s own best practices. It’s the [equivalent] of seeing the ball when you serve.
As a rule, slumps don’t just end; they have to be broken. Ironically, it’s when performers let go of their need to perform well that they suddenly gain fresh access to the skills that produce elite performance.
The Bears offense is going to be really good. Why didn’t Minnesota trade for that Cutler guy?
Lastly, Brazil @ Argentina in a World Cup qualifier this weekend. Argentina has been struggling and is missing several first choice defenders. Anyone know where to find this one on tv?
