Miracle Covers

NFL Monday

I didn’t make it back here to the site to post, but Pat can confirm I took New England prior to kickoff and was rewarded with a miracle cover victory thanks to the Saints strange ineptitude running a four-minute offense.  The loss was very Cowboy-esque.  3-0 +3.00 for me on the NFL season.

One play tonight and that’s on the Chargers to win outright at evens at home to Indy.

NFL Week 6

2-2 for me for a slight loss on college football yesterday.  I watched zero games again putting me on a total of zero games watched for the season.  3-4 -1.42 on the season.

Nothing doing for me in early NFL plays, though I did see fit to throw out a seven team teaser thanks to some discrepancies between the Bookmaker & Pinnacle lines:

KC -1.5

BAL + 8.5

CLE +8.5

CAR +8.5

HOU -1.5

PIT +7.5

NO +8.5

I’d love to bet on Tennessee today, but the line is down to 12 or worse.  Lots of line moves this week, s hopefully everyone else was able to get on some teams at the price they wanted.  Hopefully I’ll get in a play (New England) on the late games.  I had Washington marked down all week, but it’s in the top 5 of the Hilton contest and so it’s excluded as an option for me.  Hilton top 5 picks are something like 6-18 on the season.

When to Bet your House on an NFL Game

I stayed up to watch a thoroughly enjoyable Chargers game on East Coast Time last night and couldn’t help myself pre-game, dumping a whole lot more units on Oakland +6.  It wasn’t quite a bet the house game, something that happens roughly once a season,  but had I thought about it some more it probably would have qualified.  When I say bet the house, I mean that on occasion, there comes a game or series where it makes sense to bet a disproportional amount on a side.  Usually this becomes extremely obvious in hindsight.  Here is the NFL Criteria:

1) The Public is on the other team

This is Gambling Rule #1 and should be posted at the top of this site.  I’ve had to stop betting soccer because I can no longer find public data for these games anywhere, but it’s readily available for all major American sports.  The Public was 80% on San Diego last night.  and I’d say the cutoff for these games is roughly 75%.

2) The team in question is at home, preferably someplace with a sizable advantage

Betting on home teams is rule #2 of this site.  The statement above normally meant Seattle before they became legitimately good, or midwestern teams in the cold but some dome games count too.  Night games are great, especially when it’s a team that isn’t on TV much because they aren’t very good.  Playoff games count too.  A legitimate night game in Oakland definitely qualifies.

3) The opponent is “Fragile”

I can’t think of a better word here, but we’re talking about the type of teams that tend to self-destruct at critical moments, especially on the road.  Examples: Dallas, San Diego, Jets, Chicago with Sexy Rexy.  Turnover prone QBs paired with mediocre or worse coaches really are the key here.

4) The team in question is getting points

It’s no fun to bet the house, get the game correct and be sweating a miracle cover.  Better to take the points, put some more on the Money Line and enjoy the festivities.

Below is a non-comprehensive list of previous Bet the House games.  I did not in fact bet my house on any of these, nor did I even get significant money down on all of them.  I essentially pushed on the Cardinals game because I had so much on the ML, and the Packers/Chargers affair I had action that was split amongst several people.  Last night I got in a solid couple of plays, but nothing as high as the two Seattle games.  Betting on Seattle was much more fun when they weren’t as good, but at least now we get to go against them on the road.

The point of getting these gathered in one place is to be able to try and identify the pattern listed above a little more clearly the next time it arises.

Chicago Bears 24 (-13) at Arizona Cardinals 23

San Diego Chargers 24 (-5.5) at Green Bay Packers 31

NFL Sunday

I’m just waking up but have plenty of time to get in my one play this week, Chargers @ Oakland +4.5.  A night game for Raiders fans and Philip Rivers on the road and I still get points?  That’s because the Raiders are terrible, but I’ll take them this week anyway.

2-0 in college yesterday so I’m 3-4 on the season there for -1.22.

NFL Season Wins 2013

Back temporarily after a life break because as much as we wish it were the case, gambling comes in a solid 2nd or 3rd on the life priority scale.  I’m traveling again soon so baseball is likely done for me on the season, but we’ll see how it goes now that fantasy drafts are completed.

Quickly for the uninitiated, Pat and I pick five teams with confidence scoring for Over or Under the Season Wins Pinnacle line.  Winner gets a pub crawl and the loser also gets a pub crawl.  It’s a pretty sweet system.  Related, Sean and I both agree that betting on failure is a lot more rewarding.  Forward!

5) Oakland Raiders UNDER 5.5

I’ll see if Pat will take my action on worst team in the NFL which would payout much better than the -229 currently on Oakland here.  I would be shocked if this over hit.

4) San Diego Chargers UNDER 7.5

The most succinct paragraph I could find on the 2013 Chargers

San Diego Chargers. Let’s review: this team finished 22nd in offensive DVOA this year, with the worst adjusted sack rate in the league, and their major offseason fix was adding Danny Woodhead. They drafted D.J. Fluker to help protect the immobile Philip Rivers at right tackle. I think D.J. Fluker is a guard. They installed King Dunlap at left tackle. Nobody thinks King Dunlap is a left tackle. They lost promising hybrid endbacker Melvin Ingram for the season with an ACL tear, and their solution was to call up Dwight Freeney. That would be awesome if it was 2003. It is not 2003. Perpetually injured Derek Cox is their No. 1 cornerback, draft question mark Shareece Wright is ostensibly the No. 2, and offseason waiver claim Johnny Patrick and camp cut Richard Marshall are the depth at the position. The Raiders are a bigger mess, but there’s no chance the Chargers are winning eight games when the only phase of the game they can claim as a strength is stopping the run.

3) Cincinnati Bengals OVER 8.5

Like Sean, I like the Bungles this season.

2) Carolina Panthers OVER 7

Cam Newton > Ron Rivera I hope.

1) New York Jets UNDER 6.5

I don’t like this nearly as much as others do, but given my lack of NFL following this offseason I am lacking any more teams I have a strong opinion about.