Author: lou
Saturday
NCAA
Purdue +15.5 at home to Iowa
Kentucky +14.5 I am waffling on, but if there’s another tackle football game today for me, this will be it.
NHL will have to check in later. There’s nothing right now.
UPDATE: Kentucky started already and I didn’t get a bet in. I really thought it was a night game.
UPDATE #2: This is really ugly. Florida +165 @ Ottawa. Florida is winless in 7 and just got a new coach & Ottawa has been much improved of late.
Nothing Today
No plays in hockey or tackle football and nothing even close. All winners yesterday.
NCAA 6-7 -1.34
NFL 6-3 +2.01
NHL 7-5 +4.56
Several games look promising for tomorrow’s college slate but NFL is not promising. Nothing much out there at last check. Not that a 1-0 week is anything to be ashamed of :)
Thursday
Today in gambling reminds me of our old Sports Trivia days, “Question 9: Sports!”
Hockey has one straightforward play tonight, Vancouver +156 @ San Jose. Senators were a winner on Tuesday.
College tackle football, Stanford +10 -110 at home to Oregon
Lastly, in Professional tackle football, I have Minnesota +1 at home to Washington.
There is NBA tonight as well, but I do not yet know how to wager on it. :(
Good luck out there.
Tuesday
Some bookkeeping and a play in hockey:
NCAA is down to 5-7 -2.34
NFL is 5-3 with yesterday’s injury-aided win +1.01.
NHL, 5-5 +1.85 with Ottawa +115 going tonight.
Also a note from Captain Obvious: It’s easier to be in the plus instead of minus when the games you’re betting have a ‘+’ in front of them.
MLB Summary 2013
Since the playoffs are over, it’s well past time I got this up and posted. 2013 was a good season for me and anyone who followed along, as we finished well on the plus side. I definitely want to continue refining the picks machine for next season, but for a first run I’m very pleased with the results. Totals were a highlight and these results would look even better had away teams been excluded entirely as they were only dropped in June and showed the only substantial loss of any subset. I also took off most of September, hence the low number of plays there.
| W | L | T | $ | |
| April | 9 | 7 | 4.06 | |
| May | 12 | 13 | -0.12 | |
| June | 11 | 10 | 1 | 2.1 |
| July | 19 | 12 | 7.61 | |
| August | 12 | 7 | 5.34 | |
| September | 1 | 2 | -1.04 | |
| 64 | 51 | 1 | 17.95 | |
| W | L | T | $ | |
| Away | 6 | 12 | -4.04 | |
| Home | 39 | 34 | 8.24 | |
| Totals | 19 | 5 | 1 | 13.75 |
| 64 | 51 | 1 | 17.95 |
In fantasy, I managed two cashes, including a 2nd place in high stakes NL where I could have conceivably finished anywhere between 1st and 5th. A late season pickup of LaTroy Hawkins and his 13 saves gave me a much needed boost in saves, but I ultimately ouldn’t overcome drafting both Dan Uggla and BJ Upton.
Lastly, in Pat and I’s MLB Totals, we both did much, much better than usual. I had a chance at a perfect 10 for 10 but finished a few wins short on a couple of teams. Here’s the breakdown:
| Lou | |||
| Miami | Over 63 | 62 | -10 |
| LA Dodgers | Under 91.5 | 92 | -9 |
| Philadelphia | Under 84 | 73 | 8 |
| Kansas City | Over 77.5 | 86 | 7 |
| NY Yankees | Under 88 | 85 | 6 |
| San Diego | Over 74.5 | 76 | 5 |
| White Sox | Under 81 | 63 | 4 |
| Milwaukee | Under 81 | 74 | 3 |
| Cleveland | Over 77.5 | 92 | 2 |
| Arizona | Over 82.5 | 81 | -1 |
| Total | 15 | ||
| Pat | |||
| Detroit | Under 92.5 | 93 | -10 |
| San Diego | Over 74.5 | 76 | 9 |
| Cincinnati | Under 91 | 90 | 8 |
| St. Louis | Over 86 | 97 | 7 |
| Seattle | Over 77.5 | 71 | -6 |
| Chicago Cubs | Over 72.5 | 66 | -5 |
| NY Mets | Under 75 | 74 | 4 |
| Kansas City | Over 77.5 | 86 | 3 |
| Atlanta | Under 87.5 | 96 | -2 |
| LA Angels | Under 91.5 | 78 | 1 |
| Total | 9 |
First, note that with one more Tigers loss, Pat wins here. Second, for anyone who bet the Dodgers over, it was a Miracle Cover as their rise from the ashes was well documented over the season, and they still only covered by one game. I had real life money on Miami Over 63, but finished one win short of a push on that as injuries hurt an already MLB worst offense. The Marlins run differential was similar to the Phillies and White Sox, but with runs being so rare, it’s hard to rack up enough wins. I’d say lesson learned, but I knew the risks going in and still liked the bet. For the other two season bets, Cleveland came up one win short in the Central at +1000, but Oakland cashed as they somewhat easily won the West at +445 with Texas collapsing in September.
We are definitely doing all of this again next season, though plan on slow going for me until May.
Monday
No plays for me on Sunday on what would have likely been a breakeven day judging by my shortlist. The Jaguars have kind of thrown off the lines and stats this year as they are an order of magnitude worse than whatever team (Tampa) is #31, but it’s traditionally very, very difficult for one NFL team to beat another by 14+ points on any consistent basis. Seattle has shown that, squeaking out wins against two bottom 10 teams the last two weeks.
Pat is on the Bears tonight and I am too, Chicago +10 -110 for me. Public is ~30% on Chicago tonight and that’s just good enough for me to wade in with a play. I would pass on the 9.5 that was being shown earlier.
Also Arkansas was a loser on Saturday in my only college play. My Auburn under is officially toast as well with this win, but that was bound to happen after their A&M victory a few weeks back. Still Alive in my other four futures for likely a break even-ish season on those. I’ll update my season record once I finish the spreadsheets for college.
No hockey yesterday or today and only a slight possibility for tomorrow. As mentioned, I tweaked the system to reduce the volume of plays, hopefully that will be a good thing. 5-5 +1.85 there.
Saturday
How am I the one of the three of us betting on college football when most 12 year olds south of Maryland have more knowledge about the sport than I do? Regardless, only one play today and it’s Arkansas, one of my least favorite institutions, +7.5 at home to Auburn.
No hockey today with the more restrictive system I put on. Nashville would be on today otherwise. 1-1 yesterday and that makes me a small winner.
I don’t have anything in NFL at the moment and I’m not sure if I will be around for kickoff tomorrow. Minnesota, Jets, St. Louis, Buffalo, Washington, Philly, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Houston are the options. That’s obviously really broad for a reason as I haven’t looked in depth. Sean’s play on the Bills would be much more appealing if they weren’t on QB3 or QB4. It’s really hard to bet a future house on a third stringer, not that I wouldn’t do it in some circumstances.
Good luck to everyone.
Friday Bets
Back on the hockey wagon today with Columbus +175 @ Pittsburgh. We’ll see if Washington and/or the Islanders make it a two-play day. There’s also a garbage college football game today that I won’t be betting on. Updates later if at all.
UPDATE: Islanders +135 @ Ottawa
Still Here
Just with nothing to gamble on. Going back few days, not only did the Rams cover but they had 1st and goal with four chances to win the game and predictably failed on all four attempts. I got cold feet after my Cardinals, Bills and Bucs forays and couldn’t bring myself to wager on yet another terrible football team with no QB. This is why systems are good for you.
Speaking of systems, I tweaked mine for NHL and it keeps coming back with no plays. This means I can’t lose anything, but it’s also very non-eventful. Buffalo and Nashville are leans and not plays for me tonight.
Lastly, following along with Sean’s NBA picks, I took a couple of futures because I can’t help myself when it comes to a good season bet. I have the Nets to win the Atlantic at -140 and Milwaukee over 28 wins at -123.
I am most likely passing on tonight’s shitty Thursday night NFL game, but the public is 4:1 on the Bungles so it’s Miami or nothing for me. I’ll probably play if the line makes it to 4 (it’s currently 3 -113). Should be some games on Sunday as the public is loading up on some of these away teams.
Monday
Buffalo was an NFL loser yesterday thanks to their inability to stop touchdowns from occurring on 3rd and 20. I wasn’t around to get anything down on a teaser or the Cardinals which would have lost and won respectively. Very tempted to have a go with the Rams tonight at +13 at home to Seattle. This is basically the same as last week’s game with the Cardinals, only St. Louis doesn’t have a quarterback. I can’t bet Seattle, so it’s St. Louis or pass. I probably pass here.
No hockey yesterday. Washington is very close today at Vancouver, but I’ll wait a few hour since it’s a west coast game.
