Author: lou
Wednesday
We were 30 seconds or so from a perfect Tuesday, but Tampa screwed everything up by allowing Ovechkin to score his 4th of the night and tie the game late in the 3rd period. Tampa led 3-0 12 minutes in so it was quite the collapse to lose in the shootout. Regardless, Colorado was a 3-1 winner and Milwaukee not only covered the 7.5 but won outright.
Two plays tonight:
NBA: Utah +7 @ Sacramento
NHL Flyers +165 @ Blackhawks
I probably should wait to see where Utah’s public # ends up but I won’t be around later to update. Also I was just about to play Ohio St. Bryant Under 140 but the line just moved to 139 :(
Tuesday
A winning week closed with Chicago winning easily and the Islanders getting somewhat embarrassed in Anaheim. If you want to know how to describe a shitty team, the Ducks coach gave a great example in his postgame press conference:
“We weren’t ready for them,” Anaheim coach Bruce Boudreau said. “But it seemed like every time they were outplaying us, we got a goal. We hung around just long enough to get our legs, and once we got to 4-2 on the same shift, I think it took the heart out of them a little bit.”
The 4-2 he speaks of game at the end of the 2nd when New York gave up a shorthanded goal on a 3-on-1 break followed by another guy scoring from his knees all within 30 seconds of going to the break tied 2-2. Forward to much better hockey teams with two plays tonight:
Tampa Bay +130 @ Washington and Phoenix +120 @ Colorado.
I’ve also been busy the past few days and am ready to start real-life using an away team NBA system starting tonight with Milwaukee +7.5.
Also since it’s Tuesday it’s time to update my record:
NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 7-8-2 -1.8
NCAA hoops Sides (Real $) 1-0 +1.0
NCAA Hoops Totals are 7-4 +2.65
NCAA Football: 10-11 -1.47
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 16-9 +13.17
NFL: 12-9 +4.22
Monday Night Football
Two losers yesterday and to make things worse, Cleveland covered easily despite the line move taking out my play of the week. I will now be a degenerate gambler and chase yesterday’s losses with a bet on Monday.
Bears to win outright -125
In all seriousness, this play lines up well and I like it only slightly less than Cleveland earlier in the week. Full unit play for me.
Not much doing in hockey again after an empty weekend. Columbus is tempting at +175 but only because over 90% of the betting public is currently on Pittsburgh. If I decide to break the model and go with them, it will be for a half unit play. Islanders are another option in a west coast game if the line moves a bit more.
Good luck out there.
UPDATE: This Islanders game is really marginal and will probably lose but I’m going to gamble it up and play it anyway. Islanders +175
I Am Hungover
Two winners yesterday. Yay. The NFL lines have moved to where I don’t want them and so the one game that was worth betting, Cleveland @ New England is down to 10 or even 9,5 in some places from 11 or 11.5 earlier in the week. The Browns are the team to take here but I am passing unless the line goes back to 10.5. Unlikely and sad.
At 4:00, Tennessee and the Giants are options and Carolina is the side to be on in the late game. Bears tomorrow in MNF I hope.
Nothing in hockey today, Winnipeg didn’t get below the public betting % I use as a filter yesterday but won anyway.
Good luck to everyone reading.
UPDATE: Washington/San Diego St. OVER 146.5. Half unit play
UPDATE 2: Carolina +3 for half a unit
Eclectic Saturday
Yes, I just wanted to use the word eclectic in a post on a gambling board someday and now my dream has come true. Anaheim won the coinflip last night in a completely even game where a draw was a fair result. Marist lost by 10 or 11, failing to cover the 9.5 and are now 0-9 on the season.
Some college hoops this morning. A total I am playing for half a unit is BYU/UMass Over 173.5. And unlike the fake plays I have been posting, I have a real money play on a hoops side and it’s North Carolina -26.5 at home to Greensboro.
Winnipeg is easily the most likely hockey play today as everything else is either excluded or kind of middling. 7:00 start so I will confirm later if it’s a play.
Lastly, I still have nothing in college football. Obviously should have taken Bowling Green yesterday.
Update: Passed on Winnipeg who are currently up 1-0. Our over was a winner
Friday
Light day yesterday and I went 1-0 with San Diego covering, losing by 1 on a last second shot. I debated backing Carolina again in hockey yesterday away to Nashville, but opted against and missed out as they won easily. I do have a hockey play today, and that’s Anaheim +150 @ Chicago. Also a hoops play, Doug’s Marist +9.5.
There should be some NFL action and just as I figured, Washington is showing up on my filters for Sunday. Still not sure what I’ll do there, but a few other games also look OK at the moment. Likely no college football for me this weekend as these neutral site games and indifferent public opinion have me without much to go on. Bowling Green +3 is close for me tonight but I am passing.
Lastly if anyone hasn’t heard, the US got a ghost of World Cups past in their group drawing Germany, Ghana and Portugal, the latter being literally played in the rainforest. Lots of crap teams on the US half of the draw, so there is a decent chance of making the later stages of the tournament for whoever makes it out of this group. Six months until the tournament, so we’ll have plenty of time to get down action this summer.
Thursday
We went 1-2 on college hoops yesterday with BC and Virginia both losing by a lot but having Fordham cover easily. The hockey game we didn’t play was also a winner with Philly beating Detroit 6-3. Nothing doing in a full slate of NHL today unfortunately. One hoops game tonight and it’s San Diego +6. NFL and NCAAF games are both 3 point spreads and neither is worthy of a gamble IMHO. I was close to taking Jacksonville in my picks contest but chickened out at the last moment. I need a Houston win for my Oakland – worst record bet to have any chance of being a push.
One update I neglected to provide Tuesday was a summary for the college football wins totals I placed at the start of the season. They almost to the dollar broke even. Here is the breakdown:
Auburn UNDER 7.5 and Oregon OVER 10.5 were losers due to an excellent and previously underrated head coach and a complete tank job at the end of the season respectively. Alabama OVER 11 was a push. Our two winners were Cincinnati OVER 8.5 and Kansas UNDER 4, both of whom made the cover a bit of a sweat but ultimately did what was expected at the start of the season.
Wednesday
Carolina was an easy 4-1 winner yesterday, taking our streak up to 8 out of 9 the last couple of weeks. Long may this continue, though I am sure there is a downswing coming. Basketball was a loser with the game coming down to the end and Colorado St. losing by 5. No hockey tonight though the Flyers are close, but three hoops games:
Virginia -4
Boston College +4
Fordham -13
The college totals have tightened up quite a bit from closer to the start of the season. I was overreacting to some teams tendencies of playing slower than last season (Ohio St. being the most notable). 6-3 is obviously a good record, but at this rate I will be surprised if there are 9 more plays the whole season.
Update Tuesday
NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 5-5-2 -0.5
NCAA Hoops Totals are 6-3 +2.7
NCAA Football: 10-11 -1.47
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 14-8 +11.27
NFL: 11-8 +3.72
Any plays will get posted below much later.
Plays for Tuesday:
NHL: Carolina +140 @ Washington
NCAAB: Colorado St. +2.5
Monday
Another winning day yesterday as only Washington was a loser. That’s two weeks in a row they have come up as a play and completely stunk. I’m honestly not sure how I will handle them if they come up as a play again in the next week or two. Houston was also an easy cover yesterday and they probably should have won outright. Atlanta required some incompetence by Buffalo but were a good play getting 4 or more points.
I hope someone has been following the hockey plays I have been listing as they’re now 7 for the last 8 and well up on the season.
Nothing in any sports tonight. Updates on lots of things in the morning.
