Author: lou
Monday
It’s currently raining and the temperature is steadily dropping in New York this evening, so get ready for some additional fumbling! Jets are the play tonight if you can find +7, though I am personally passing even if it gets there. As mentioned Tampa was a winner yesterday but somehow conspired to only cover and not win outright.
Nothing doing in hockey tonight thankfully, though Tampa @ Rangers should at least be good to watch. NBA because I’m an idiot:
Minnesota +15 @ Clippers
0-fer
0-for-Saturday here yesterday as I was 0-4 on amateur football and 0-1 on hockey with the Devils losing 3-1. I did find a winner on Calgary right before gametime but was out & about and didn’t get it posted here or on twitter.
NFL today and there’s only one game I actually like and that’s the Tampa getting +6 and +200 hosting the Bungles. I have leans on Washington, Jacksonville and New Orleans but am passing on all three.
There is a chance I’ll have a few NBA games this evening. Good luck today
UPDATE: Tampa covered but somehow did not win. NBA tonight:
Minnesota +13 @ Portland
Toronto -7 @ Lakers
Saturday
2-0 yesterday with Sacramento covering. I have a quiet 5 wins in a row in NBA as does Sean with his Celtic overs that are now 6-0. Buffalo won in hockey and Edmonton lost in overtime because I am running bad. Likely nothing in any sports other than amateur tackle football. I’ll try an update before the evening games but here is what we have so far:
Syracuse +12 @ Boston College
North Texas +5 @ UTSA
Connecticut +21.5 @ Memphis
UPDATE: Syracuse and UNT were both losers. Wake Forest +17 @ Duke
Hockey: New Jersey +155 @ Islanders
Friday
1-0 for me yesterday as Detroit won easily and I passed on both LSU and SF last night. A quick note to Sean and anyone else is that the fading the broadcast teams only tends to work when the line is under a touchdown. Edmonton and Buffalo are showing up on my hockey list today but I am not taking either of those teams while mired in a losing streak. A college football game to start the day: Ball State + 10 @ some MAC team.
UPDATE: Ball St. covered the 10 and won by 17! NBA tonight because I’m an idiot, Sacramento + 12 @ San Antonio
Thursday
Among many many other things, I’m grateful of late for other sports picking up for some terrible hockey plays of late. Detroit -7 to start the day with two options in LSU and San Francisco this evening
Thanksgiving Wednesday
Not the best Tuesday for us as our shitty hockey plays as I termed them on Twitter went 1-2 with our respective teams opening at 1-3, 0-3 and 0-3, with Colorado, the team that won for us, conceding on an impressive 8 shots. Not to be outdone, Edmonton conspired to give up a goal from centre ice in their 3-2 loss. Colorado beat Arinix 4-3 in overtime and because it seems like the Coyotes are constantly leading after two periods before setting the game on fire I pulled the following chart together:
| TEAM | POINTS | 3RD PERIOD GD |
| COLUMBUS | 14 | -18 |
| DALLAS | 22 | -15 |
| BUFFALO | 14 | -15 |
| ARIZONA | 21 | -10 |
| WASHINGTON | 21 | -7 |
| PHILADELPHIA | 19 | -5 |
| SAN JOSE | 24 | -4 |
| NEW JERSEY | 21 | -4 |
| CAROLINA | 15 | -4 |
| WINNIPEG | 25 | -2 |
| MINNESOTA | 24 | -2 |
| EDMONTON | 14 | -2 |
| ST LOUIS | 30 | -1 |
| PITTSBURGH | 30 | -1 |
| FLORIDA | 20 | 0 |
| ANAHEIM | 33 | 1 |
| DETROIT | 27 | 1 |
| BOSTON | 27 | 1 |
| NY ISLANDERS | 30 | 2 |
| NY RANGERS | 22 | 2 |
| TORONTO | 24 | 5 |
| COLORADO | 21 | 5 |
| TAMPA BAY | 30 | 6 |
| LOS ANGELES | 27 | 6 |
| NASHVILLE | 30 | 7 |
| OTTAWA | 24 | 7 |
| VANCOUVER | 31 | 8 |
| MONTREAL | 33 | 9 |
| CHICAGO | 25 | 12 |
| CALGARY | 28 | 18 |
In the ‘no shit’ category of analysis, the teams at the top end of this table are worse than those at the bottom, but this explains a good chunk of the underperformance of Dallas, Columbus and Phoenix and the hot start of the Canadian trio of Calgary, Vancouver and Montreal all of whom seem to be playing slightly below or above their talent levels would suggest. The best teams should be only slightly and not extremely positive as they hopefully have lots of leads they have successfully defended.
NBA because I’m an idiot:
New York +14 @ Dallas
Indiana +13 @ San Antonio
Waiting on the line on the two NHL games I am interested in. Will get an update here pretty quickly
UPDATE: Hopefully we’ll go 1-1. Let it be noted I am betting on Buffalo. No time to wait around for the Philly line to move to 155.
Winnipeg @ Buffalo +140
Philadelphia +150 @ Detroit
Tuesday
Another loser in hockey last night has our losing streak at 3. Still in positive territory for the season along with NFL with NBA the only negative for now. Several hockey options this evening which look ugly so we’ll see how it turns out. I am going to wait a bit closer to gametime on all of them before posting.
Game 1: Edmonton +161 @ Dallas
Game 2: Colorado +110 @ Phoenix It would be fitting if Phoenix wins tonight after we backed them in their past few losses
Game 3: Calgary +155 @ Anaheim I hate this and I’m playing it anyway
MNH?
We should have two competitive but shitty football games tonight as Sean previewed below. I don’t think either are bettable in the slightest, but reasonable minds may differ. 1-0 for a near push for anyone following me yesterday as Minnesota hung around all game to cover but not win against Green Bay.
Instead of watching mediocre football tonight, please consider Penguins @ Bruins or Flyers @ Islanders. I can also recommend a punt of the inferior Senators +135 @ Detroit. Betting on Ottawa is equivalent to betting on the Rams, ultimately profitable but generally depressing to watch.
The rest of the week looks light with Thanksgiving but I should be able to keep up to date here.
Sunday
We had a 3-0 day in college football which helped to offset an 0-2 hockey day. The Carolina loss was particularly terrible as they effectively set the game on fire in the 3rd. NFL this week originally looked like there were going to be a lot of plays, but many of the games have now dropped off with the usual Sunday morning line moves. Detroit and Miami are the two primary sides here so I guess they are leans and not plays at this point.
One confirmed play today and that’s Green Bay @ Minnesota +8. This line is likely 7.5 at this point and peaked as high as 9.5 or 10 earlier in the week. I should have been more vigilant and taken it then but the +8 is good enough and I’m taking the moneyline at +305 as well. Hoping for 3 upsets in a row following the Jets and Rams he past two weeks.
The couple of other games I’ll peek at before 1:00 are Atlanta and Houston, but I’m not expecting anything to come about. Nothing in hockey or any other sport today. Good luck
Saturday
Islanders and Bruins were both winners in a shootout last night. Two plays to add to Stanford so far today:
Maryland +6 @ Michigan
NHL St. Louis @ Ottawa +130
There should be an update around 6
UPDATE: Carolina +130 @ Colorado
Florida Atlantic +7 @ Middle Tennessee St
