Author: lou
Thursday
Today might be our busiest day of the NHL season. We have a total of 5 game on the board at the moment. Not sure if they will all be plays or not. First in tackle football, the Rams line is up to -6 in some places from opening at 3 or 3.5. Just like it’s difficult to win money on double digit favorites, it’s just as difficult to win after multi point line moves. This is bookmakers begging for some Arizona action as the Rams are the “correct” side, but it’s a pass at even 5 much less 6.
NHL so far we are running back both teams from Tuesday:
Calgary @ Buffalo +145
New Jersey +115 @ Philadelphia
One west cost game confirmed:
Minnesota +115 @ San Jose
The last two up in the air are Phoenix and Ottawa. Will update here with any plays
UPDATE: Passed on Ottawa, going with Nashville @ Phoenix +140
Wednesday
Very close to a 2-0 day yesterday as Buffalo won 1-0 effectively aparcar el autobus in an effort that would make many Italian soccer managers proud. Devils lost in a shootout 3-2 behind a goalie making his first NHL start, Keith Kincaid, who mentioned in his post game interview that he doesn’t really like shootouts. He’s on the correct team as the Devils are approximately 1 for their last billion. So 1-1 +0.8 yesterday for us and 22-26 +1.51 for the season. Hopefully upward and onward from here.
Nothing doing tonight but there look to be some options for tomorrow.
Longshot Tuesday
Apologies for the late post, I was waiting on line moves. NBA was a winner last night and the Falcons covered even though Green Bay had the option to take a miracle push there at the end. Two NHL plays tonight:
Chicago @ New Jersey +175
Kings @ Buffalo +180
Monday
We lost our play on Cleveland yesterday as they covered but lost by one. One leans were mixed as is standard and the perfect example of why they aren’t plays. Nothing useful regarding the Falcons game tonight other than the usual note that it’s extremely difficult to make money betting on double digit favorites, no matter how attractive they may seem. Three games in hockey tonight; Penguins were looking possible but aren’t anymore with the latest line movement. If you squint, you can find a play on Florida by continuing to fade St. Louis but I am passing on that as well.
I did get in an early college football play which is very unlike me, Army/Navy UNDER 61. It’s already down to 59.5 so yay to that. One NBA play because I’m an idiot: Phoenix +7.5 @ Clippers. Celtics O/U is 204.5. I would assume all the value in blindly taking the overs has been sucked out at this point but what do I know.
Good luck today
Sunday
Another shit day for gambling as potential games continue to come off the board. It’s better to pass than force any plays, but the degenerate in all of us would like to have more action. Only a single game so far and that’s probably unlikely to change, Indy @ Cleveland +150. Feel free to take the +3 in lieu of the moneyline but I am going with the higher potential return. Jacksonville and the Jets are both out of consideration with line moves this morning, though I would consider Jacksonville if they get over +7. Options with the Chargers and Raiders this afternoon and evening.
Boring Saturday
I can’t find a single game to wager on. NFL tomorrow
Friday
Back on the plus side with a 2-1 +1.86 evening. Columbus somehow won and Calgary somehow lost. Columbus allowed 52 shots while in Buffalo, Tampa goalie Ben Bishop earned a shutout only facing 13. Nothing doing this evening, not even some poor NBA bets.
Thursday
Time to get back in action tonight with a full slate of hockey games, several of them playable. Let’s get right to it:
New Jersey +161 @ Toronto
Columbus +125 @ Florida
Colorado +135 @ Calgary
Unlike last week, I actually like all of these. Vancouver @ Pittsburgh and Boston @ San Jose look like the most entertaining games of the evening. Nashville is not a bad shout if you’re up for playing a bigger favorite and fading Brodeur’s return with St. Louis. Dallas is my pick tonight in NFL with no real conviction whatsoever.
Wednesday
Nothing at all this evening. Washington and New Jersey were losers and Carolina held on to win 2-1. 19-23 -1.1 on the hockey season. Full slate tomorrow
Tuesday
Last night’s MNF game was an exercise where no one won who watched the game, so taking the points and then watching CSI and/or falling asleep was the +EV in life move. NHL gets going in about 20 minutes so I’ll keep this short. One play tonight which is Vancouver @ Washington -115. Two other games which are worthy of your consideration are New Jersey +180 @ Pittsburgh and Carolina +120 hosting Nashville. I’m only at breakeven on this hockey season after the recent downswing and hopefully will get back on the plus side soon
