MLB 2010 Season Win Totals Over/Under
I’ve never done well betting on baseball games. Sure, I’m smart enough to know that when an overmatched scrub shortstop is up against a hard throwing closer, strikeouts and popups will result(or as Chip Caray would say, “Fisted!”). Translating that into an appreciable edge is something I’ll leave to gamblers braver than I. These annual season over/unders represent 80% of my baseball betting in a given year with fantasy baseball taking up the rest.
EDIT: Current lines from Pinnacle are here.
Unfortunately, this isn’t 2008 when Tampa and Seattle provided two of the easiest covers available in the past decade, both clearing by August. It’s not even 2009 where the same Seattle team covered again thanks to their outfield defense, this time on the over. There’s not a whole lot of value out there and as such, these plays are going to be on the small side. Both of mine are in the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 88.5
What keeps teams like St. Louis and Anaheim so damned good every year is not only their great players being great, but the lack of suckiness throughout the rest of the team. A completely average team with 1-2 superstars will win 90+ every season. Throw in a replacement player or two and you’ll only be good for 80+. Tampa won 84 games last season despite having near black holes in CF, RF and DH. It’s VERY hard to win when 1/3 or even 1/7 of your lineup is an automatic out. Those holes weren’t expected, but they were there and it’s very hard to compensate.
As far as this season, Zobrist will likely regress but so long as he’s average and not the Zobrist of 2007 that’s OK. They could use an upgrade at catcher, but so could 15 other teams, and we’re only looking for a 5-win improvement. The pitching staff is solid from top to bottom and players like Andy Sonnanstine and Reid Brignac are valuable trade chits should injuries strike.
Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 71
Crap starting pitching. A commitment to rebuilding. No one outside of Canada who doesn’t play fantasy baseball could name more than three starters for this team who also conveniently play 60+ games versus TB, BOS and NYY. It’s easy to get caught out on under bets when a team is not legitimately rebuilding (Houston) and will happily punt September to give it’s young players playing time. That won’t be a problem here. Toronto’s rotation had problems without Halladay’s near-guarantee of 200+ innings and a sub-3.50 ERA. Replace those starts with more from Romero, Cecil, Richmond and Purcey and it’s not going to be pretty. You want to look for teams whose own players really won’t give a crap when September rolls around. You want the Toronto Blue Jays.
