Month: July 2014
Monday
Yankees were a winner yesterday 3-2. 1-0 since the break :) Two plays tonight, both of which look horrifying:
Cleveland (House) @ Minnesota (Johnson) +104
Tigers (Verlander) @ Arizona (Nuno) +119
Sunday
Having a go with the Yankees today: Reds (Cueto) @ Yankees (Kuroda) -113
Saturday
No plays last night so we are a classy 0-0 since the ASB. There are of leaners in Minnesota and Miami later tonight. One note on a game that’s currently underway, CIN @ NYY. The line moved from -110 or so to -150 between the initial posting last night and first pitch at 1:05 today. Cincinnati’s lineup is definitely in the bottom third of all teams right now, especially with needing a DH for this series, but it’s still a very large and notable jump. There doesn;t seem to be anything untoward happening so far with the Yankees leading 3-1 in the 5th.
Updates later per usual if there are any plays.
Finally
Baseball again. It’s not the Wednesday day off that bothers me, but the Thursday. Couldn’t there be a single-A all star game or something? It’s been a very mediocre first half and a particularly ugly July. Standings right now are 24-23 +2.39. San Diego is a lean and not a play tonight and everything else is a pass. I spent some time over the break tweaking the totals engine but I don’t have access to it from my office so that will need to be rectified at some point.
Return of the Mack
Been out of action for a bit. Let’s get back to business. In the British Open I have Henrik Stenson to win in golf fantasy. That pick is about as bold and inventive as oatmeal but for the purposes of the league I am in its just about mandatory. In thinking outside the box stuff I have a guy named Danny Willett @ 155-1 for 2 bucks. He finished 15th last year at The Open, has oodles of top 20s on the Euro Tour this season, and hes actually from England. Hes at this point a poor mans version of Justin Rose, but you are getting well compensated on odds for the difference.
UFC Tonight
Sunday
Happy World Cup to all of you. Cubs were a loser yesterday in baseball, but we won half of our over even though the 30th goal came in the 90th minute. I am in a gambling mood today and letting Argentina ride without any hedging. One baseball play as well, Angels (Skaggs) @ Rangers (Baker) +135
Saturday
Regarding the 3rd place game, it’s generally difficult to score more than three goals in a professional soccer game with two evenly matched teams. There’s a reason the standard line is 2.5 with the exceptions being 2 and 3 (cup games and minnow qualifiers aside). The World Cup 3rd place game however is unique in the sport of soccer. The World Cup is the only full international tournament that contains a third-place game. No club competitions offer one, with UEFA scrapping theirs in 1984. Teams do play for a bronze medal in the Olympics, but the men’s competition is an under-23 tournament with three overage players allowed.
So what does the third place winner at the World Cup receive? If you guessed third place, you would be correct, because otherwise they receive nothing. Netherlands coach Louis Van Gaal has called the game pointless, but wants to win anyway because he’s a professional coach. It’s questionable how much this relates to the players. Brazil is favored, but like Sean I’m much more interested in the total. There hasn’t been a third place game with under three goals since 1974. Since the game doesn’t count for anything and one or both teams are unhappy to be there, the defending can be somewhat relaxed. In 2002, Turkey scored 11 seconds into the game (i.e. faster than Dempsey’s goal). In 1994, Bulgaria had to travel from New York to California and promptly shipped four goals in the first half.
The Pinnacle line has been steadily dropping, so I will likely be on the over 2.5 and 3 but we’ll wait on the teamsheets to come out first. One final note for Sean and everyone else is to use the “will advance” lines for hedging tomorrow and not the 1X2 as the latter covers only regular time and not overtime + shootouts.
One baseball play Braves (Minor) @ Cubs (Jackson) +109
Brazil/Netherlands Over 2.5 & 3 -107
World Cup This Weekend
Like Lou, I am also hedging a result on Sunday except it is for Argentina to WIN (+140 and +240) as I have them 11/2 to finish second before the tournament. I will also make a small play on the draw at +230.
I will say if I had no horse in this matter, I would love Germany here. They are playing fantastic. This game is a big moment for Messi; he leapfrogs Pele as “greatest footballer ever” with a win here (he’s already the best CLUB player of all time, IMO).
For today’s game, Brazil v Netherlands, I like the over at +3 at +115.
Since 1978, every World Cup Third-place match has had at least 3 goals with an average of 4.22 goals per game.
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) July 11, 2014
Also, for those curious what the NBA futures are now after yesterdays news (how did I not make a small play on the Cavs when season ended in case this happened?)
Current NBA Futures (via 5Dimes)#Cavs +425#Spurs +500#Thunder +650#Rockets +700#Bulls +800#Clippers +1100#Pacers +1900#Heat +4000
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) July 11, 2014
Friday
As mentioned in an update, the Cardinals got smushed as bad Miller and good Volquez were on display. Likely no plays today and I’m probably hedging out of my Argentina bet and onto Germany Sunday. Good luck!
