Month: November 2009
NFL Week 9 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
Early Leans: None
We did start to see a return to form this week as average teams (SF, ATL) should not be getting double digit points away to anyone (IND, NO). Below average teams should not be laying 2 touchdowns plus against anyone (SD). That said, the early lines still look like a mess, but this is coming from someone who’s been setting money on fire for two months straight.
Slightly less early leans:
Tennessee @ San Francisco -4
This line should be closer to -6. Something isn’t right here and it’s likely the fact that LT Joe Staley and CB Nate Clements are both out for six weeks.
Detroit +10 @ Seattle
This is too many points for one awful team against another one.
Stats of the Week
1) Aaron Rodgers leads all QBs in rushing yards with 188 on 29 carries and in QB rating (110.4).
2) The Titans Chris Johnson is now averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
3) The Saints have scored 273 points through 7 games, leading the NFL and on pace to score 624. The 2007 Patriots hold the all time NFL record with 589 (36.8/game).
4) San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis now leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 7. He’s caught all four of Alex Smith’s TD passes this year.
5) The Dolphins won versus the Jets Sunday despite being outgained on offense 378-104.
6) The Oakland Raiders have scored an NFL low 6 touchdowns through 8 games.
6b) The Rams have scored exactly the same number of points through 8 games (77) as they did in their four preseason games.
7) Curtis Lofton now leads the NFL in tackles with 76.
8) The Denver Broncos with their loss to Baltimore failed to cover for the first time this season.
8b) Despite their win last night versus Atlanta, New Orleans failed to cover for the first time this season.
9) Week 9 should theoretically be a good week for the NFL. Oakland, St. Louis, Buffalo and Cleveland are all on bye.
10) Number of players suspended by both the NFL and UFL: 1. Come on down Koren Robinson!
2009 Week 8 NFL Picks
Denver/Baltimore Over 41.5
This is a completely neutral point total (NFL average is 42) despite the fact that neither defense is particularly good.
Houston @ Buffalo +3.5
Home underdog being shunned here against a team with a history of sucking on the road. Probably should take the moneyline here (+175ish) but I’m not that smart.
Miami +3 @ NY Jets
Still like the way Miami matches up here. It’s hard to scheme against power which is what the Dolphins are going to run the whole game.
Bonus 3-team teaser sure to fail:
Seattle @ Dallas +0.5
Carolina @ Arizona EV
Atlanta @ New Orleans -1
Parlaying all 3 moneylines here is essentially the same bet but pays out 10-12% less.
Passing Oakland and San Francisco. On Showtime’s Inside the NFL, there was extensive video of the Raiders loss to the Jets filled with running commentary from CB Nnamdi Asomugha muttering things like “All 11 were wrong on that,” and “Bad day, bad day, bad day.” He’d be one of the most popular players in the league if he played on a winning team. And am I the only person that thinks Alex Smith and Shaun Hill should platoon? Smith is capable of some of the most spectacularly bad interceptions outside of Jake Delhomme and I really don’t see how sitting on the bench for a year changes that. Hill should start and Smith should come in in relief if/when the 49ers trail and they need to complete a pass longer than 10 yards. Or maybe Hill can be converted to relief and become the first closer QB ever in the NFL? The hardest part might be find him some entrance music.
Good luck out there today.
