Month: September 2009
Thursday/Friday Links
Even my soccer lock of the week whiffed…Onto the links because at least they don’t cause me to set money on fire. I should just roll something smokable with a $20 and get it over with.
Bengals LT and Hard Knocks Man-Boob [NSFW] star Andre Smith apparently should have hired a better agent.
That shot by Federer explained.
Jake Long did not have a good day Sunday.
The Pats cheerleaders did.
Spend the five minutes to watch this. “If we’re all at peace with ourselves as much as he is, that’s pretty good.”
Best story of the week: Kid Cannabis
The only thing the drug kingpin formerly known as the Keebler Elf needed was a girlfriend. He found her, of course, at a strip club.
Per usual, the week two injury report from profootballtalk.com
Lastly, in case you thought crazy owners/fans were limited to Oakland, the Atlético Madrid owner’s call for ‘peace and tolerance’ has backfired spectacularly as fans revolt.
CONCACAF Champions League Wednesday
If this post title doesn’t have you fired up I don’t know what to say. For those of you wondering what exactly the CONCACAF Champions League is, I’m happy to tell you it’s the North American version of the Champions League in Europe that’s contested by teams you’ve heard of, such as Milan, Barcelona and Liverpool. Unfortunately, anyone reading this won’t be able to name any teams in this competition, but I’m happy to help out with a tip for one of tonight’s games.
MLS team Columbus Crew are in Costa Rica tonight to face Costa Rican champions Deportivo Saprissa. Don’t let the fact that the entire country of Costa Rica could fit inside Lake Michigan lead you to believe that Columbus is favored tonight. They aren’t. In fact, Columbus is missing their entire back line and only dressing 16 players for the game tonight.
We are only bringing 16 of 23 players down, so I don’t know if it will be worth watching for a neutral. Chicago on Sunday is a big match, and we [Columbus] could almost put them to sleep in terms of the #1 seed out east with an away win.
Here’s who is out for us:
1. D Eric Brunner (starting CB) is suspended.
2. D Chad Marshall (starting CB) got hurt in practice Monday (knee sprain), could miss Chicago game or possibly more depending on severity.
3. D Gino Padula (starting LB) was ill Sunday but played through it. He won’t make the trip.
4. D Frankie Hejduk (starting RB) will be rested.
5. F Alejandro Moreno (starting F) will be rested (played midweek and Sunday).
6. F Emelio Renteria (visa issues) won’t make the trip.
7. GK Andy Gruenebaum (hip) won’t make the trip.So, 5 starters out, including the entire backline. Ouch.
Include the fact that Columbus is away from home and playing on what’s described as 1980s astroturf, and it’s almost assured that Columbus will be “playing for the draw” which in soccer terms means they’ll be trying not to get their ass kicked.
A hard place to go? Estadio Saprissa, near the Costa Rican capital of San Jose, is a soccer apocalypse, said Crew captain Frankie Hejduk, who did not make the trip in order to rest.
“It’s a little bit like Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome,” said Hejduk, recalling the bottle-chucking hostility he has faced on previous visits with the U.S. national team.
Costa Rica has beaten the United States six consecutive times in “the Monster’s Cave,” a venue former U.S. coach Bruce Arena referred to as “borderline dangerous.”
“I don’t think (tonight) will be quite what it’s like when the U.S. plays there, but it is one of the most hostile environments I’ve ever been in,” Hejduk said.
Unconfirmed reports also have Saprissa resting players in their domestic league in preparation for tonight’s game. -200 on Bookmaker. Max play on the Costa Ricans.
2009 NFL Week 2 – Early Plays
Still cleaning up after myself thanks to an ugly week 1. -10u. I would take all four of those bets again, though admittedly the Lions bet was probably too ambitious.
Early plays this week:
Cleveland/Denver Over 37 4u
Sticking with my preseason assessment that both of these defenses are below average at best. Line may be up to 37.5 across the board by now.
Minnesota @ Detroit +10 2u
I’m going to continue betting on Detroit and against Minnesota for the foreseeable future. At least this week I only need to bet one game.
Early leans:
WTF is going on with the Pats/Jets line? It opened in some places as high as +6.5 NYJ and has been bet down as low as 3. This has to be an overreaction by NY money based on week 1 games. Clearly, the Pats are the better team here, right?
Pittsburgh @ Chicago +3
If Cutler plays well last week, this is Chicago +1
NYG +3 @ Dallas
Giants getting 3 points vs. Dallas? Yes, please.
Indy @ Miami +3
I like Miami but can’t yet articulate why.
All three of you comment away.
NFL Plays today
Here are my NFL plays:
Miami/Atlanta Over 44
I just think this will be a shootout and the most exciting game of the day. Someone is going to win 41-38.
Baltimore -13
The real question is whether Baltimore’s offense can cover. KC scoring more than 14 points would be a shock.
SF +6/+215 Money Line @ Arizona
San Francisco is the most boring team in the league…..which I think helps them vs a high scoring offense. They’ll hold the ball and win the turnover and time possession battle and keep things close. I expect the true Arizona to shine through (the one who struggled this preseason, especially on defense) and make enough mistakes to keep this divisional tilt close. You can make a small play at the money line too; this is a winnable game early in the season for Singletary’s crew.
Tease
StL +14 @ Seattle/NO -8 vs Detroit
Seattle is at home, where they play strong, but banged up. They will be missing their best offensive (OL W.Jones) and defensive (CB M.Trufant) players. The Rams now actually have a coach in Steve Spagnolo, and these two always play close games in their short NFC West history.
Detroit still has a bad secondary, but the Saints sometimes keep teams hanging around closer than they should because their defense is average.
NFL Week 1 Picks
Just three games for me in week 1
Minnesota @ Cleveland +4
This game represents everything that is good about NFL gambling.
First, we have a home underdog. Read everything here about why these are good to bet on.
Second, the public is all over the Vikings by as much as a 4:1 ratio, yet the line, which started at 3, hasn’t moved past 3.5 at some books. Probably because of this new QB playing for Minnesota
Third, even though Browns coach Eric Mangini fails at communicating, the man can game plan with anyone in the league and he’ll have his team ready on week 1.
Detroit +13.5 @ New Orleans
Two unit play here. Taking a non-public team and 13.5 is too many points for any NFL game in week 1.
Washington @ New York Giants -6.5
Feeler play here. I have nothing rational that would justify action on a game with a proper line.
EDIT: Adding a teaser for 4u Carolina +8.5 and Seattle -1.5
2009 NFL Over Under Season Win Totals
Atlanta Falcons Under 8.5 EVEN
Atlanta and Miami were the biggest surprises in the NFL last season and both teams will look to continue their winning ways this season. While Miami’s been given a much more achievable target of 7 or 7.5 wins, Atlanta is higher at 8.5 across the board. That’s strictly a reflection of the very good play from Matt Ryan and the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez. I have few doubts regarding this team’s ability to score points. Their problems are entirely on the defensive side.
Atlanta’s defense benefited from an easy schedule, the offense often jumping out to an early lead and the outstanding play of John Abraham at DE last season. Otherwise, they failed to cover and tackle well and the defense is still a work in progress, most notably at corner where the Falcons just traded for Rams castoff and former 1st round pick Tye Hill to play nickel.
If Abraham plays in all 16 games and gets some help from anyone else on the D-Line, and the offense performs as expected, 9-11 wins is possible. More likely, Abraham fails to play in 16 games and/or isn’t quite as effective, the offense is forced to play from behind more often, and this team reverts back to .500 or worse. The Falcons face the AFC East and NFC West on their out of conference schedule, starting this week at home to Miami.
Minnesota Vikings Under 10 EVEN
This bet was made against the local resident Vikings fan, but I’d still take the action at 9.5, though obviously much happier getting a push at 10. The Vikings are essentially the exact same team as last year, but their division rivals have all visibly improved. Where did Minnesota get better? I don’t see how a 39 year old QB who’s had all of 3 weeks of practice time with his receivers is a better option than Sage ‘Helicopter‘ Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson, who was excellent the last 4 games of last season.
Brad Childress is definitely the worst coach in the division, and one of the worst in the league. 6 unit play here.
Buffalo Bills u7 +110
My bet of the year. The line posted is from Bookmaker and better than u8 -200 or worse and marginally better than u7.5 -150 at The Greek. Buffalo not only plays two well coached and more talented teams twice (NE and MIA), they also face the AFC & NFC South on their out of conference schedule. The more I look at this team, the more I wonder if they’ll even win 5 or 6, much less 7 or 8. Their offense is a mess (click the Bills links) and their defense, while competent lacks depth leaving only their special teams as a strength. Dick Jauron has to be the favorite to be first coach fired this season.
From Lombardi:
Again, this proves the point that most problems within organizations lie in their inability to self-evaluate. The Bills had no passing game last year, and although they had some talented players, their production never matched the talent. Keeping the status quo has made this season very challenging, and the hope for success is just that — hope. I would love to know who made the design for the Bills of 2009.
Now they go to New England with three-fifths of their offensive line gone from last year. All the money paid to Walker and Derrick Dockery in free agency two years ago has been wasted. The design of this team has been bad, and at some point the Bills have to get someone in their building who can build a team that can compete with the Dolphins, the Patriots and even the Jets on and (most critically) off the field. The Bills are going nowhere until they admit their planning and design has been flawed. They need one person in the building, a coach or personnel man, who can make the right choices and design the right plan because the level of competition in the AFC East is and will remain very fierce and intellectually challenging.
Dallas Cowboys u9.5 -125
Oakland Raiders u5.5 +110
Small plays here, see Sean‘s writeup.
Detroit Lions Over 4.5 -130
This is an “I believe in Jim Schwarz” bet as Detroit has kept only 22 players from last year’s 0-16 team. They should be OK on offense and they play the AFC North and NFC West which, combined with a professional coaching staff (See Atlanta 2007 vs. 2008) should be plenty to get them to 5 wins.
Summary:
Atlanta u8.5 4 units
Minnesota u10 6 units
Buffalo u7 10 units
Dallas u9.5 2 units
Oakland u5.5 2 units
Detroit o4.5 3 units
Today’s plays
As I myself am on tilt after Chile gives up two goals…….while UP A MAN (WTF!)……..there is an interesting teaser opportunity if you are itching for some action tonight. I am generally not a big fan of teasers, although I am 1-1 so far with last week’s South Carolina (+5.5 @ NC State) and Notre Dame (-10.5, Nevada). I was able to get SC at +1 and ND -6.5 on a 6 point teaser which was not only highly successful, but also opportunistic as I felt the bookies had made slight mistakes with both lines BEFORE I teased it down at the same -110 price.
Pittsburgh is -6.5 tonight at home to the Titans. I felt that was a bit too much, although they will definitely win the game (I think no ring team has yet to lose the Thursday opener) and I really like a close battle in the ACC tonight between Clemson and GA Tech, as both teams know that this is a big game tonight in a very wide open ACC. Clemson also has a new coach in Dabo Sweeney (whose teams covered the last 4 games of the year in ’08), who actually has a pulse and can motivate and coach during games…..unlike the last coach, Tommy Bowden, who was great at recruiting, but not good at game planning (or keeping his daughter’s nude spread eagle pic off of the interweb). Paul Johnson leads and GT squad who can run that football, with arguably the best running back in the country in Jonathan Dwyer; their defense is vulnerable in the secondary, and Clemson usually has some of the best WR recruits in the nation.
So, I took a 6-point tease with Pittsburgh now at +0.5 and Clemson +11.5 @ -110. 15.48 to win 30, why not?
Thursday Links
Still on tilt from soccer yesterday thanks to Finland failing and Chile conspiring to lose after tying the game and being up an extra man. -7.32 units yesterday, -3.32 since this site started.
My favorite sentence from the writeups:
It was the product of a collective lack of focus at a moment when too many Finnish players apparently thought the match was won.
In classical terms, hubris was followed smartly by nemesis.
Live & learn. My real job is my latest excuse for the lack of over/unders being posted. No play for me on either PIT or TEN this year. Onto the links:
Maybe some state other than Delaware will try and legalize sports betting now?
I take back what I said about the Bills & Jauron being slightly competent. They are definitely not.
Why Eric Mangini is limited as a head coach.
Simmons on the still unsigned Michael Crabtree (sidebar, near the end). Best analogy ever.
Week 1 injury report here.
Blogger #3 on board
I have been reading the site and am impressed with the level of insight Sean and Lou bring in justifying their gambling picks. I simply do not have the level of knowledge at this point in teams and players, but I will note some of the bets I have made, undoubtedly commenting on them in future posts.
BET WHERE I AM THE HOUSE
Rams 12-1 win NFC west. I bet 12 bucks on this so I have to pay out 144 to Louis if they win the division.
HEADS UP BETS
Jets win total over 7 (20 bucks with Van Tran), I got this at straight even money, posted at -155 or so most places
Atlanta win total over 8.5 (20 bucks with Louis). This reeks of sucker bet on my part
Colt win total over 9 (15 with Sean), this is posted at 9.5 or even 10 in most places. Just can’t see the Colts going .500
Win total Dolphins vs Giants (20 bucks with VT) This is a bad bet for Van, he’s only making it because they are our respective favorite teams. Still never know.
Bengals win total under 7 (Case of beer with Karna). Again, this is a case of a short foreigner thinking with his heart and not his head. Bengals winning 8 is not impossible, but come on.
Pretty sure I made another bet with Van but I can’t think of it right now.
qt8v3ka4rd
And folks, our first “miracle cover” of the football season
via Jon Troisi on Twitter (found this via google trying to find the Miracle Covers Twitter lol):
“First miracle cover of the year. Meaningless TD run wit 6 seconds left in the Ole Miss/Memphis game.”
Boxscore; line was Ole Miss -28
