Tag: Horse Racing
Belmont Stakes and Saturday plays
Belmont Stakes:
Exacta +2800: Essential Quality 1, Bourbonic 2
Hot Rod Charlie +450
NHL:
Carolina vs Tampa Bay OVER 5.5 +125
UFC:
Santiago Ponzinibbio +115
Kentucky Derby
Still feels weird the Derby in Sept… but hey, better than nothing.
Trifecta:
1) Tiz the Law 3/5
2) Honor A/P 5/1
3) NY Traffic 20/1
To Win:
NY Traffic 20/1
Enforceable 30/1
Last:
Winning Impression
NHL:
NY Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers UNDER 5 (-105)
UFC BONUS:
Alistair Overeem -170
Zelim Imadaev wins by 3 Round Decision +275
Belmont Stakes, UFC 238, MLB
MLB:
Cubs vs Cards OVER 7.5 (EVEN)
Belmont Stakes:
Sir Winston 12/1
War of Will 2/1
UFC 238:
Tatiana Suarez Wins by Inside Distance -140
Tony Ferguson wins by submission +480
PARLAY BOXING + UFC (-277):
Tatiana Suarez (-750)
Valentina Shevchenko (-1100)
Gennady Golovkin (-3500)
Robson Conceicao (-5000)
Ali Akhmedov (-3500)
Israil Madrimov (-5000)
Kentucky Derby, Canelo vs Jacobs thoughts
Kentucky Derby:
To win: Game Winner (5/1)
To win: Cutting Humor 30-1
Canelo vs Jacobs:
Fight Rounds OVER 10.5 @ -250
This should be a fun fight; these guys went at each other in the weigh-ins yesterday but both are durable, tough guys who are itching to be the best pound-for-pound middleweight in a 12 round classic. The “Fight Goes the Distance” prop is at -230 not far off from the OVER so I took a little more juice just in case of a late flurry KO. I do like Canelo in a decision as the fight is in Vegas on Cinco De Mayo so he’ll have the home crowd.
UFC OTTAWA:
DEREK BRUNSON VS ELIAS THEODOROU – Fight Goes the Distance – YES @ -200
Brad Katona +145
Belmont Stakes and UFC 225 plays
Belmont Stakes:
Justify 11/10
Tenfold 10/1
UFC 225:
Rafael Dos Anjos +115
Parlay +861
Sergio Pettis +150, Claudia Gadelha-400, Mike Jackson-200, Rafael Dos Anjos+105
Kentucky Derby and NBA
NBA (We have the Celtics to win the series, +320, so we gotz hedge bucks!)
Philadelphia -8.5
Kentucky Derby:
Good Magic +1000
My Boy Jack +1200
Trifecta:
Justify/Audible/My Boy Jack
UFC Fight Night and Belmont Stakes
Derek Brunson vs Daniel Kelly Will the fight go the distance? – YES @ +115
Mark Hunt wins by KO, TKO, DQ +140
The Belmont Stakes:
Gormley 8-1
NHL BONUS:
PIT +120 (hedge as a part of my NSH +145 series bet)
Canelo vs Chavez Jr, Kentucky Derby 2017
It’s a big day and a big weekend for sports gambling! Today is the Kentucky Derby, followed by a Cinco de Mayo showdown between two of the greater Mexican boxers in the sports, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Julio Caesar Chavez Jr.
BOXING:
Julio Caesar Chavez Jr, known to miss weight, came in exactly at 164 lbs and while he looked pretty gaunt, it wasn’t the worst weight cut in the world for him as his big problem isn’t so much eating as it is much weed (it doesn’t make him a bad guy!). Alvarez is on a tear and is coming down in weight to take on his Mexican rival, which should take away some of his punching power as he usually has waned in both power and output when he’s fought at these lower weights. Chavez Jr is very much a defensive boxer like his dad, although he doesn’t have the ability to be a savage like his father did despite, IMO, having slightly better athletic attributes. I see this one going the distance, so I am taking “Fight Goes the Distance – YES” at -120, and a play on Alvarez by points +125, as Alvarez’s modus operandi is to put on a good fight for the fans in this non-title showdown and get that “W” to build up momentum for his eventual super fight with GGG in 2018.
KENTUCKY DERBY
Classic Empire 4-1
J.Boys Echo 28-1
NHL BONUS:
PIT v WSH Under 5 (+120)
Khan/Alvarez
Fight Goes the Distance +165
Khan has lost twice in his career….both by KO. But he has won his last 5 fights vs decision, and his switch from a new trainer from Freddie Roach was more of an emphasis on his defensive boxing, especially since getting KO’d in a fight he was winning vs Danny Garcia in 2012, which cost him a chance at Floyd Mayweather.
Make no mistake: Saul Alvarez will win this fight. He’s only ever lost to Floyd. He has too much on the line as all he needs to do is coast to a victory to guarantee at shot at Gennady Golvkin. THis matchup is a classic “power vs speed”, as it will be the quicker footwork of Khan, coming up in weight, to face the powerful hooks and body shots of Alvarez.
I think Saul gets into the clinch game with Khan when he can and land more power strikes, but Khan will work around him enough to get to a decision. We took the Cotto/Alvarez over on this site a few months ago, and the one theme in that fight was that Saul pretty much dominated, but got conservative in the final 4 rounds and decided to coast to a victory rather than going for a KO vs Cotto (and open himself up to a counter). AGain, all he (and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) knows is just win the fight, and advance onto a sweet payday vs GGG.
Kentucky Derby Bonus:
Exacta Box (12/13):
1. Nyquist
2. Exaggerated
Longshot:
Majesto 30-1
