Not many big leans this week after a perfect Week 6.
Oakland +1 (-115)
Oakland is coming off a loss against Kansas City at home last week, and travels to Jacksonville to face the lowly Jaguars, who are coming off an inspiring 17-16 win at Chicago. Oakland offensively has averaged more points on the road at home, and considering what a shit hole the Oakland Coliseum is, I don’t blame them for playing more inspired football on the road. The Jaguars should be better with the talent they have in a division that is up for grabs in the AFC South. Lou and I have always said that this is because of their crappy coaching. After last week’s “win” vs Chicago, Head Coach Gus Bradley in his post game speech said that wins over (shitty) teams like Chicago is how you “establish your legacy”. He didn’t even swear, instead saying “that’s how you man the ‘f’ up, men!”. Methinks the lads are rolling their eyes if the HC thinks that wins over shitty teams are how you establish your “legacy”. Gimme the Raiders and the points, here.
New Orleans at Kansas City Under 50.5 (-110)
The Saints high powered offense at home, doesn’t travel so well on the road (minus John Kuhn blowing up in San Diego a few weeks back), especially in grass at one of the toughest places in all of football to play, Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs’ defense also is coming on as of late, and is helped in the Time of Possession department thanks to their (IMO) 3rd best running game (behind Dallas and Buffalo). I expect the Chiefs to run the ball, chew up clock to keep it away from Drew Brees as they make their run towards the AFC West title. I would take the -6.5 (now -6), but I’m gonna tease it instead as the Saints defense also happens to play a little bit better on the road, probably because they aren’t hungover eating delicious food on Bourbon Street the night before (KC does have legendary BBQ, however).
Miami +3 (-130)
This should be a close division style game, and Miami is helped by the fact RB Stud Buffalo’s LeSean McCoy is hurt with a hamstring and will miss this exciting match up. And by “exciting”, I mean, “exciting as much as watching a cat yawn”. The ML could also be a play here too for us as it would be a partial hedge vs our Miami under season bet (7).
Toronto +17 (-115)
EDM @ CGY Under 57.5 (-110)
Giants vs Cubs Under 6 (-110)
Montreal vs Saskatchewan Over 52 (-105)
Podcast #2 coming soon; check out this parlay!
Parlay of the Week: $95 12-Leg Parlay nets $284,905 pic.twitter.com/1gF7ve9BNM
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) October 10, 2016
Put up a big ole donut last week; glad I got it out of the way! There are usually 1-2 weeks a year where one’s bets get cleaned out like losing chips on a roulette table. But I am confident that we can get back on track this week.
It really has been “bizarro year” so far. NFL teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 7-3 ATS this season, Rookie QBs have a W-L of 6-1 and are 7-0 ATS, and if you bet the ML underdog on every game so far this year, you’d be up 10.5 units!!!1111 Usually, if that ratio is at around -10% to -20%, that means it’s a good year for underdogs…nevermind an ROI of +70% or more!
Cleveland +9 (-120)
The Browns are in Washington this week and this line has cratered to around -7 or -7.5. WR Tyrelle Pryor’s play for the Browns has been one of the few bright spots for the team. They lost last week’s game in OT thanks to 3 missed FGs due to a backup kicker; the regular starter got hurt on Friday during a WARM UP. How in the hell does one injure himself in a warm up? This being said, Cody Parker played well last week and the Washington Football Team is flaky in terms of consistent performance during games, never mind week to week. I don’t know how one could be a fan of either of these teams without having a heart attack.
New York Jets +3 (-130)
The juice is high here, but lots to like about the Jets this week, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 6 INTs last week (we have some candidates for now what a 6 INT game is now called: I like the “The Dirty Fitz”, but reader, Bills fan, and fellow contributor Nick also said that the “Fitz 6” is also the more stronger choice). Upside? The Jets offense and Fitz can’t play any worse than that. Russell Wilson is questionable with a knee sprain and didn’t finish the game last week; I drafted him in the 3rd round in one of my leagues and I’ve benched the guy for 2 straight games. Thomas Rawls is out with injury at RB, so the Seahawks had to sign 1st Round bust C.J. Spiller off the street (I also had to pick him up in the same league; I hate running bad in fantasy). The OL has been terrible for Seattle and the Jets have a top 3 defensive line. The game is at 1pm, and West Coast teams due tend to struggle with that (I should of listened to Cousin Sal last week RE: BUF v ARI). I expect a low scoring game, and might throw the Jets in a teaser with the under (40) on a cold, and maybe rainy, day in New Jersey.
Tampa Bay -3.5 (-115)
Trevor Siemian has looked OK so far as QB for the Broncos, leading his team off to a 3-0 start. The under I have at 9 is in jeopardy, but at some point you’d have to think a market correction occurs with this team. While he has good command of the offense, he’s also wildly inconsistent with his accuracy at times; the Bengals last week dropped several interceptions. Denver’s defense has not been as good against the run as they were last year. The Broncos are getting 88% of the money on the road here against a Tampa team that has shown it can throw the ball down the field and keep games close despite lack of depth at RB and in the secondary.
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville Over 49 (-110)
This game is in London; the poor UK fans. That being said, the fail from both of these teams should provide short fields and easy scores for both teams. The over has hit 70% of the time in the London games…this could be due to the teams in the game, but also the fact I think the long flight and trip creates dead legs which cuts into the cardio of the defenders as the game goes along.
IND/JAX Over 49
Ottawa Redblacks +5.5 (-110)
Cortney Casey +110
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson wins by KO, TKO, or DQ -150
Nate Diaz by submission +200
Nate Diaz by Decision +650
Conor McGregor by Decision +500
Diaz v McGregor Over Rounds 2.5 +110
PARLAY @ +275:
Cody Garbrandt -500
Anthony Johnson -205
CFL TEASER BONUS:
Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4 -110
TEASER: CAL -6 + WPG +4
Again, thanks to buffaloholdem on the leans!
Here’s a great way to go into the weekend: LFL highlights!
Nobody told me LFL was this exciting: https://t.co/kOy0gaCe7N
— Chad Johnson (@ochocinco) August 12, 2016
Swansea v Burnley Under 2 (+110)
Wales Pick (+170)
Under 2 (EVEN)
First of all, I am not drunk at 9am in regards to typing the title of this post; that language is Welsh, and it stands for “Long Live Wales”. This guy should get an Emmy for pronouncing this Welsh city name below:
I think today’s Wales v Portugal game will be a rock fight. Portugal hasn’t scored a goal in regular time this whole tourney, and Wales will be missing one of their key offensive players in Aaron Ramsey due to suspension. Portugal has a habit of eventually choking in these things, and I could see Bale scoring and Wales taking home a 1-0 victory (Bale to score and Wales to win is at +400). The draw at +220 is also not a bad play.
UFC 200 leans coming later in the week.
If you need something to fire you up for the week, watch this pep talk given by the coach of the New England Liberty of the LFL league (I didn’t know that NE had a lingerie football team!). He’s pissed his team is getting his ass kicked 70-7 in the 4th.
I need this guy as a life coach:
Redblacks PK -105
Posting my Euro 2016 leans for Saturday as I won’t be able to do them tomorrow as I will be at Foxwoods for the $400 PPC Multiflight NLHE tournament.
Wales drew Northern Ireland, so this will be a contested darby of sorts but N.Ireland is the lowest ranked team in the tournament and only scored 2 goals vs a Ukrainian side with a swiss cheese defense. They will pack it in and make it tough on the Dragons, but I expect Wales to pull it out (that’s what she said) in the end. I also like the 1-0 exacta, with Bale scoring the goal (I am kicking myself at not taking him as Golden Goal scorer at 18-to-1. It’s basically down to him and Spain’s Morata).
Croatia +165 and Over 2 (-105)
Croatia is not the most fit, but man have they looked impressive in the final third even with their bench guys. Just a well run, clinical operation and a dark horse pick to win it all, especially if Modric can get back to being somewhat fit. Their opponent, Portugal, has more individual talent, but in each of their games they have gone asleep at the wheel defensively, as well as commit dumb turnovers and fouls in their own end. I am surprised the Over is only at 2 with low juice; I’d say it should be 2.5 with higher juice so we are getting value here. This should be a fun, open game.
Winnipeg -2 (-110)
First of all, h/t to buffaloholdem over at Twitter for his CFL thoughts. It’s become quite a place to find lots of value. Who knew 3 down football was so profitable!
Also if you are betting CFL this season you can check out my handicapping video from last year: https://t.co/yRdUBXOnWh
— buffaloholdem (@buffaloholdem) June 23, 2016
There’s DFS CFL now as well (and yes, rouges *do* count) so he’s a good source if you need any tips before places down your bets.
Here’s another nugget of CFL wisdom for the year:
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) June 22, 2016
DET vs KC Over 45
MIN v CHI Over 43
McCown *is* playing today, and the public is HEAVY on ARI:
Cardinals are the most popular spread bet (82%), moneyline bet (78%), and parlay/teaser (91%) of the day: https://t.co/m8ZX71nzo2
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 1, 2015
MTL v SAS Over 44
Now here is your NFL Quiz of the Day:
JIM CALDWELL EXPRESSION QUIZ:
e) Horny pic.twitter.com/WO5vNIXEya
— Ethan Booker (@Ethan_Booker) October 6, 2015
This KC/TOR series will be fun. It’s going 7, so I bet the total games at 7 (+180), and KC to win in 7 (+425) and TOR to win in 7 (+420). These two teams also don’t like each other, and quite honestly, I think the winner of this series wins the whole thing (unless the Cubs win and bring upon us the end times).
Leaning on NYM v CHI Over, whatever it is, tomorrow. I think 6.5 was the number I saw.
Here’s a sweet catch from last night:
One of the most amazing plays you'll ever see. pic.twitter.com/vFvvK0Bgzx
— Richard Roeper (@richardroeper) October 16, 2015