After the Seahawks easily disposed of the Saints on Monday, I decided to take the plunge at 11/10 to take them to win the NFC. They have a virtual 3 game lead on the conference, own the tiebreaker over the Panthers (the only team left that might have a chance to beat them in that building…and they are in a fight with the Saints in the NFC South), and are the most balanced team in football right now. They have the largest average of margin in wins in the NFL this year, and 2nd in total points (behind the Broncos). I believe that with their home field advantage, that the only thing holding them back to NYC is an injury (especially to Marshawn Lynch).
The Seahawks can be run on, and will be run on by the 49ers this week who are desperate and playing for the Wild Card lives (hence why I’ll take the 49ers -3 at home @ +105 along with the ML at -137 this week)….but if they face them the 3rd time around, it will be in Seattle, where Kaepernick has shown to crap his pants. Seattle will most likely finish the year 14-2 or 13-3, as they finish up the year Giants, Cardinals, and Rams. I also create some fun hedging opportunities in the playoffs with this scenario (I can only hope Carolina gets double digits in Seattle in a playoff game) with this, so I consider this a +EV prop.
The Seahawks are 5/2 to win the entire thing. Interesting if that will change depending on their playoff performance.
I also like:
New Orleans vs Carolina Over 46
Teaser: Arizona -6 (vs St.Louis) and Under 42
Giants +155 ML (at San Diego)
Also might have some plays on Baltimore (vs MIN, -7, 42 O/U) and Denver (vs TEN, -13, 49 O/U) at home, but they are weather dependent as storms will be across the US on Sunday with ice, snow, and wind. Indy +7 is temping, but it has too much juice (-120) for my taste.
Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva Over 1.5 rounds +130
Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh +375 (is fighting in his home country of Australia vs Ryan Bader, whose lost his last 2 of his last 3 fights).
Our tweet of the week comes again from WagerMinds:
The NFL's worst team against the spread? Yep, it's the Marc Trestman-led Chicago Bears at 2-8-2.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 3, 2013
Nate Diaz +105
Teasers: NE -9 and Over 47 at HOU; Atlanta +3.5 and Over 48 at BUF
Jacksonville +7 (even) also will throw this in teaser with Under 40.5 vs Cleveland
49ers -7 vs St. Louis
Our bet of the week comes from the WagerMinds twitter:
A $100 parlay on Auburn and Penn State to win outright would have paid $8,056. Sadly, no one on earth bet it.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 1, 2013
Baltimore and Chicago Under 44 (-105)
Teaser: Seattle (-13) and Denver (-8) and NY Giants (-6)
Oakland +9 (is it me or is this line a bit too big?)
Cleveland +6 and in teaser with Under (42)
I might also take Tampa in a pick’em after everybody and their mother bet them last Monday night versus the not-so-Incognito Dolphins. But it depends on whether Tony Gonzalez plays or not.
Ali “Puncher King” Bagautinov +130
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -250
Now I leave you with the “Own Goal of the Year” in basketball:
UFC on Fox Sports 1 tonight. I am currently up 9.5 units on the year in MMA, let’s keep this ball rolling.
On top of that, the fights tonight are at Fort Campbell for the US Troops, benefiting the Intrepid Fund, which benefits soldiers with tramatic brain injury. You can check out the site and make a donation here.
Here are my picks:
Michael “Maverick” Chiesa vs Colton Smith to go the distance at +110
Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Over 70
I’ve hit this 4 weeks in a row. As long as Manizel plays….and we’re gambling. Vandy also averages 33 points a game, and 37 at home.
Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson +130
KC – 9 and Teaser with Under 39.5 vs CLE
Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns. I had the displeasure of watching this guy in the second half of a Ravens game I bet on……the line was a sweat but with the way Campbell threw the ball (in the dirt): it wasn’t. He’s awful. If this were Weeden, I’d stay away…but we will take the points.
Dallas +3 + Over 48 Teaser @ DET
This should be a wild game full of mistakes. Could turn out to be important in the wild card picture in the NFC
Denver/Washington Over 59
The Over in Denver’s games this year is 6-0-1 so far this year. Plus anytime I get to bet an over where D’Angelo Hall is involved, I jump in it.
New Orleans -11
Might also throw this in a teaser with GB (-10) at Minnesota.
I am also betting against Tampa Bay the rest of the year…….to put it bluntly, they hate their coach. I put a hundo on the Panthers Thursday (who are playing really good ball right now) wit hthis logic in mind. The only thing that stopped Cam Newton on Thursday night was the Bucs’ cannon:
“Looooooooooots of action!” as Karna would say, trying to recover from a disastrous Thursday.
Texas A&M vs Auburn Over 72 (Manziel has been killing these overs. A&M’s defense isn’t very good, either).
Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga +150 (Brazilian, fights out of Ludwig, MA. Good veteran, has won last 3 fights by TKO. Fighting Shawn Jordan, who used to play DT at LSU..athletic but raw talent who has won last 4 fights).
Andy Reid is back in Philly tonight, after coaching there for 13+ seasons, as the HC of the KC Chiefs. The Chiefs are of to their first 2-0 start since 2010, and are currently the best red zone team in the league (5-for-5, all TDs) and the only one left without a turnover. Their defense isn’t half bad either (as long as the super duper safety Eric Berry stays healthy).
We also have the Eagles Over trend which I’ve hit the last two weeks. Between them running 85-90 plays a game, and their atrocious defense (they and the Chargers last week put on a “How NOT to tackle” clinic), this lines up to be another night to take the over straight up, yes?
I say no. I will say, despite me betting against the Chargers this year, Mike McCoy runs a great gameplan (once he gets his guys in there, this team will do better….but in a year or two). The Chargers possessed the ball last week for more than 3/5ths of the game; this, IMO, is how you have to beat the Eagles’ attack….possess the ball and give your defense some rest (the Chargers are so bad on defense it didn’t matter anyways as our over hit, but KC defense is better than SD). You know a motivated Reid knows the blueprint (and the horses to do so with RB Jamal Charles). Also, playing a short week this week….and from experience……these games tend to be AWFUL football. The players are tired, the coaches don’t have enough time to prepare, all while the NFL laughs all the way to the bank. Too bad we are such degenerate gamblers in this country, we can’t help but still not watch (and still bet the over in some capacity).
That’s why I like the tease here: KC to +9.5 and and Over to 44 (-110). These teams play close games, and someone winning 24-20 is a definite possibility (bets saved are bets earned). I just hope Vick doesn’t get hurt (but he probably will).
New York Giants +1 (at Carolina, -105)
Giants need a win after going 0-2, and despite their crappy defensive play and Eli turning it over like a omelet, they’ve averaged scoring 27.5 pts/game. Carolina has lost two gut wrenching games, their offense can’t score TDs, and they make dumb penalties at the worst times……thanks to their shitty coach Ron Rivera (who gets fired first, him or Schiano?). Coughlin will get these guys motivated to win. We’ll take the points (and its now to a pick’em).
Vikings -7 (+105)
Vikings are also desperate at 0-2 in their home opener, losing two close games in their early weeks. The Browns just traded away their best player (RB Trent Richardson) to the Colts for a 1st round pick next year (GREAT trade for Browns, IMO…..and they might also go 0-16 and get the 1st round pick! The bang-bang!*), Ohio native and MSU alum Brian Hoyer (former backup for the Pats) is starting at QB, and the Browns signed 40 year old Willis McGahee (I picked him up in all of my leagues, I admit it). We’re getting juice, although the QB we are betting on isn’t that much better……but Ponder’s Home/Road splits are night and day. And the Vikings have AP. We’ll give the points and #andwearegambling
*Cleveland plays the Jaguars on December 1st, and it could be the first time we had an negative undefeated (a positive way to say, “no wins”) toilet bowl this deep into a season since the 0-9 Patriots played the 0-8 Colts in 1990. I’m giddy at the thought of this being a pick’em.
Lions/Washington R.G. Threes Over (whatever it is)
It’s off the board because Bush is (probably) not going to play, but Joique Bell has been a “steady” RB sleeper in fantasy as he’d played in nearly half the snaps in the games as the backup (also picks up the blitz better. That equals playing time). These teams can both move the ball, make big plays as well as give up big plays. Add a motivated Robert Griffin III….. probably the game of the day, here.
I have have the urge to be a huge degen and take the Seahawks -19 vs Jacksonville at home…….but I’ll probably still tease it with something like Denver because I just can’t stop betting. We’ll see how the day goes.
Extra Credit – UFC:
As the 2013 NFL season approaches, it’s a clean slate for everybody. You know, like when a coach calls a timeout before an opposing FG….and the kicker misses the FG.
I have various future action this year:
Cincinnati (+215, now to +200) to win AFC North
I’m counting on a Lewis-less Baltimore decline (also, their slot WR and backup tight end combing age would be eligible for Medicare), a depth deprived Steelers team (with no offensive line), and the poor Browns to contribute to one of the weaker divisions of the year. I believe Cincy, on paper: has the NFLs 2nd best defense (behind Seattle), unique weapons on the outside in Gresham and AJ Green (the second best WR in the NFL) and they are deep in the RB department. Their second half schedule is SUPER weak too. They might start the year 2-3 or 1-4 and finish 11-5.
Chargers Under 7.5 (-125)
Fuck Philip Rivers. That is all.
Here’s also some random UFC action tonight (hint: bet fighters FROM Brazil fighting IN BRAZIL vs fighters who AREN’T); I’ll post my NFL picks later in the week
Amazing stuff here; Gus mus love him a rouge.
Things we’re rooting for:
The Heat to lose Game 6 so I can bet my BR on them in Game 7.
Bruins first to score in Game 1 on the EDF vs Pittsburgh (+110)
Thiago Silva +170 vs Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante on UFC on FUEL TV 10