Category: UFC

UFC on FOX 10

Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens vs Darren Elkins Under Rounds 1.5 @ +155

Sergio “The Phenom” Pettis wins by Inside Distance +185

Darren “The Detroit Superstar” Cruckshank vs Mike “The Wolverine” Rio Fight Goes Distance +190

Gabriel “Napo” Gonzaga to win +200

Benson “Smooth” Henderson -300

I also think Pat Darts got drunk in the Mr.Met costume:

Mr.Met meets a bottle of vodka

Failure Games

Went a paltry 3-10-0 last week (thought it was only 2 wins, but my drunken ass forgot I bet on the Giants +9.5 #thanksdarts).  My best weeks however are usually Weeks 1, 6, and 17.  This year a little more tricky, especially if i have to bet on the coaching decisions like below.

Guess who it is: Sean playing Madden DRUNK, or an NFL coach SOBER:

  • When you turn the game on, and you see fist/chest pumping furiously between HC and his assistants on the sidelines after the opposing defense commits an offside penalty with 4th-and-3 with 1:45 to go, tied 31-31, opposing team having no timeouts, on the center of the 7-yard-line…..I mean, game over, right?
  • Next play: HC/Off. Coordinator: “LETS RUN THE BALL straight up the middle on first down.” (Someone has Le’Veon Bell on their fantasy team!).
  • The defense, still playing hard (but not thinking; they didn’t get those scholarships in college for MATH), tackles the ball carrier at the 3-yard-line, stopping him short (and keeping the clock running; may the record show your honor that the defense just set 0:45 on fire). The optimal play on the defensive side is to let them score to get the ball back to try and win the game (see: Packers 1998 Super Bowl and Patriots 2011 Super Bowl…..both teams failed to score, but at least they had the opportunity.  Arizona’s Darnell Dockett is still slowly catching on to this).
  • Off Coordinator/HC: “Oh wait, you forgot last time to let him score?  FINE – LETS RUN THE BALL UP THE MIDDLE AGAIN“.  Has the offensive coaching been taken over by a combination of DaGowin and Steve Spurrier?  The defense and coach finally figure out this uncomplicated addition problem, and the offense scores a TD, making it 38-31 with 1 minute left to play (Merry fuckin’ Christmas to the offense bettors, we’re live baby)!
  • Special Teams Coach: “Instead of squid kicking on a dry, cold field………you know what we should do, up a TD with a minute left?  Let’s kick the ball deep to one of the best returners of the second half this year, that way he can get blocks setup to return the KO all the way to the 33-yard-line to setup a short field for a TD*.  Let’s make this exciting for the fans at home and those who stayed at the snowy confines of Lambeau Field”.  *Listen, Darts and Sean have the offense here…..they pay WAY too much rake to at least not deserve a sweat on these outstandingly mediocre shitty football teams.
  • Off Coordinator: “Then we’ll get ball all the way to the 4-yard-line, 0:30 seconds left, no timeouts.  You know what we should do?  Let’s run the ball up the middle out of the shotgun formation!  The Steelers, one of the best run defenses in the NFL, won’t see that coming!”
  • Everyone in America: “Dudes you HAVE NO TIMEOUTS!!!!!!11111″
  • Shit, of course a pre-snap penalty for false starts as the lineman tried to get a jump on the ball for a RUNNING PLAY.  But hey: sick sweat as the time runs off 10 seconds, and the clock starts at the whistle.  Gamblers hearts are flurry.  Surely the QB, Center, and coach are prepared to get 2, maybe 3 plays off……
  • …..Crickets.  I’m stunned.  Darts is finishing off a vodka nip stunned.  Everyone in the crowd, on the stands, the commentators, and worst of all: the most confused is the QB of the football team, Matt Flynn (who was signed by the Raiders for $6.5m/year), who had to be reminded by the referee that THE CLOCK HAS STARTED AT HIS WHISTLE.  Instead, a rushed hurried pass play occurs with 0:06 left, and throw a slant incomplete. The defense wins (by default).

Maybe they should have called the below, least he hits this guy in stride:

And remember, as Darts said (after Cleveland’s Grudzinski went for a 2 pointer up 12-3 in the 3rd quarter vs NE for no reason, other than the oracle of a premonition that he was going to lose the game by 1 point, 27-26): “How do these fucking guys have jobs? And get paid millions* to do this shit?” 

*Even Marvin Lewis doesn’t screw up that bad (BTW thanks for winning the AFC North division when I got it at +200, coach!).

On second though, I shouldn’t compare these clowns to Drunken Madden Head Coach Sean.  Could be onto something, its like Popeye and Spinach!  Get me a 12 pack and I turn into the Belligerent Bill Walsh!

NFL Picks: Despite the failure of Mike McCarthy above, taking the Packers -3 (-105) at Chicago.  Rodgers at 80% > Cutler at 100%.  Although watch Cutler get hurt, McCown wins the game, and Cutler gets let go by the Bears and goes and signs with the New York Jets for $80m/6 years!  Fun times!

Tampa at New Orleans Over 47.  Will also throw this in teaser with BUF at NE Under 53 (heavy ice/rain downpours are expected on Sunday afternoon, intensifying throughout the game).

Seattle vs St Louis Under 43.  Will also tease this with the line at -11 (St Louis defense is good, but not Arizona good, who might be in the best form in the league right now defensively.  Too bad Carson Palmer is their QB. Therefore……)

SF -1 (-105) Bet against Carson Palmer in a big game? Yes, plz.  Unless they put Patrick Peterson in the game at QB.  I might also take the under here, but that’s almost TOO cheeky, especially in the BioDome…..things happen.

KC at SD Over 45 The defensive guys will have been drinking the night before as this game means nothing.  Wouldn’t YOU also be drinking in San Diego?

UFC 168:

Uriah Hall vs Chris “The Crippler” Leben Fight goes distance +110 This is a “win-or-lose-your-job” match…and these tend to be close to the vest.  One guy is an somewhat over-the-hill former top prospect (who once fought Anderson Silva) and recovering opioid addict (Leben) who is fighting to hang on to his career.  The other (Hall)? A young-gun-hype-disappointment that was criticized by UFC President Dana White for being too nice in the ring when it came to hugs and such pre-round.  On the other hand, Hall did do this:

Fabricio “Morango” Camoes wins inside distance +650 Small speculative play; if he wins, it’s by submission.  Miller, who is a fun fighter to watch and a tough dude from New Jersey (whose brother also fights in the UFC), this will be his 4th fight of the year.  Fighters only win around 33-43% of those fights on average because of the wear-and-tear of not just the fights themselves, but mostly due to the training.  Probably harder than the fight most of the time, especially in the lower weight classes, because fighters must make weight which is very difficult.

Jim Miller vs Fabricio “Morango” Camoes – Total Rounds Under 2.5 (-115)  This could also be fight of the night (20-to-1) if it wasn’t for that Anderson Silva guy fighting.  Classic maniac striker (Miller) vs 3rd degree BBJ (Camoes).  Camoes also once fought Anderson Silva for 27 minutes…..with his BARE HANDS.  This is Camoes first fight in the UFC, despite being a MMA veteran.

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier vs Diego “DB” Brandao Fight will not go 3 rounds -155 I just saw the weigh-ins, and these motherfucker DO NOT LIKE EACH OTHER.  So don’t the girls’ belt clash with Rousey and Tate, but with 10 straight 1st round arm bars for Rousey, that trend just means the line goes to -1400 (+575).

Anderson Silva -185 Why not?  He’s HOF, and it’s probably the lowest you’ll ever get him in a fight again, unless it’s Jon “Bones” Jones (who would probably be -125).

 

 

 

Quick Hits

UFC:

Joseph Benavidez +110 (He’s a Duane “Bang” Ludwig fighter, we’ve had a 75% win rate betting on this guy”s fighters.  Also, this is the second time he is facing Flyweight Champ Demarius “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, who has defended his title 4x’s in a row……and beat Benevidez 49-48 in a split decision in 2012.  It lines up for us well as the “3rd rematch” fix theory is also in play).
Over 1.5 Rounds Sam Stout/Cody McKenzie Fight (Neither gets knocked out much)
Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon by submission (always take a flyer on this prop…..Lauzon, a MMA fighter out of Brockton, is a submission guru, holding the UFC record for most submissions of the night….50K a piece…..at 4).
NCAA:
Teaser: Army +13.5 and Under 52 (Let’s go Army!  They have lost the last 8 games to Navy, but have narrowed the margin each year, covering the last 2 years.  Plus the run the ball 70% of the time….if not more.  On a blustery day, they should keep it close and low).

Seattle Superbowl

After the Seahawks easily disposed of the Saints on Monday, I decided to take the plunge at 11/10 to take them to win the NFC.  They have a virtual 3 game lead on the conference, own the tiebreaker over the Panthers (the only team left that might have a chance to beat them in that building…and they are in a fight with the Saints in the NFC South), and are the most balanced team in football right now.  They have the largest average of margin in wins in the NFL this year, and 2nd in total points (behind the Broncos).  I believe that with their home field advantage, that the only thing holding them back to NYC is an injury (especially to Marshawn Lynch).

The Seahawks can be run on, and will be run on by the 49ers this week who are desperate and playing for the Wild Card lives (hence why I’ll take the 49ers -3 at home @ +105 along with the ML at -137 this week)….but if they face them the 3rd time around, it will be in Seattle, where Kaepernick has shown to crap his pants.   Seattle will most likely finish the year 14-2 or 13-3, as they finish up the year Giants, Cardinals, and Rams.  I also create some fun hedging opportunities in the playoffs with this scenario (I can only hope Carolina gets double digits in Seattle in a playoff game) with this, so I consider this a +EV prop.

The Seahawks are 5/2 to win the entire thing.  Interesting if that will change depending on their playoff performance.

I also like:

New Orleans vs Carolina Over 46

Teaser: Arizona -6 (vs St.Louis) and Under 42

Giants +155 ML (at San Diego)

Also might have some plays on Baltimore (vs MIN, -7, 42 O/U) and Denver (vs TEN, -13, 49 O/U) at home, but they are weather dependent as storms will be across the US on Sunday with ice, snow, and wind.  Indy +7 is temping, but it has too much juice (-120) for my taste.

UFC:

Mark “Super  Samoan” Hunt vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva Over 1.5 rounds +130

Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh +375 (is fighting in his home country of Australia vs Ryan Bader, whose lost his last 2 of his last 3 fights).

Our tweet of the week comes again from WagerMinds:

 

Week 13 Quick Slants

UFC:

Nate Diaz +105

NFL:

Teasers: NE -9 and Over 47 at HOU; Atlanta +3.5 and Over 48 at BUF

Jacksonville +7 (even) also will throw this in teaser with Under 40.5 vs Cleveland

49ers -7 vs St. Louis

Our bet of the week comes from the WagerMinds twitter:

 

 

 

Weekend Picks

NFL:

Baltimore and Chicago Under 44 (-105)

Teaser: Seattle (-13) and Denver (-8) and NY Giants (-6)

Oakland +9 (is it me or is this line a bit too big?)

Cleveland +6 and in teaser with Under (42)

I might also take Tampa in a pick’em after everybody and their mother bet them last Monday night versus the not-so-Incognito Dolphins.  But it depends on whether Tony Gonzalez plays or not.

UFC:

Ali “Puncher King” Bagautinov +130

 

Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -250

Now I leave you with the “Own Goal of the Year” in basketball:

 

Fight Club

UFC on Fox Sports 1 tonight.  I am currently up 9.5 units on the year in MMA, let’s keep this ball rolling.

On top of that, the fights tonight are at Fort Campbell for the US Troops, benefiting the Intrepid Fund, which benefits soldiers with tramatic brain injury.  You can check out the site and make a donation here.

Here are my picks:

Michael “Maverick” Chiesa vs Colton Smith to go the distance at +110

Liz “Girl-Rilla” Carmouche at – 200 (former Marine, held her own vs Ronda Rousey, the women’s champion) vs Alexis “Ally-Gator” Davis
Rafael “Sapo” Natal (Abu Dhabi winner, the premier black belt jiu-jitsu competition) to win by submission 16-to-1 vs Tim Kennedy

 

Saturday Streaking

NCAA:

Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Over 70

I’ve hit this 4 weeks in a row.  As long as Manizel plays….and we’re gambling.  Vandy also averages 33 points a game, and 37 at home.

UFC:

Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson +130

Lyoto ” The Dragon ” Machida wins by 5 round decision +195

NFL:

KC – 9 and Teaser with Under 39.5 vs CLE

Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns.  I had the displeasure of watching this guy in the second half of a Ravens game I bet on……the line was a sweat but with the way Campbell threw the ball (in the dirt): it wasn’t.  He’s awful.  If this were Weeden, I’d stay away…but we will take the points.

Dallas +3 + Over 48 Teaser @ DET

This should be a wild game full of mistakes.  Could turn out to be important in the wild card picture in the NFC

Denver/Washington Over 59

The Over in Denver’s games this year is 6-0-1 so far this year. Plus anytime I get to bet an over where D’Angelo Hall is involved, I jump in it.

New Orleans -11

Might also throw this in a teaser with GB (-10) at Minnesota.

I am also betting against Tampa Bay the rest of the year…….to put it bluntly, they hate their coach.  I put a hundo on the Panthers Thursday (who are playing really good ball right now) wit hthis logic in mind.   The only thing that stopped Cam Newton on Thursday night was the Bucs’ cannon:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Tc6GbsmAnJs

Quick Hits

“Looooooooooots of action!” as Karna would say, trying to recover from a disastrous Thursday.

NCAA:

Texas A&M vs Auburn Over 72 (Manziel has been killing these overs.  A&M’s defense isn’t very good, either).

UFC:

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga +150 (Brazilian, fights out of Ludwig, MA.  Good veteran, has won last 3 fights by TKO.  Fighting Shawn Jordan, who used to play DT at LSU..athletic but raw talent who has won last 4 fights).

Andre “Touchy” Fili wins inside distance +125 (He’s a Duane “Bang” Ludwig Fighter….trains with Joseph Benedivdez, who is the #1 Featherweight in the world.  These guys at Team Alpha Male have been killing it recently).
NFL:
Detroit -3 (+105) vs Cincinnati (Hedge on my Cincy bet, and Detroit at home will always be able to move the ball with Bush And Megatron healthy.  I’d bet the over if Andy Dalton could actually be accurate with the ball).
Denver at Colts Over 57 (I think after the comments made by his former owner Jim Irsay made this week, Peyton Manning is going to hang a big crooked number just to remind him of how good he is.  Plus, Indy’s defense is struggling, especially vs the run.  That sets up PA).
Bears -1 at Washington R.G. Threes (I feel like this should be bigger).
Teaser: Packers (-10 vs CLE) + JAX (+9 vs SD) + DEN/IND Over 52

Steak n’ Cheese

Andy Reid is back in Philly tonight, after coaching there for 13+ seasons, as the HC of the KC Chiefs.  The Chiefs are of to their first 2-0 start since 2010, and are currently the best red zone team in the league (5-for-5, all TDs) and the only one left without a turnover.  Their defense isn’t half bad either (as long as the super duper safety Eric Berry stays healthy).

We also have the Eagles Over trend which I’ve hit the last two weeks.  Between them running 85-90 plays a game, and their atrocious defense (they and the Chargers last week put on a “How NOT to tackle” clinic), this lines up to be another night to take the over straight up, yes?

I say no.  I will say, despite me betting against the Chargers this year, Mike McCoy runs a great gameplan (once he gets his guys in there, this team will do better….but in a year or two).  The Chargers possessed the ball last week for more than 3/5ths of the game; this, IMO, is how you have to beat the Eagles’ attack….possess the ball and give your defense some rest (the Chargers are so bad on defense it didn’t matter anyways as our over hit, but KC defense is better than SD).  You know a motivated Reid knows the blueprint (and the horses to do so with RB Jamal Charles).  Also, playing a short week this week….and from experience……these games tend to be AWFUL football.  The players are tired, the coaches don’t have enough time to prepare, all while the NFL laughs all the way to the bank.  Too bad we are such degenerate gamblers in this country, we can’t help but still not watch (and still bet the over in some capacity).

That’s why I like the tease here: KC to +9.5 and and Over to 44 (-110).  These teams play close games, and someone winning 24-20 is a definite possibility (bets saved are bets earned).  I just hope Vick doesn’t get hurt (but he probably will).

New York Giants +1 (at Carolina, -105)

Giants need a win after going 0-2, and despite their crappy defensive play and Eli turning it over like a omelet, they’ve averaged scoring 27.5 pts/game.  Carolina has lost two gut wrenching games, their offense can’t score TDs, and they make dumb penalties at the worst times……thanks to their shitty coach Ron Rivera (who gets fired first, him or Schiano?).    Coughlin will get these guys motivated to win.  We’ll take the points (and its now to a pick’em).

Vikings -7 (+105)

Vikings are also desperate at 0-2 in their home opener, losing two close games in their early weeks.  The Browns just traded away their best player (RB Trent Richardson) to the Colts for a 1st round pick next year (GREAT trade for Browns, IMO…..and they might also go 0-16 and get the 1st round pick!  The bang-bang!*), Ohio native and MSU alum Brian Hoyer (former backup for the Pats) is starting at QB, and the Browns signed 40 year old Willis McGahee (I picked him up in all of my leagues, I admit it).  We’re getting juice, although the QB we are betting on isn’t that much better……but Ponder’s Home/Road splits are night and day.  And the Vikings have AP.  We’ll give the points and #andwearegambling

*Cleveland plays the Jaguars on December 1st, and it could be the first time we had an negative undefeated (a positive way to say, “no wins”) toilet bowl this deep into a season since the 0-9 Patriots played the 0-8 Colts in 1990.  I’m giddy at the thought of this being a pick’em.

Lions/Washington R.G. Threes Over (whatever it is)

It’s off the board because Bush is (probably) not going to play,  but Joique Bell has been a “steady” RB sleeper in fantasy as he’d played in nearly half the snaps in the games as the backup (also picks up the blitz better. That equals playing time).  These teams can both move the ball, make big plays as well as give up big plays.  Add a motivated Robert Griffin III….. probably the game of the day, here.

I have have the urge to be a huge degen and take the Seahawks -19 vs Jacksonville at home…….but I’ll probably still tease it with something like Denver because I just can’t stop betting.  We’ll see how the day goes.

Extra Credit – UFC:

John “The Bull” Makdessi – 225
Renan Barao vs Eddie Wineland – Will the fight go the distance?+250