Miracle Covers

Early Thoughts

First of all, who the hell ISN’T loving Ballgate?  This below makes everything totally worth it; I just wonder whether or not this MOTIVATES the Pats (when they destroy teams after stuff happens like this) or if it DEFLATES them (see what I did there).

The Best Of Tom Brady’s Unintentional Balls Innuendo At His #Deflategate Press Conference http://t.co/cukh8KyMVH pic.twitter.com/QgedZjML9h

— BuzzFeed (@BuzzFeed) January 22, 2015

Former Pats’ QB Drew Bledsoe says that Tom is all about work ethic, and I certainly hope he’s right and I wouldn’t want Tom to pull a Ryan Braun on Drew.

As for any early leans, I don’t have any thoughts on the spread as of this point (the line moves have been interesting, however those who say they are the biggest moves in a while forget both the 2001 and 2007 Super Bowls, which saw big favorites lose 35-45% of their margins from start to finish), but I do like the over at 48.5 (-105), and the following props: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson for MVP (both at 13/4),  and Bill Belichick to not be seen smiling for the entire game (-200).

1st look at LVH Super Bowl Props 2015 @beatingthebook pic.twitter.com/DZEfjpvA1S

— Harvey Haddix (@SportsDirector) January 23, 2015

Also an early UFC leans: Phil Davis vs Ryan Bader Goes Distance -260 and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (+220) in Sweden vs Alexander Gustafsson.

NBA BONUS: Love my Celtics, but have to take the Blazers -7 at home at the Rose Garden tonight.  I’ve been there, it’s a great arena and I feel this line should be at -8.5 and above.  The Celtics have not won against a Western team on the road since 2013.

NFL Championship Sunday

Seattle -7.5 (-105)

I have Seattle 13/2 to win the NFC, so I usually hedge with Green Bay here.  But with a banged up Rodgers, an average running game, and the fact Green Bay got destroyed here in Week 1…..I just think Seattle gets it done today and becomes the first back-to-back Super Bowl attended since Denver in 1997 and 1998.  I also like the Under (45, -115) as winds could get up to 60mph, effecting the passing games.   I am more afraid of the miracle cover TD that means nothing than GB actually winning the game.   GB basically lost this game when they lost to Buffalo at the end of the year (they would of had home field if they won).

The Seahawks have won 8 straight playoff games at home. Their 10-2 playoff record at home is tied for the best in NFL history.

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 18, 2015

New England -7 (EVEN)

This is at 6-6.5 at some books.  Very interesting game in terms of lines.  My worry is that EVERYBODY is picking the Pats; no one is on the Colts and Lou even thinks they have a chance to win.  The Pats are flawed, but this team this year just finds some way to pull games out of their ass (I am still watching the Edleman-to-Amendola TD on loop daily; the best part is the “awkward white guy high fives” and also Edleman winding his arm like its sore).  Even if they lose 50% production on the running game as an aggregate average vs the last 3 times they’ve played the Colts, they would still gain 115.5 yards on the ground.  Luck is a good QB, and has improved each year…..its not his time yet.  It reminds me of a young LeBron carrying the Cavs on his back in 2007 just to get to the finals to lose to the Spurs (who the Pats are compared to often).   Luck will be in many of these games, he just won’t win this one.  Boom Herron somewhat scares me, but he’ll fumble the ball at a key moment.  It is expected to POUR in the 3rd and 4th quarter; Brady’s record in bad weather game is ridiculous (I think he’s batting 90%, and has never lost in the snow).

I’m also going to be a total fish and parlaying the MLs for both Seattle (-340) and New England (-275) and putting them in a teaser (like 90% of America).

I also like the following props:

Which market will have the higher ratings: Boston +300 (yes, you can bet on this.  As a guy who follows this stuff closely, this has a great chance as it is a) a game in primetime on a Sunday Night b) 3/4ths of all households watched the Pats game on a SATURDAY NIGHT c) Danny Amendola is playing and the people of New England cannot miss his brilliance).

Over Total receiving yards Danny Amendola 32.5 (-115)

He’s the J.D. Drew for this run; the overpaid guy who has underperformed (granted, due to injury) but then pulls brilliance out of his ass when it counts during a title run.  Also, I don’t think the Colts secondary is all that good…Manning had guys wide open and missed them all day last week.  Brady will not be as kind.

Will there be a two point conversion made? Yes @ +560

If the Colts are behind, they’ll probably have to attempt one at some point.

UFC Bonus:

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone +115

Ron “The Choir Boy” Stallings +525

The Quest for Perfection

Before every playoff year, every bettor and prognosticator has their eye on one thing: getting all 11 playoff games right (whether it’s a simple win bracket, or in the case of the spread, going undefeated).  It’s almost become an impossibility over the last few years thanks to the New Age of NFL Parity.  Upsets, surprises, and sure locks all drown in a sea of tears and tossed away losing betting slips on the floor.

The closest I ever got was in 2011 when I went 9-2 (the only blemishes: Tim Tebow beating Pittsburgh in OT, and the Giants winning in GB in the second round).  Let’s hope this year brings in perfection.  Now, to today’s games (picks in BOLD):

Arizona at Carolina (-6, started at -4)

I just can’t take Ryan Lindley on the road against a defense that has been top 5 in all defensive statistics in their last 8 games.  I also have no idea who Kerwynn Williams (Arizona’s RB) is.  Carolina’s offense certainly will have issues moving the ball vs Arizona’s tough defense, but in betting against Arizona the last few weeks….you can tell they are getting gassed.  And not just physically, due to the endless 3-and-outs their woeful offense endures, making them spend the majority of the game on the field; also mentally because their crappy QB situation taxes the momentum of a team when they can’t score.  The only thing I am concerned of here: the coaching mismatch between Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera….that and the fact the majority of America has Carolina today.  Add to the fact I am probably going to tease this with Dallas (and already hate myself for doing so), and it’s clear what my New Year’s Resolution is: setting as much money on fire as possible.  I’ll also tease Carolina with the Under (38, now at 37.5) as well.  I think both games are tight slugfests today.

Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh

No 100% LeVeon Bell is *huge* for Pittsburgh; he’ll probably won’t play.  He sets up everything for that offense, and allows their WRs to get more space because safeties and linebackers have to honor the line of scrimmage at the snap to account for anything he does; this hesitation allows for big gains in the middle of the field for the passing game.  Areas of concern: Even though Pittsburgh’s defense sucks and is missing CB Ike Taylor, Baltimore’s offense is putrid, especially on the road.  They’ve averaged 22 points on the road this year, but that’s only because they scored 48 in one game at Tampa.  Take that result out, and it’s 17 points game; in today’s NFL, that’s really bad.  Flacco is probably is also hurt because their OL kinda blows.  So then: what gives them a chance in this game?  Their front 7; the reason Baltimore is even as good on defense statistically as they are is because of guys like Daryl Smith (who has done a wonderful job of attempting to replace the legend of Ray Lewis), Terrell Suggs (who as one tweeter put it, “looks like a penis”), Courtney Upshaw, and Haloti Ngata (who comes back off of an Adderall suspension today).  People will say, “but their secondary blows”….but could you name anyone in the New York Giants’ secondary when they won their titles?  Or even anyone not named Ed Reed in the 2012 Ravens’ title squad?  No, you can’t, and it didn’t matter because in the NFL, even with today’s new rules, if you win the line of scrimmage….you win the game (most of the time).  Add to the fact that this game, a lot like NYJ vs NE or ATL vs NO, is a hotly contested rivalry matchup where the games are always close no matter what the records are going in.  Add some potential snow/rain/ice to the mix?  I like the under as well at 45.5, which is way too high IMO.

Parlay Special:

CAR ML -260

CAR/ARI Under 38

BAL/PIT Under 45.5

UFC Special:

Jon “Bones” Jones wins by 5 round decision +240

Very hyped up fight between him and Cormier; watch it be boring as fuck.

Myles “Fury” Jury +130

He fights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone today, who I love as a fighter…probably one of the toughest, most professional guys in the UFC today.  The problem?  It’s his 5th fight in 6 mths (even though he’s gotten 3 first round KOs in those fights) and Jury is undefeated.  This one is more about the value of the pick, rather than an actual prediction of the fight (when in doubt in a 50/50 coin toss: take the odds).