Category: Basketball

NBA Playoffs Game 5 Leans 4.26

IND @ TOR UNDER 198

TEASER (5 pts):

BOS +7 & OVER 197

UFC 197

PARLAY @ -116:

Jon Jones -600
Mighty Mouse -400
Danny Roberts -400
Gennady Golovkin -10000 (Boxing)

Individual plays:

Danny Roberts -400

Dominique Steele looked like absolute dogshit yesterday at the weigh-ins and he immediately took off all his clothes to try as best as possible to make the 170 weight (he came in at 171 and made weight). It is usually very hard to come back from dehydration like that at welterweight and higher.

Rafael Natal +245

It’s not that I don’t think he’s an underdog to Whittaker, he is…..Whittaker is one of the better prospects in the UFC today. I just think the math on the line is wrong as Natal is a very dangerous opponent with excellent jiu jitsu. This should be at +150 or somewhere around there.

If you are thinking about taking OSP tonight, make sure you take the “inside distance” and “win in the 1st round” props. The only way he has a chance to win is in the 1st round as Jon could have some early ring rust and OSP tends to gas out after the first round as he throws everything with power (he does has several first round KOs for this reason). I think Jones wins in Round 2 or 3 by ground and pound.

NBA BONUS:

TOR @ IND Under 194

NBA Unders are hitting at a 65% clip so far this postseason.

Miami +2.5

Heat are just a bad matchup for Charlotte.

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Celtics Playoffs

The Celtics have made it into the East as a 5th seed. I would of preferred 3/6, so they avoid the Cavs in the second round…..but I think they eventually face them anyways as they are the two top teams in the East. Toronto is talented but soft defensively, and get a tough draw in the 1st round vs Indiana. Miami is wildly erratic (as evident by blowing a 26 point lead in the 2nd half to the Celtics in the season finale and only scoring 5 fucking points in the 3rd quarter).

I am taking the Celtics series price at +140 vs the Hawks in the 1st Round. The Hawks have no real home field advantage as I am sure half of their home games will be filled with Celtics fans (especially on the weekend games). The Hawks also have this going against them:

I am a big believer of the referees being influenced by stuff like this, and add the conspiratory angle that the NBA would want a Boston vs Cleveland 2nd round for the ratings, I think the Celtics have many edges here.

I am also taking a small flyer on Celtics to win the East at +1600, and the Celtics/Warriors final at +3300. The Cavs are the favorite to win the East (-260), but I think the Celtics are the other team to come out, if anyone else does.

UFC BONUS:

Dodson v Gamburyan Fight Goes the Distance +100
Court McGee +140
Evans vs Teixeira Over Rounds 3.5 -140

UFC Croatia

Rothwell +105

Junior Dos Santos should have retired 2 fights ago, and for Rothwell, this is a big fight for him today. He’s on a “last gasp” effort in a long career to gain a shot for a title. He’s has finishes in his last 4 fights.

NBA BONUS:

San Antonio -5.5

NCAA Title Monday

The madness is over and I am sad, did pretty good this year. Gonna ride UNC tonight -2,5 (-105). Villanova is a fun, good team…..I just think UNC has too much depth and talent and rebounding. Plus this could be Roy Williams’ last game.

Politics BONUS:

Sanders -300 to win WI (this is now at -800 at some books…he is crushing polls in WI).

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Degen Saturday 4.2

NCAA:

Syracuse +9 (-105)

NHL:

Arizona +135 ML

GS Warriors thoughts

As I noted back in November, I took the Warriors at +310 to win 73 games and beat the 95-96 Chicago Bulls best regular season record of 72 wins. As it currently stands, Golden State needs to win 5 out of its last 7 games to pull off this feat. Which leads to lots of fun hedging opportunities.

There are only 4 games I can potentially see them losing:

vs Celtics (which is tonight)
vs Blazers
at Spurs
vs Spurs

The Blazers are a competent team and Lillard is one of the best PGs in the league. But the game is in GSW where they (and San Antonio) are undefeated at home. Which is nuts, considering only 2 teams in NBA history have gone 40-1 at home (the 86 Celtics and the 96 Bulls), never mind undefeated. The line on both GSW and San Antonio going undefeated at home for the rest of the season (regular season and playoffs) is +700, for those wondering.

One hedge I am taking tonight is the Celtics. They have Jae Crowder back, the best coach in the league, and a team which can score against the Warriors. They have lost 4 in a row to the Warriors, but each time doing so by 5 points or less. They covered when (Klay Thompson-less) GSW came to Boston, losing in double overtime. I expect this game to be super competitive and believe the Celtics will cover the 12.5 points (-115). I am also using some of my hedge cash to put the line in a teaser with the over at 222, as well as the +820 money line. This will be a fun game tonight and it’s one of the few times I’ll recommend watching a regular season NBA game all year.

The other two potential losses on the GSW schedule are vs the San Antonio Spurs, who are having an awesome season which has gone under the radar with GSW’s success (which Greg Popovich must love as he subscribes to the Bill Belichick School of Media Attention). The Spurs are 5 games behind GSW for home court throughout the playoffs….so barring a GSW mini losing streak (neither team has lost back-to-back games all year…no team has ever done that in NBA history, and this year *2* may do so!!!!111), there’s no reason for Popovich, known to rest his starters, history or whatever else be damned, to come out “balls out” vs the Warriors in those two games. They already beat the Warriors at home earlier in 2016. But will he actually play his guys to try and beat GSW to thwart history, a la the NY Giants tried to do at home vs the NE Patriots in 2007 in week 17? Time will tell (and we’ll certainly be reading the beat writers in SA to find out on gameday just how he proceeds).

BOXING BONUS: Adrien Broner vs Ashley Theophane Over 8.5 Rounds -320

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NCAA Under Friday

UVA v Iowa St under 140 (-105)

Wisconsin v ND Under 132 (-115)

NCAA Sunday

Iowa +6.5

Mid TN State +6

ND -1

NCAA Saturday

UConn +8

UVA/Butler Under 131

TEASER: Duke -6.5 and Arkansas Little Rock +6.5

NBA Special: Golden State +3 (they have been an underdog twice this year, and are 2-0 ATS).

UFC BONUS: Mark Hunt -140