College FB Stuff
There are some teams to focus on throughout this year.
The Good – OK St (9), Auburn (8.5), Miami FL(9)
The Interesting – ASU (5), Kansas (3), Mich St (6.5), Miss St (5.5), Nebraska (7), Ole Miss (5.5), Oregon St (5.5)
Notice I am posting this after the season has already started for a few teams. I am getting these numbers from a website entitled “Last Minute College Football Team Wins.” This is me screaming at a bunch of horses starting out from the gate “WAIT! COME BACK! DO ANY OF YOU HAVE MEDICAL CONDITIONS?!?!”
The offenses for Oklahoma St and Auburn should be very good. Auburn has Baylor transfer Stidham who many believe will be the difference maker to put Auburn back in the SEC Champ conversation. Miami allowed just 18.5 points per game last season, and they may well be better in 2017…all 8 defenders who recorded at least six TFL and two sacks last season return. Just one bet from this group. Miami FL (over 9)
Did you know there is one team in college football that has had the worst passing D in the country two years in a row? ASU should be in for a lot of shoot-outs, former 5Star QB Blake Barnett transfers in. We are too late to bet on them but a 3 or 4 win season sounds believable, and we will bet accordingly ATS, lot of high scoring, non-covers like last night’s game. I am sure things have improved since, but as of mid May ASU had ZERO recruit commitments for 2018. This looks like a program with a bad trajectory. Speaking of bad trajectories, everybody is getting arrested and/or suspended at Mich St. We will take Mich St (under 6.5)
Kansas @ 3 is insanely tempting. Great DLine stuff, their new OC was co-OC @ TCU during their renaissance. But I think ultimately we are just going to bet them on specific match-ups. They lose a ton of talent in secondary. Bill Connelly notes “massive turnover in the secondary is the strongest predictor of defensive regression.” Nevertheless expect to see Kansas as a pick frequently ATS.
One of the horses I was screaming at is Oregon St, too late to do anything with them but expect them to get better as the year goes on. The “upstart Beavers suddenly have depth at multiple positions” as RotoWorld points out. They lost a bunch of close coin flip games last year, RB Nall could be a beast this year. We will have bets with them moving forward.
Not much insight into Nebraska except they seem quite thin @ WR. This was before Keyshawn Jr was busted for weed. They had a very late decommit who wound up going to Wash St. They also lose a very good, experienced corner Chris Jones due to surgery. Nebraska (under 7)
Who the Hell knows what Ole Miss will do. Shea Patterson should put up great numbers and I would lean towards their over, similar situation with Miss St. Everything you read is positive. New DC is a guy with consistent top20 Defenses in the past when @ Louisville and UGA. A quote regarding their LB Green, “(Green) won’t just take a starting role because of his age, he’s earning it with his play.” Good stuff. Miss St (over 5.5)