Week 14 NFL Plays
Seahawks at Packers Over 46.5
It’s going to be cold in Green Bay on Sunday, but I expect points to be scored in this one as both teams lost big defensive players to injury (SS Earl Thomas for the Seahawks; LB Nick Perry for Packers). RB Thomas Rawls comes back for the Seahawks vs the Packers’ milquetoast run defense. These games are always competitive and back and forth. One of the great slate of games for this week.
Miami -1 (-105)
The Arizona Cardinals make a cross country trip for a 1 o’clock game vs a team who plays in hot weather that got their ass kicked last week. The Cardinals are one of my “Teams Already Packed Up for the Holidays” and will most likely be partying the night before at the various wonderful establishments on South Beach. SS Tyrann Mathieu is out for Arizona. Miami is still in the WC hunt and needs a win, and I expect one here.
Washington -1 (-105)
The Eagles’ young team has been reeling the last few weeks as their lack of depth is now catching up to them. Washington gets super route runner TE Jordan Reed back for this game, and I expect a rebound for Kirk Cousins and company.
Houston +6.5 (-110)
I hate taking this shitty Texans team on the road, but in this shitty AFC South division vs a shitty Colts team where it’s a must win for both of these shitty teams, I expect a low scoring, close, shitty game.
Browns ML +290 and TEASER: Browns +12.5 and Under 43.5
As we talked about on the Miracle Covers podcast a few weeks ago, the Browns win in their schedule comes against the lowly Bengals…and we said this BEFORE they lost WR A.J. Green and RB Geo Bernard. The Browns get Robert Griffin III back (I dunno if that’s good or bad) but they are coming off a bye (in Week 13?) and it either this game, or when the Chargers come into Cleveland in a few weeks, that is the *win* in this season. The Browns are not the 2008 Detroit Lions, IMO the worst team of all time. They are a bad team, but they aren’t *that* bad; at least they have some talent like WR Pryor Sr, LB Jamie Collins, RB Isiah Crowell, etc. It’s also going to be snowing Sunday in Cleveland, so I am going to put the Browns line (+6.5) in a teaser with the under as well. Disclosure: I may have a gambling problem.
GB/SEA Over 46.5
Marc Diakiese vs Frankie Perez Under 1.5 Rounds +145
Max Holloway -200
Pettis missed weight today by 3 lbs this morning. Holloway is the best 145 lb guy in the division now that McGregor has moved up in weight. I’ll pay the juice and Holloway gets the belt here, IMO vs Pettis who is 1-3 in his last 4 fights.
Army vs Navy Under 47
The Under in this game has hit 10 out of the last 11. Also, a good tip: its +EV to take a under in an Armed Forces college derby, as these teams play for the “Commander’s Cup” each time, as well as the fact that Armed Forces team usually have run-heavy option attacks due to recruiting issues.