AFC and NFC Super Bowl 50 Odds Talk

Posted in Hockey, NFL - 2016/01/06 - 0 Comment

Wild Card week! What a fun time of year…..and I’ve never seen 4 games so up in the air than this year for this week. Not one lock I can see, although there has been some heavy public action on some teams. We even have a pick ’em!

Onto the Conference Odds…..some of my favorite talk of the year (and most profitable – I’ve had good years taking both Seattle in 2013 and 2014 to win the Super Bowl once they locked up homefield).

AFC:

Denver is the #1 seed and they are not even the favorites to win the conference. I don’t think I have ever seen that before, and it’s because there are so many questions with the Broncos. Peyton Manning’s Week 17 “comeback” vs the Chargers now cements him in for the starting QB slot. Say if the weather is bad, or the defense which has had some key injuries in the last few weeks…..and Peyton doesn’t start out so hot, does Kubiak go to Osweiler? How does the team’s mood change with this? Do the HGH allegations vs Manning motivate the team? Do Phil Simms and Phil Nantz continue to openly wank it on air when they call the game in Denver in two weeks? Did Manning really have a foot injury and this is all a rouge to get Peyton off of a HGH cycle for a playoff run? That’s a lot of “ifs” going into the playoffs for me to be behind the Broncos.

Cincy is talented but the Dalton injury (and the fact they are coached by Marvin Lewis) takes them out of the equation. Ditto with the Steelers and LeVeon Bell (and the fact they are coached by Mike Tomlin). Houston is the “happy to be there” team.

Kansas City has won 10 straight and no one is really talking about them. Maybe that’s because their QB is Alex Smith and their coach is Andy Reid and we’ve all seen this story before. That being said, their defense is playing the best out of anyone in the NFL coming into the tournament and they get back Justin Houston from injury. But they most likely will have to play all 3 games on the road and I don’t think they have enough on offense, especially after the Maclin injury last week. But if you are looking for a “long shot” team, they might be the one you would pick just because of their defense. Wait, what am I saying…they are being coached by Andy Reid and it will eventually end up in a ball of flames like it always does.

The Pats not getting the #1 seed was shocking, quite frankly. The “4 Corners” offense they played with starters in Miami was embarrassing as they started the game with 18 straight plays to running backs. It’s not a good sign when the first time Brady threw vs Miami, Marcus Cannon throws Suh into Brady’s knees causing him to now have a high ankle sprain, which could effect his throwing accuracy. An AFC Championship game in Denver, as a Pats fan, scares me because Brady and Belichick are 3-7 lifetime there and always seem to get jobbed by the referees like a WWE PPV whenever they play there. If the Pats do lose in Denver, Belichick’s decision to set the Philadelphia game on fire earlier in December will be the reason why. The O-Line is a worry….but the key is Julian Edleman’s health. He is what gets the offense moving even against top flight defenses, and the last few weeks have shown that the Patriots do not have much WR depth. Gronk gets less double teams, Brady gets easier pre-snap reads and he is now the guy on 3rd down, especially with the injury to Dion Lewis. He’s also their best punt returner. If you short the Patriots, Edleman’s health would be one reason to do so, as the Patriots offense needs him healthy and effective for any chance for New England to fingerbang their way to Super Bowl 50. The Patriots are my selection to go through at +200, as in the end, the NFL is a league of quarterbacks and the Patriots have the best one.

NFC:

I saw maybe 3 or 4 articles today saying that Seattle is the Wild Card team. The same team that scored 10 points at home vs the Rams 2 weeks ago. Yes, Doug Baldwin is on a heater but their defense has looked suspect at times and Thomas Rawls is injured meaning that their backfield next week will be a hobbled Marshawn “Old Groin” Lynch coming off injury, Bryce “Fantasy Sleeper Bust” Brown, and Christian “Two First Names and 4 Different Teams” Michael. Add that their game in Minnesota will be played in 0 degree temps, which might effect them even if they do win into the later rounds, I am very bearish on Seattle.

Green Bay’s WR can’t beat man coverage and their O-Line is injury ridden. Eddie Lacy decided to eat all of Wisconsin’s cheese. Aaron Rodgers has played crappy the last few games and Mike McCarthy’s sad mug on the sidelines looks like a guy at the bar who just lost his whole bankroll after playing 3 hours at the blackjack table. They need considerable personnel improvements at a good number of positions to be considered a contender for next year, in my own opinion.

Minnesota I think will be an annual NFC player down the road thanks to the coaching of Mike Zimmer. They were the best team against the spread this year at 13-3. But the NFL is a QB league; is Teddy Bridgewater good enough to throw for 300+ yards if the Vikings require that type of quality from the position? I say not yet. But it’s been a good season with good young players with Barr and Diggs and if they keep drafting like that, they could be a Super Bowl contender sooner rather than later.

Washington is interesting; “Kirk Cousins has made people millions in fantasy football” can be filed under “things I thought I would never say in 2015”. Jordan Reed is healthy and I’ve always thought when he is, that as a TE he is the closest comparison to Aaron Hernandez we’ve seen(minus the blocking ability….and the fact Hernandez also killed people). Their weaknesses are their defense and lack of running game, which I think creates a bad matchup for them deep into the tournament vs Arizona or Carolina.

Carolina has had a great year, only losing one game. They have the best LB core in football, and the best “in form” CB in Josh Norman. Cam Newton should be the MVP, and he’s done so with WRs like Ted Ginn and Jericho Cotchery. It’s like Madden 2006 all over again. But my issue with Carolina is three fold:

a) Can Cam Newton step up and win the big game NOW with this WR core? What happens if Greg Olsen goes down? He’s the MVP and talented…but until a QB can prove he can win, it’s always a question that needs to be asked.
b) The health of Jonathan Stewart. In any zone read style of offense, the RB quality is just an important as the ability of the QB to be a threat on the perimeter (as well as on play action). If it’s Cameron Artis-Payne, defenses will be more willing to cater to defenses that “sugar rush” Newton and keep him in the pocket and throw the ball more. Carolina needs a good balance because against playoffs defenses, that WR core I don;t think is good enough to win the game on their own.
c) Pass Rush. DL depth has been an issue for Carolina all year, and they have had numerous injuries to the position. It’s why they traded for Jared Allen’s old ass. And it’s also why they gave up big plays in December when things got tighter.

Them now not being able to go for 19-0 is a reason to be bullish on Carolina as that human pressure (which clearly effected the 2007 Patriots on their run) won’t be there…but I just think Carolina is this year’s “Team that overachieved because of a crappy schedule”.

Arizona is my choice for the NFC at +210. They have the best coaching in Arians, the best special teams, the best WR core, and the play of David Johnson has elevated their offense to the next level. The only outlier is Carson Palmer he’s always one hit away from disaster, which is something to think about if you are bearish on the Cards.

Stay tuned here later in the week as I try to go for my “Pursuit of Gambling Perfection” against the NFL Playoff lines as well as my “Champion of Champions” Yahoo DFS lineup I have for the weekend.

NHL BONUS: Pittsburgh Penguins +115