Month: May 2013
MLB End of May
Last post of the month and we are 12-12 for May so tonight will determine if we only win at life, or if we win at baseball too. 12-12 +0.88 for May for those keeping track. We won our under last night as most of the scoring happened late but stopped at 7 runs on our U7.5. Only one play today and that is in Minnesota where we are taking Pelfrey +113 at home to the Mariners and Iwakuma.
No soccer plays in a blah weekend. It’s only MLS and the odd International until August. Likely away tomorrow & hungover on Sunday so there may not be much action until next week.
Good luck out there.
MLB Plays 5/30
I am pretty sure I have stumbled upon my baseball Raiders. For some reason, I have an unhealthy obsession with picking the Oakland Raiders. It seems that the baseball equivalent for me, at least this year, are the Miami Marlins. All plays @ 24.
Brewers @ Twins Under 8.5 -108
Rays @ Marlins (+1.5) -119
A’s @ Giants Over 7.5 +101
Thursday
A mediocre May is coming to an end here with one total and no sides likely today. Updates later per usual.
The Kansas City Royals, who Pat and I both have down for Over 77.5, have lost 8 in a row and have hit two home runs as a team since May 15th. Cubs pitchers have hit three home runs during this timeframe, which is kind of like having Manchester United’s goalkeepers outscore QPR over a month. Joe Posnanski has more on this somewhat historic ineptitude.
World Cup qualifiers coming up next week after this slate of useless friendlies and last round of games in La Liga.
UPDATE 1: Make it Cubs pitchers 4 Royals 2. Travis Wood with the Grand Slam.
UPDATE 2: Marlins/Rays Under 7.5 -105 Nolasco v. Colome
MLB Plays 5/28
Quick 2 early plays. Definitely more to follow, @ 24
Braves ML +106 @ Blue Jays
Braves @ Blue Jays Under 9 -111
UPDATE
Pirates (+1.5) -150 @ Tigers
O’s ML -101 @ Nats
Twins ML +111 @ Brewers
Phillies ML +111 @ Red Sox
Marlins (+1.5) -102 @ Rays
My ongoing love affair with road teams lives on. Road teams and I should be locked in an embrace at the front of the Titanic. I think the problem for me is that in football I can quantify home field advantage. Will have to learn that in baseball at some point.
MLB Plays Memorial Day
I am at a crossroads whether to go for MLs or run lines on bets these days. As you will see there is a mixture of both in these picks. Lets see if this is the first step towards formulating a strategy. All @ 24, essentially broke even yesterday
Cardinals @ Royals (+1.5) -159
Rockies @ Astros Under 8.5 -101
Twins (+1.5) -176 @ Brewers
Padres (+1.5) -193 @ Mariners
Angels @ Dodgers ML +102
Cubs @ White Sox Under 7.5 -113
MLB Plays 5/26
Another positive day yesterday. 3 consecutive days with plus results. Louis is going to be at his annual Memorial Day barbecue event so I have the place largely to myself. Excuse me as I make myself comfortable. Ohhhhyeah. Let’s just rid of those pants, stretch it out a bit. For whatever reason I am on an Over/Under total jag right now. All @ 24
Cubs @ Reds Under 7.5 -123
Angels @ Royals Under 9.5 -128
Rangers @ Mariners Over 7 -112
Cardinals @ Dodgers Under 6.5 -126
O’s @ Blue Jays +1.5 -148
Cardinals/Dodgers has the potential of a pretty amazing pitcher’s duel. Couldn’t you see something like 3-1 either way? Interesting to see how Iwakuma responds after his first bad outing of the year.
5/25 MLB Plays
Lot of Over/Unders today. Not how I meant it but that’s the way it is. Decent day yesterday with some underdogs hitting for us. All @ 24.
Phillies @ Nationals Over 7.5 +101
Braves @ Mets Over 7.5 -103
Marlins (+1.5) -122 @ White Sox
Pirates ML +116 @ Brewers
Cardinals ML -102 @ Dodgers
Cardinals @ Dodgers Over 7.5 -117
Friday
Nothing to report yesterday as we had no plays on a light schedule. Lots of leans today but it’s later in the afternoon and we only have one confirmed play so far which is Seattle at home with Saunders +102 hosting Texas (Grimm). Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Jays and Red Sox look to be the remainder of today’s options.
Most likely taking the early part of next week off, so Pat will have the place to himself for a few days. Soccer is looking like a bust for the weekend as I can’t get anything I like for close to the Pinnacle lines. Espanyol to draw or win versus Barcelona is the primary hope for a play this weekend.
SATURDAY EDIT: Mariners lost last night. One play today: Bravos (Minor) @ Mets (Gee) +140
MLS Toronto No Draw +200
MLB Plays 5/24
First day we had not lost money in quite some time yesterday. Lets keep the positives moving forward. Looottttttttttss of games, all @ 24
Indians ML +106 @ Red Sox
Indians @ Red Sox Under 9 -102
Yankees ML +102 @ Rays
Pirates @ Brewers Over 7.5 -102
Marlins ML +159 @ White Sox
Rangers @ Mariners Over 8 -115
Rockies ML +140 @ Giants
The Phillies/Nationals game is off the board for some reason, I am guessing it has to do with these 2 teams probably having the highest ratio of star players who get consistently injured. The 2013 Yankees wish they produced the level of all-star injuries these teams churn out year after year. At any rate, I want the Nationals ML whatever it turns out to be. Also, Louis’ dream offensive match-up happens this week with White Sox v. Marlins. We will see if they hit some Unders.
UPDATE
Originally I had a Pirates ML play in there but I scrapped it. They ML on the Nats was definitively shitty so I resorted to the run line play…
Phillies @ Nationals (-1.5) +139
Do not mean to hate on the Phils but I am not a Kyle Kendrick fan and I believe he is just about to turn that sucky corner a few of us have been waiting on. We shall see.
Thirsty Thursday
The Cubs are hot on the heels of the Fire for worst offense in Chicago, having passed the White Sox in the standings last night in Pittsburgh. Four hits and zero runs were all the support offered to Samardjia, who was excellent and lost again. I need to remember that being nitty with the lines is sometimes a good thing as it saved a losing bet in this case. Francisco Liriano (yep, exactly who you think it is) got the win and is somehow 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three starts this season for the Pirates, who as mentioned last night are two games out of first place in the Central.
Only 5 games today in MLB, and Minnesota is the closest thing to a lean today and will most likely be a pass.
I was working on Power Rankings for MLS yesterday and realized when compiling just how much parity exists. Leagues without relegation, and that includes all American sports leagues, really do reward mediocrity. They are an extension of corporate America where turning up is the most important attribute. We have seen this up close with New England the last 7-8 years. Since they can’t be relegated, there is no reason to actively improve the team. And since as Jeff Maurer says, “The MLS playoffs are like Arizona State: You have to screw up really badly to not get in,” regular season games lack urgency as well. Throw in the fact that MLS plays right through international weeks where teams will be without their best players who are away on duty and it’s remarkably clear why EPL interest exponentially exceeds that of MLS.
The MLS lines this week are far too generous to some of these mediocre to poor teams who happen to be hosting teams of the same calibre. New England at home to Toronto is the most egregious but Colorado hosting Chivas at -160 is bad too. I really need to find another book to make any plays however as mine is around 20 points off Pinnacle on nearly everything. La Liga nonsense and any MLS plays to be posted Saturday.
