Month: October 2011
Game of the Year
The opening line on LSU/Alabama is ‘Bama -4.5. I made a somewhat vague promise to myself that if I was more than a point off in either direction on this line I would bet the game so it looks like I am taking LSU. Couple of boring points about the line…
- It is a night game which definitely adds some value to the home team (‘Bama)
- There are ongoing questions for LSU as to who exactly will be playing/suspended
- LSU’s QB situation cannot be considered fully locked-down
- Vegas is not run by idiots. They know an awful lot of casual sport fans will bet this line thinking, “how the hell do you make the #1 team in the nation more than a field goal ‘dog ever?” Knowing this, they have still made the line 4.5, something that definitely gives one pause
With all that said, I’ll be taking the points…
Pick : LSU +4.5
Gotta Win Game
Sometimes you bet a team simply because they are in a game they essentially have to win or their season is in the crapper. Last week this could be seen in the NFL in the Eagles/Redskins game where if Philly loses they go to 1-5 and for all intents and purposes they are done.
This week, we are going to say this situation exists in the Utah/Cal game. Both have similar records, the difference is that the Cal coach, Jeff Tedford, is on the hot seat. If Cal does not become bowl eligible this year (college speak for 6 wins, Lou), there is a definite chance he’ll be bounced. If you look at the Cal schedule, they pretty much have to win this one. So in a slight twist on the theme, this is a Career Must Win situation in addition to a Season Must Win.
Pick : Cal -3
Game of the Year
Nothing has happened over the last couple weeks to make me want to move the line we originally set on LSU, ALabama. Anything can happen in the SEC in the month before this game, but at this point I still like where we are. If this game was today Vegas might lean towards -3 on this, if LSU struggles AT ALL from here in we will too.
Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)
