Month: May 2011
When to Use Reverse Run Lines
A reverse (better known as alternate) run line is a bet that the listed underdog will or will not win the game by more than one run.
For example, tonight’s Pirates/Braves line is as follows:
Braves (Jurrjens) -120
Pirates (Morton) +113
The Run Line (or handicap or spread) is:
Braves -1.5 +146
Pirates +1.5 -158
Lastly, the Reverse (or Alternate) Run Line is:
Braves +1.5 -290
Pirates -1.5 +256
The two non-degenerate reasons for using the reverse run line are as follows:
1) Suspected (or known) injury to a starting pitcher
Phil Hughes is the classic and most recent example here. After all of the reports of Hughes’ velocity being down as well as being crushed by the Tigers in his first start, assuming you wanted to bet against Hughes in his next start, you may as well use the reverse run line (assuming the Yankees were still favored with him starting) as you can receive a much larger return. We are assuming here that an injured pitcher is much less likely to keep a game competitive and as such, the likelihood of a one-run game is diminished.
Of course, should you know for certain that said pitcher is injured and starting anyway (Hughes is probbably the closest one can get without legitimate inside knowledge) this is certainly the way to go.
A lesser version of this system would use this to bet against pitchers with inordinately high pitch counts in their previous start(s) again assuming those pitchers were still favored overall. There doesn’t seem to be much sense in laying lots of juice for a team to not lose by 2+ runs and in any case, there’s approximately zero money to be made betting on large favorites in MLB.
2) Overly favorable matchups
At the start of the year, Justin Masterson and Alexei Ogando for Cleveland and Texas respectively were considered good swingmen with established strengths and weaknesses that would likely get exposed as a regular starter. When given a particularly favorable matchup, pitchers such as these can be a good play sometimes as significant underdogs. This can also extend to pitchers back from injury, or recently called up from the minors. There’s little to no reason however, that making a game a play under the normal moneyline should by default extend to taking a game at a reverse run line instead.
Roughly 30% of MLB games are decided by one run so that’s the primary reason to not use these. Of those 30% of games, roughly 40% go to the underdog and 60% break to the favorite. Since there aren’t any of these that offer +1.5 +2xx, most people will be best served by leaving these alone minus the Hughes-like exceptions.
Reverse Run Lines – Baseball Bets
I’m looking to point out that pinnacle only has run lines up for favorites on their primary MLB Bet page. This was a little trippy fact for me to clue-in on as it highlights how sneaky odds can be. If you were making a list of People with Exceptional Observational Skills, I would not be among the leaders. Makes me feel a bit like
Me = the mouse
Pinnacle = scientist
Favorite run line = slightly moldy cheese stuck right in front of me
Alternate run line = better quality cheese placed off to the side behind the paper mache curtains?
This might not be entirely accurate, but it is interesting that not only are the alternate run lines not on the main MLB page, but at this moment, 9 EST, the alternate run lines are still not up yet. They are in the “Betting to Be Available Soon” section. Do lines like these require extra work to figure out, or does pinnacle hold off putting them up because they are much shakier business for The House? This seems like a question for Dr Lou so I’m going to see if we can get him on here to discuss this. While doing 34 seconds of research on this issue I came across an internet thread “Does anyone know of a reliable book where you can parlay alternate run lines in baseball?” I like where all of this is headed.
- 20 Units on Baltimore -1.5 +131
- 17 Units On Red Sox -135
- 19 Units on Tampa Bay +150
Only one winner yesterday. 946.97 is where things stand
UPDATED NOTES AND PICKS…As of 2 EST the Alternate Run Lines were up on pinnacle. I have enough time on my hands to keep up with this over the next few days and try to figure out when these lines usually go up and attempt to get a reason for the delay. You would think it would be pretty much a set formula once the run lines are established. And now essentially obligated to insert reverse run line picks tonight, we’ll go with…
- 15 Units on Seattle -1.5 +175
- 12 Units on NY Mets -1.5 +197
- 33 Units on Colorado +1.5 -308
- 9 Units on Tampa Bay -1.5 +249
Baseball Bets
This series of articles is growing decidedly boring. Something like this is really interesting if the picks end up being 90% right or 95% wrong, all I’m doing is slowly pissing away fake money. Dullllllllllll. I’ll try to get more imaginative or scrap this idea, but until then.
- 22 Units on Red Sox -118
- 17 Units on White Sox +142
- 14 Units on Mariners -102
-14.67 Net on my last series of picks bringing my total down to 972.24
Baseball Bets
Net of -6.33 last entry. Slowly but surely losing money to The House, just the way God intends it. Let’s go with…
- 20 Units on Mariners -120
- 16 Units on Mets +161
- 14 Units on A’s +137
Net of 986.91. All games must be completed, if the Rapture happens all bets are off.
Baseball Bets
Won with the Sox on the 16 Unit bet but lost on the other two for a net of -18.44 Units. Let’s see what is happening tonight…
- 18 Units on D-Backs/Padres under 9.5 -112
- 14 Units on Brewers/Dodgers under 7 -120
All for now, may try to sneak in a few more before first pitches…
Current Unit Count 993.24
Baseball Bets
Realized a while back that the Tag Line on this site is “Winning at Sports.” Sheen owes us some royalties. On 11/27/09 (older entries), VT had recommended we change the name of the site to “Losing at Sports” during a cold streak for Louis. I can’t believe we missed the obvious that we could have changed the site name to “Lousing at Sports.”
Won with SF a few nights ago. 16 Unit bet on -137 kicks us off to 1011.68. Today we will go…
- 18 Units on Twins +114
- 16 Units on Red Sox -118
- 14 Units on Rangers/Angels under 8.5 -113
Current Unit Count 1011.68
1,000 Unit Baseball
Coming up on a quarter way through the baseball season. Starting off with 1,000 units. I can make any baseball bet I come across on pinnacle; run line, over/under, prop…whatever. Let’s see what happens. Today we will do…
- 16 units San Fran -137 money line
