Miracle Covers

XFL Week 4

0-2 last week on single bets, but we hit the teaser, 6-2 so far this year.

NY Guardians +8

TEASER +160:
NY +8
HOU at DAL OVER 50
NY vs LA OVER 39

XFL Week 3

5-0 with HU bets so far in XFL, 5-0-1 total including the teaser than failed last week because Matt McGloin sucks ass.

Here are my assessments of each team so far, from best to worst:

DC Defenders: The league’s biggest and most physical team, including at QB with Cardale Jones. They also have the best overall defense. Pep Hamilton seems to grasp what the league is about: setting up 3rd and 4th and manageables, and establishing deep PA off that. The most complete team, and the favorite, IMO.

Houston Roughnecks: Led by June Jones, so you know they throw the ball a ton and their offense has been the best in the first 2 weeks. They have the best QB so far in Temple’s PJ Walker, and a WR core led by former Clemson stand out Sammie Coates and XFL Snow Leopard All Star Nick Holley. They are OK on defense, but they can rush the passer. Will be interesting to see how they do on the road this week, especially since their QB is also their best RB.

St Louis BattleHawks: The best running team and defensive secondary. Their problem is they have a hard time throwing the ball downfield, and so when they get behind in games, they tend to struggle (like last week keeping up with the explosive Houston offense).

Dallas Renegades: QB Landry Jones is back healthy and he threw for 350+ last week…but their defense is below average. They’ve tallied four sacks on the year and have yet to record an interception. Making 4th-and-outs is critical in XFL due to the touchback rules, and until they get more turnovers, they will continue to struggle.

New York Guardians: They have the best red zone defense, but their below average offense is a lot to be desired. Another team that struggles if they don’t get an early lead in games; it’s painful watching Matt McGloin throw the ball downfield. Their offensive line, especially the tackles, also blow. But 80% of the teams in the XFL are like this, and a la AAF, QB injuries will result so this is why (along with the 25 second play clock), the league tends to gear towards running QBs who can create time on their own (and that’s *not* Matt McGloin).

LA Wildcats: They have had a revolving door at QB with a bunch of guys I haven’t heard of. They fired their defensive coordinator Pepper Johnson after week one. Their coach, former Green Bay Packers’ LB coach Winston Moss, seems to have a hard time understanding the game theory rules of the XFL (like when their QB had to call a timeout to yell at him that they should go for it down 10 on 4th and 4 from the 39. They did and, of course, missed it).

Seattle Dragons: The league’s smallest team, although their WRs aren’t too shabby, led by former Navy standout Keenan Reynolds and Ricky’s Prohl’s son, Austin. They have issues stopping the run but they do create turnovers. Their homefield is probably the best as they play at the Seahawks’ CenturyLink Field. They will get points every week so I’d take a look at them to cover weekly, especially at home. They were projected to be the league’s worst team… but I don’t think they are *that* bad.

Tampa Bay Vipers: The league’s worst team led by Marc Tresman, whose offense can be painful to watch. Another team who can’t figure out who the QB is; Georgia’s Aaron Murray throwing balls in the dirt on screen passes like he’s a fuckin’ cricketer. They commit a lot of penalties, have scored 12 points in two games, and have yet to score an offensive touchdown. The defense is OK, though.

80% of the UNDERS have hit in XFL so far, despite the rules meant to have high scoring games: this is what happens with Triple A football players don’t have official preseason. The scoring might go up as the season progresses however as teams settle in.

Here are my plays this week:

DC Defenders at LA UNDER 44 -115
Dallas @ Seattle OVER 42
TEASER +160: Houston -6.5, HOU at TB OVER 45, NY at STL UNDER 40

XFL Week 2

2-0 last week; will have a more in depth write up after 2 weeks of play next week:

NY at DC UNDER 46.5 (-110)

TEASER +120: NY +7, SEA +1.5, and NY/DC UNDER 46.5