Friday
Posting on time and with the correct day today. No plays yesterday or today but we do have a lean on Toronto +145 at Philadelphia. I’ve added an exclusion for teams on long losing streaks to avoid having plays on the hockey equivalent of the Astros popping up over and over again. Toronto has lost 6 straight heading into tonight and they’re legitimate losses not the OT or shootout variety. They’ve also conceded 3+ every game as well. So they are in the leaner column along with Nashville who is on a back to back. Hopefully we will get a real play in this weekend.
Thursday
Late post today as our NHL season comes to a slow and inconsequential end. No plays again tonight despite a full slate of games. Vancouver who won yesterday and is officially now a garden variety below average team is the best option tonight but rejected for our purposes since they are on a back to back. Hopefully we can find a game to play this week. Enjoy the NCAA action.
Wednesday
Nothing doing again tonight with only three NHL games to choose from and the end of the season rapidly approaching. Lots of back to backs to end the year as well further reducing our options in most cases (If both teams played the night before it’s a wash). Vancouver is the best game of the three though it is a marginal lean at best. I will make sure to track leans next to my plays next season. Win totals for baseball also coming soon though sides and totals won’t be available until early May.
Tuesday
It’s pretty clear that you’re running poorly when marginal plays that are passed turn into winners while the ostensibly “better” plays are consistently losing. Sean is living in that world at the moment as the Jets were much further away from winning than their 2-1 loss would suggest. Keri Lehtonen was excellent in goal for Dallas. Montreal and Ottawa were both shootout winners, the latter ending a 7 or 8 game losing streak.
Nothing doing today despite a full slate of games. Detroit is the closest thing to a play. I have my NL-only Superdork draft tomorrow night and will post a link if possible if anyone wants to follow along.
How to turn $1 into $869
So, been a pretty bad week for me sports gambling the last week: I batted 0.233 in my NCAA bets, my brackets are cooked, and I missed all but 2 of my suggestions on this blog for NCAA this week. Thank god for poker lately, as I have been running hot.
However, amazing feat last night for the UFC Card in Brazil: Shogun vs Henderson 2.
I was playing some MTTs late last night and was going to watch the event while pokering. If you have followed my UFC bets here on the site, I’ve done very well with a 62% ROI on UFC bets YTD, including killing it on these Brazil cards since I always look for good odds for fighters FROM BRAZIL fighting guys who are NOT. Especially when they are underdogs…..they just fight jacked up and put on a great show for the home crowd.
I liked two fighters on the card: Fabio Maldonado +230 (a boxer with a granite chin) and Thiago “Marreta” Santos +525. For the Santos fight: not only had I not heard of the guy he was fighting (Ronny Markes….and I follow MMA pretty closely), the guy also missed weight by 5 FUCKING POUNDS. I’ll take the +525 (Thiago Santos beat him in the first round with a liver kick to the stomach).
I also did something fun: I parlayed 4 dogs in a $1 parlay that would pay out $188.24:
Thiago “Marreta” Santos +525
Fabio Maldonado +230
Michel “Trator” Richard Cunha Dos Prazeres +260 (his opponent grabbed the cage *4* times during the fight, resulting in 3 points taken away. I’ve never seen that before, even in WWF steel cage matches)
Leonardo Santos +230
Well wouldn’t you know it, the first 3 hit! So we had a great hedging opportunity with the last fight with Leo Santos, a Brazilian JiuJitsu Blackbelt who is the sensei for champions Henan Barao and Jose Aldo, versus Norman Parke, a Judo Olympic Team Member from Northern Ireland.
Parke was a -335 favorite (this encompasses ALL results, like No Contests), so I betted around that since we had around $80-$100 in hedging cash and -335 was too high to bet on the fight alone.
I took:
Parke to win via decision -150
Parke via KO (kick or punch standing) +400
Parke Inside Distance (submission/ground n’ pound TKO) +250
AND $10 on the draw at +7500
The fight itself, was awful. A grappler vs judo guy usually is a good stylistic matchup, but these guys just canceled each other out.
Parke was strong enough to hold Santos against the cage (therefore taking him away from his ground game with BJJ and establish octagon control), but didn’t have enough power in his fists to make significant damage to impress the judges or KO Santos.
Santos is very green striking and you can tell; but his wrestling defense (sprawl) is very good.
The referee was also awful, giving Parke a 1 point deduction for grabbing the shorts during a takedown in the second round (its usually just a warning, even if you pull the guys’ pants down). This was the type of fight that tilts the fuck out of Dana White, especially since it was 3rd to last fight and the card up to then was one of the best I’ve seen in the history of the promotion as 90% of the fights ended in a KO.
And wouldn’t you know it, the judges scored it 29-28 Santos, and 28-28 and 28-28, shipping us the draw! On top of that, and I didn’t even know this: for 2/3rds of the bets I made on this site, since the match ended as a draw in MMA, I also chopped that cash too! And it was….a miracle cover!
The amazing thing about this UFC card, sans this draw: EVERY SINGLE UNDERDOG WON. I think if you parlayed all of the dogs on the card that night, it probably would of been 100,000-to-1. The type of shit that keeps a bookie up at night.
I now have some more money to set on fire at the WSOP in the summer, and I also now will take Winnipeg +150 tonight on the road. #whynot
Monday
Forgive me I am late posting today. One NHL play tonight it’s Winnipeg +150 @ Dallas. Ottawa and Montreal for sadists, action junkies and the like. 28-22 +15.91 for the season.
Sunday Brunch Bets
NCAA:
Mercer +8 vs Tenn
Team full of seniors, high FG percentage, and Nancy Grace is an alumnus. Count me in!
NHL:
St.Louis v PIT Over 5.5 (+105)
St Louis clinched a playoff spot last night, so you *know* they were out drinking last night. Pittsburgh has scored 13 goals in its last 4 games. It’s a 1pm start and they might break the over themselves.
Saturday
Nothing doing yesterday, Tampa and Calgary are the best options today. Tampa is at Pittsburgh here in 30 minutes or so. I am passing but feel free to play. Calgary is at Edmonton late tonight so it’s far to early to pass or play that for now. Also Ottawa for those needing more action. Updates when necessary. Good luck today.
Friday
Split on hockey yesterday with both games being coinflips and finishing 3-2. Columbus was a bit better than that as they should have had the game wrapped up early but same/same nonetheless. Philly was a winner as well so good job Pat. Nothing doing today though there might be some NBA later. I say that a lot and it usually doesn’t amount to anything but three games popped up today so maybe I will get some action down or just pick NCAA games tonight at random.
