Friday
We were all winners yesterday as Columbus shutout Philadelphia 2-0. I am really, really, really hoping Columbus gets drawn against Pittsburgh in the playoffs as that would give us a chance to repeat our Montreal/Washington heroics from a few years back. They’ll probably get Boston though who is much more suited to a long playoff run. 5-3 +3.58 on Columbus alone this season.
Mets, Jays and Astros are on the MLB shortlist as well as the away teams late in NHL, Nashville and Edmonton. Nothing confirmed yet so it may be an empty day. Edmonton is interesting as they are in Phoenix who have suddenly been awful and unable to score. Edmonton is just awful all around so it may be a decent gamble. Not sure if it will come to pass, but I’m always happy to encourage others to try :)
Lastly, the White Sox are currently in action and Tyler Flowers, White Sox catcher and career .206 hitter, is 2 for 2 so far following his 4 for 4 performance yesterday against the Twins. The Twins had a rare performance of their own yesterday with Worcester Tornado alum Chris Colabello getting 6 RBIs.
Updates if at all to be posted before gametime.
UPDATE: Some NBA! Wizards +5
UPDATE2: Nashville for +165
Thursday
Mets were a loser last night by a combination of scoring only 1 run and Bartolo Colon giving up a HR to the opposing pitcher with two strikes in the 5th. No day game action but we have a possible play on the Astros again who are going for the sweep against the Yankees. One hockey play tonight on our favorite team, Columbus +128.
MLB Plays 4/3
I outdid myself yesterday in my Over bet for Braves/Brewers. Yada, yada, yada, teams combined for 1 run. Yada, yada, yada, there were dueling no-hitters going in the 7th. Frankly, I’m not impressed. The Brewers couldn’t even have only given up an unearned run? I mean, that’s how you really stick it to an Over bettor. Go a combined 18 half innings and score when someone drops a pop-up. I mean, Hell, someone hit a home run in the game. That should count as an Over right there.
Washington Nationals @ NY Mets +1.5 -124 @ 14
MTD : 0.00
***UPDATE***
Mets got smacked around in the later innings today so our early play was a loser. Taking the under in Blue Jays/Rays. No Myers tonight and hopefully Archer is in a positive mood off his new contract. This bet probably hinges on Morrow not exploding on the mound.
Blue Jays / Rays Under 8 -110 @ 14
MTD : -14
Wednesday
Our single play yesterday was a winner as the Astros cruised in a 6-2 win. Houston is on the lean list today along one actual play and that is the Mets (Colon) +116. No hockey because back-to-backs ruin everything.
One random baseball thought to share today and it’s on the Cubs opening day lineup which was just filled with replacement level dreck. It looks much better against a righty tonight (though still not good). Something to be monitored the first few weeks especially before the inevitable callups begin that should improve things.
MLB Play(s) 4/2
Harang himself could possibly give up this Over. Garza pitched horrifically during Spring Training.
Braves @ Brewers Over 8.5 +108 @ 10
MTD : +10.00
MLB Play 4/1
Erasmo Ramirez is my boy. I had to unfortunately jettison him from my AL Keeper League at a good price. Let’s show him some love.
Mariners +1.5 -140 @ 14
MTD : 0.00
Tuesday
It was a rough Monday in both sports as all of our plays and potential plays were close losers. In baseball, our lean on the Mets and play on the Diamondbacks both lost as closers Parnell and Reed both blew saves. Hockey was not any better as Carolina lost in a shootout. Winnipeg turned into the most borderline of plays that I didn’t stick around to check on at 10 local time. It would have been a good play/poor result as Winnipeg got up to a 4-0 lead in the 2nd before setting the game on fire and losing in OT 5-4
No day baseball so everything is tonight. Typical light schedule on day 2 of the MLB season (day 11 using NCAA terminology).
One play tonight Yankees (Sabathia) @ Astros (Feldman) +132. Padres are a lean since the total is under 7. Hockey has Carolina and Florida showing as the only options and both played and lost last night.
Opening Day
It’s my favorite day of the year and effectively starts the new year For me so hooray to that. 1-0 on our leans with San Diego’s win and we have another leaner with the Mets and Gee hosting the Natinals. Possible play on Arizona tonight. Hockey later as well.
Just as a reminder that we will have plays on home teams underdogs up to +200 only with some other criteria. Unlike other sports baseball has a tangible benefit to batting last which benefits home teams in addition to the usual referee and travel biases that cover all sports. More on this as time allows…
UPDATE: All 4 away hockey games qualify for leans though there is only one play and that is Carolina EVEN at Ottawa. One baseball game as well Arizona +111
2014 MLB Over/Unders
Lou and I had very respectable showings in this last year. Let’s see how things go this year. As always, the stakes are a pub crawl…
10)San Francisco Giants Under 86.5 The Giants in recent years have begun to diversify their portfolio, adding increasingly mediocre pitching to a team that couldn’t score runs. After winning only 76 games last year they went out and signed a soon to be 39 year old pitcher in Tim Hudson, and Michael Morse whose career numbers are surprisingly lame. I’m not even talking about how much he likes to strike out, did you know he has only once hit 20 hrs in a season? The only thing that possibly saves everyone is Sandoval carrying the team on some crazy contract year.
9)Texas Rangers Under 87 I just saw that Tanner Scheppers, he of zero career starts, is getting the ball today. The Rangers will be counting on the likes of Tommy Hanson, Joe Saunders, and Robbie Ross, whoever the Hell that is. And while you could note that some of these guys are stopgaps, the folks they are filling in for aren’t the most confidence-inspiring group either, with Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis making a combined 2 starts last year.
8)Cincinnati Reds Under 84.5 I think Choo leaving is going to hurt quite a bit. Outside of Votto and Bruce this lineup is not impressive. The pitching staff is solid but like half their bullpen is starting the season on the disabled list.
7)Cleveland Indians Over 80.5 I know the Indians were probably more lucky than good last year, but this is still a solid team. Good rotation, decent lineup, and Axford is looking like a strong rebound candidate.
6)Atlanta Braves Under 87.5 Very similar to the Texas injury situation. They have a very good bullpen but you need people to get you there. The lineup is good but it seems slightly awkward. Heyward as leadoff and Chris Johnson hitting cleanup do not seem ideal. Gattis better stay healthy and productive.
5)Chicago White Sox Under 76.5 The pitching staff isn’t awful, but they would need pretty much everyone in there to have career years in order to be a competitive team. God help them if Chris Sale gets injured. I like the addition of Adam Eaton, but like many of the other bats in this lineup, he is laregly an unproven commodity.
4)Boston Red Sox Under 88 Do you expect Buckholz to go 12-1 again? Do you expect David Ortiz to match any of the power numbers he put up last season? Do you expect Victorino to flirt with .300 again? Nava, Carp, and Napoli to repeat their numbers? Too often Middlebrooks and Bradley Jr will be exposed this year I believe. And though I love his potential, Xander has not actually done anything yet.
3)Oakland A’s Under 88.5 I am not the world’s biggest Bartolo fan, but Oakland will miss him. Think about this rotation, Colon gone, Parker injured, Griffin injured, Millone suspect, Gray unproven, Balfour gone.
2)Miami Marlins Over 69.5 The same phrase emerges when reading Miami previews. They aren’t going to contend, but they will be improved. I can believe it.
1)Toronto Blue Jays Over 80.5 If you recall, the Blue Jays were the hotness going into things last year. In fact they were the odds on World Series favorites at one point around January. The point with that is simply to note there is still a solid amount of talent on this team. Enough to win half their games at any rate.
2014 MLB Win Totals
Here are my picks for the season. Per usual, I had more problems getting these in a suitable order than picking the teams. Last season I went 8 for 10, but missed on the top two teams in the confidence scoring but still managed to beat Pat anyway. Here are my 10 for 2014:
10) Indians Over 80.5
9) Cubs Over 70
8) Phillies Under 76.5
7) Mariners Under 81
6) Braves Under 78.5
5) Reds Over 84.5
4) Athletics Under 88.5
3) Twins Under 70.5
2) Cardinals Over 91.5
1) Tigers Under 90
Dodgers would be on this list but it’s a bit dodgy to place them since they’ve banked two wins already. I’m posting my NL draft writeup here at some point and one of the themes is being down on lots of the Dodgers individually (Puig & Kemp in particular), but collectively there aren’t many weak spots. The same theme applies for the Cardinals so they’re listed for an Over instead. Cleveland and the Cubs have fixed downsides which is helpful. Usually overs on poor teams are challenging since those teams will rent their best players about to be out of contract, but other than Samardjia, I’m not sure who the Cubs could trade and I also expect some of their farm system talent to force their way up soon enough. Phillies, Mariners and Braves are dealing with Age, Incompetence and Injuries respectively. The Mariners will need Cano to cover up a host of issues including relying on an outfield that would probably be slightly improved defensively with me manning left field than any of the Hart/Morrision/Ackley white person trio. They have starting pitching injuries as well though not to the extent as the Braves losing theirs for the season instead of for a month or two.
Lean on the Padres (Cashner) at home for opening night hosting the Dodgers (Ryu). I’ll try and keep up with plays the next week or two before I disappear for the better part of April.
