Tonight’s Teaser
PIT +3 and Under 44.5
I feel this will be a classic low scoring and boring PIT v BAL tilt like usual. Nevermind the whole craziness with the Ray Rice stuff.
Although interesting tidbit from Betlabs about these Thursday night Games:
Since 2005 NFL favorites have gone 48-37 ATS (+9.22 units) with 4 days of rest or fewer. #Ravens
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) September 11, 2014
We also have our “parlay of the season” candidate so far:
Bettor takes all NFL UNDERs on $10 9-leg parlay, wins $4,000 from the @WilliamHillUS sports book at the Max Casino. pic.twitter.com/BLJdTJFzRv
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) September 10, 2014
It Begins
The vast majority of NCAAF plays I make this year are going to be made with at least casual reference to the amazing Paul Myerberg. I mentioned him a few years ago, he has worked in the past as the College Football Guy for The New York Times, and he is now filling the same role over at USA Today. His predictions on what will happen can vary from spot-on to laughable, but what he will normally give you is an outstanding breakdown position-by-position for each and every team. Now, he does this once at the beginning of the season, with occasional updates on relatively important stuff. It is incumbent on you to ensure Paul’s story line as the season plays out. Fortunately we are still in early times so I can take Paul at his word for now.
Houston (+17 -104) @ BYU @ 17
Tuesday
0-2 yesterday with a pass on the Arizona game that also would have been a loser. Not only were we 0-2, but neither team he had scored a run. That’s 18 innings of futility to go with the 13 from Saturday when Sean and I were at Wrigley and it’s very apparent that this baseball season needs to end soon. There’s an article here describing the expansion of (or return to) the rulebook defined strike zone and how it’s led to a significant reduction in scoring along with fewer steroids and shifting defenses.
The lower strike zone explains one-third to two-fifths of the offensive decrease over the last five years.
I’m not longing for the days of futility infielders hitting 30 home runs a year, but I’d like to see a run scored every so often, even if I’m gambling on and watching some of the worst offenses in the league.
No plays tonight.
Monday
We went pushy-pushy here as Atlanta came back to tie and then win against New Orleans in OT while Jacksonville set their game on fire in Philadelphia and was miracle covered at the end. It was an excellent day for Sportsbooks all around as Chicago, New England, New Orleans, Denver and Pittsburgh all failed to cover and/or lost outright and all had over 70% exposure with the Eagles being the only +70 team to cover. I mentioned to Sean and Pat yesterday that I really should have taken Buffalo as well but cest la vie and all that.
Two baseball plays tonight:
Cardinals (Miller) @ Reds (Axelrod) +112
Orioles (Gonzalez) @ Red Sox (Kelly) -110
One interesting game tonight in the NFL and it’s the late one with the Cardinals moving from -3 to -2.5. Since it’s before week 3, I’m free to ignore the public numbers not being quite to my liking :) We’ll see if I take the game or not.
NFL Over/Unders
That time of year again. I am just going to list my picks, I will likely dive into rationales at another point. Let’s see what we like…
Tampa Bay Bucs Over 7
Colts Under 9.5
Cowboys Under 8
New York Jets Over 7
Cardinals Over 7.5
Sunday
Two.NFL plays and I am too hungover to look at baseball:
Jacksonville +10.5 -115
Atlanta +3 -103
Friday
No baseball again tonight. Not much in the way of leaners either. Line moves are much more subtle now that a lot of folks are back onto football. I’ll post my annual public service announcement here for NFL which is that any public numbers or metrics are no good until week 3, and week 1 regardless of what anyone says is mostly a crapshoot. Tread lightly…or not
NFL Season Picks
First off, thanks to Sean for a much more elaborate post than I have here. Sean and I had a chat last week which really should have been our first ever Miracle Covers podcast, and we’re in agreement on most of my plays that I have below. We could really shorten the first two to say that having Blaine Gabbert as your QB makes winning football games approximately as likely as winning a poker hand with 2-7.
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 -165
I would take Under 10 and Under 9.5 as well on this team. You have a coach that will be elsewhere in a year’s time, a defense where most of the superstar players are injured or suspended and an offense incapable of carrying the team, mimicking what happens in Baltimore when their defense stopped being excellent and reverted to average or worse. Also Gabbert is their backup.
Jacksonville OVER 5 EVEN, To WIN AFC South +2600
I was solidly in the +2100 range on the AFC South portion of this bet but got some more action down today at +3400 which was a bad line that seems to have not been cancelled yet. So I’m averaging out to +2600 overall. Does Jacksonville have a better than 1:25 chance to win this division? Absolutely. They have upgraded at QB and have a chance to significantly upgrade if Blake Bortles is any good. They also have some depth especially at receiver and their secondary and the worst division in football, so 8-8 might be good enough. They won 4 games last year and Pinnacle has their Over 4.5 juice well over -200.
Philadelphia to win NFC East -112
I’m unconvinced of the other teams in this division and 9-7 (The Eagles total is 9) or 10-6 will get this done.
Top 5 Confidence Scoring
5) San Francisco UNDER 10.5
4) Jacksonville OVER 4.5
3) Kansas City UNDER 8.5
2) Atlanta UNDER 8.5
1) New Orleans OVER 9.5
