Friday
Early post as I’m traveling later today. 1-1 yesterday as Florida lost and Vancouver won. To Sean’s point yesterday, I did know Florida has been excellent defensively in 5-on-5 play, but unfortunately they are last in the league in goals with 16 in 11 games. Their coach summarized for us:
We just weren’t sharp enough, we weren’t hungry enough and we didn’t battle enough.
There’s a joke about talent in there somewhere. Winnipeg lost in a shootout to Pittsburgh 4-3 and in the late game, Vancouver held on to win by about a second (Skip to 4:30 if the video doesn’t start there)
Options tonight are limited. Devils on a back-to-back are in Detroit and Indiana is an option for sadists at Boston in NBA.
UPDATE: Devils +155 and Pacers +5.5
TNF Thoughts
I’ve been betting TNF pretty heavily this year; smashing both the over and the favorites (esp at home) fairly hard. I’ve been rewarded with a great ROI as a result (sans the NE-Jets lean; this game is a “rivalry” game along with Saints/Falcons and Washington/Cowboys; the record don’t matter when these teams meet, especially in Foxboro where the Jets play hard).
I don’t have any lean on the teams themselves tonight; both are pretty craptastic (do you know this is the first time both Cincy and Cleveland have faced each other and both teams were over .500 since 1987?). But what I *love* tnoight is the under (46 at -110). A few thoughts:
I bet the season under on the Browns (5.5) hoping that Mike Pettine would help bring this team down along with the Johnny Football QB turmoil. Hoyer has looked OK and the Browns schedule so far has to be the worst in the league. What I didn’t expect, and Lou mentioned this before the year: the Browns defense is pretty good. It might even be top-5 good. They have the 2nd best CB in the game this year in the super duper Joe Haden (#1 is Pat Peterson of the Cardinals; a big reason they are 7-1 right now), a decent front 7 that still has produced despite losing one of the best LBs inthe game in D’Qwell Jackson to the Colts, and Pettine has shown to be an outstanding defensive head coach (as his absence from his last employer, the Jets, has reared its head; they have sucked in the secondary this year. It doesn’t help their #2 CB is a converted safety).
The Browns offense on the other hand? Awful. Just awful. They have an average professional QB, they change RBs every week, their #1 WR is Miles Austin thanks to Josh Gordon smoking the reef, and they are missing both their #1 TE (Cameron) and one of the best Centers in the game, Alex Mack. Pettine’s coaching decisions are also pretty wary on this side of the ball, as evidenced here.:
The Bengals, on the other hand, play down to their competition each and every single week. They have nagging injuries to their #1 RB (Bernard) and #1 WR (Green). Green is playing tonight, but he’s basically just been a decoy over the last few weeks for guys like Mohammed Sanu. Cincy’s defense *is* a top 10 defense: but only when healthy. Vontaze Burfict is one of the best 3 down LBs in the game; he’s also one of its dirtiest, which leans tackling with the crown of your helmet. He’s had several concussions this year. The Bengals are also quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who the crowd was ready to turn on last week when he almost gave the game away to Jacksonville AT home (if only thanks to a Jeremy Hill 155 yard running day).
The weather will also have a 50% chance of rain, 43 degrees, and winds at 10-15 mph. 75% of the money is on the over (at -105). The loser of this game, especially Cleveland, is out of the playoff hunt. Therefore it will be played with that grind it out intensity. It will also be craptastic and low scoring because I can’t think of any other way these two teams play. I also like the over in punts, whatever that is.
NHL BONUS:
Tonight's #Browns #Bengals game is receiving more bets (54,052) than all 10 NHL games combined (43,899).
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) November 7, 2014
Florida +135 (agreed with Lou here! Do you know they lead the NHL in least allowed 5-on-5 goals?)
Winnipeg +155 (2-1 betting on the other Jets this year. They face Pittsburgh tonight, a tough task, but who gets up for a game in WINNIPEG?)
Thursday
Both basketball plays were losers yesterday as Denver was not close to winning at all. The system backtested well so we’ll stick with it for the time being. Vancouver, Winnipeg and Florida are on the shortlist for hockey tonight from west to east. Not sure yet which games will end up being plays but I’l try and get them up 30 minutes before gametime.
NFL tonight is Browns at Bungles. I liked Cincy at -6 but not at 6.5 or 7 which is where the line will close. Good luck.
FLORIDA +135 @ Philadelphia
UPDATE Vancouver +120 @ San Jose
Wednesday
1-1 and breakeven in our hockey plays last night as Edmonton was beaten easily with a backup goaltender and a few forwards out and Phoenix held on to win 3-2 over Toronto. The Suns won by 6 and I lost with a bad line. For the few people who asked there probably won’t be more than 20-30 NBA plays for the entire season and I’m using small amounts on top of that. Nowhere near our hockey bet sizes.
Nothing doing on the 3 NHL games. One NBA possibility late tonight; I’ll try and remember to update
UPDATE: Denver +3.5 and +150
Tuesday
Short on time, may add another game in each sport in a few hours.
NHL
Edmonton +155 @ Philadelphia
UPDATE: I did not account for the terribleness of Edmonton backup goaltenders that only rivals Winnipeg and the Islanders for sustained failure. Doubling down on another terrible team, Toronto @ Arizona -110
NBA
Phoenix -6.5 @ Lakers
Monday
1-0 with our Rams play yesterday and a big swing and a miss not getting in Miami before it moved to -3. It was probably playable there but I was nitty with the line move and missed out on an easy win. Up to a merely below-average 7-8 for -0.15 on the season. Nothing in hockey gain with a solo game tonight that’s already well underway and nothing over the weekend either. NHL is 7-7 +2.45 for the season. No bet on Giants-Colts tonight and we’ll hope for some action tomorrow.
Sunday
3-3 in amateur football yesterday. Likely passing on Miami, Jets and Houston with yesterday’s Rams the only play today.
NFL Week 9
Posting this early as I will be getting hammered starting at around 8:30AM for the other football.
KC -10 (+105) vs Jets
Started at -115, now +105. Pounding this all the way; giddy at both taking Vick on the road in KC vs fans who will be rabid after that stomach punch WS loss…..and watching the Jets implode is always a yearly treat.
Bucs +7 (-120) at Cleveland
Way too many points. Cleveland missing both Mack and Cameron.
Arizona +2.5 (or whatever it is) at DAL
Oakland +15.5 at Seattle
Oakland will be a tougher and tougher out as they get close to (im)perfection. Seattle having identity and clubhouse issues, too. This is now at +14.5. BTW: I think if I am the Raiders, I wait for the Jets to fire Rex Ryan and then give him the keys. He’d be a great fit there.
San Diego +1 at Dolphins
Rivers vs Tannenhill? I’ll take Rivers.
5 team teaser (at +400):
PIT +1, NE +3.5, SF -10, KC -10, OAK +21
4 team parlay (+1200)
SD +1, KC -10, NE +3.5, TB +7
EPL Bonus:
MAN U v MAN CITY UNDER 3
TOTTENHAM EVEN
Sacrilege
Team Lou has college football plays today. Please remember from the last time I did this, I’m not actually going to watch any of these games, nor can I name a single player on any of these rosters. I don’t think I could name a more then five college football in total unless you let me just say ‘Smith’ or some other ubiquitous last name. Toronto was an easy 4-1 winner in hockey last night. Possible but unlikely to have any plays tonight. Here is college football:
Air Force – Army UNDER 56.5 -109
Boston College +3 -114
Maryland +3 -102
Northwestern +3.5 -114
Kentucky +7.5 -106
And an NFL game I am getting posted early before the line moves down to 8 or something ridiculous:
Rams +10 -117 @ San Francisco
UPDATE: San Diego St +3 -115
Addiction
I am growing increasingly addicted to exacto bets for Premier League. They are VERY tough to hit, as the odds attest. I hit recently on one of these in the 2-0 Swansea/Leicester game only bc some bald guy on Leicester missed a “sitter” (as they say) in stoppage time. These get especially fun when Tottenham plays because you often get to use unusual numbers on your keyboard. All plays @ 3.
