NFL Week 12
SF -9 (-120) vs WAS
Washington is probably as of now the worst team in the league, and one of the worst run orgs in sports. Jay Gruden, the head coach, ripped RGIII on Monday, saying that the QB should worry about just himself (which is correct; RGIII is acting like an entitled douche). Then, the next day, took it back and apologized to RGIII in a press conference (way to win a locker room! DeSean Jackson is thrilled!). Then ownership, who its rumored made him do that, comes out today to say that Gruden is independent and can do what he wants (including benching the QB; I hope he doesn’t. They actually played well when he was under center). SF is a hot mess too, but at least they are talented. As a side note, I took both of these teams’ season unders (SF 10.5, WAS 7.5) so if this game ends in a tie (40-to-1 for those interested), it’s a double win!
TB +6 (-110) at CHI
The Lovie Smith Bowl. Again, this line is way too high, should be CHI +3 to +4.5. FWIW, the line has now moved to +5 (-120) and may end up in the Vegas zone at some point.
ARI at SEA Under 42
It was 41. I think someone wins this game 17-10. Big test to see if Cardinals are for real today.
TEASER (+260):
NE -7.5 (I never knew that Jim Caldwell actually ran the ball on 3rd and 9 from the 31 with 0:24 seconds and NO TIMEOUTS in that crazy Lions/Atlanta game. He said, “it’s not that much of a risk”. WTF! Did he go to the Romeo Crennel school of head coaching? I’ve never played Madden that bad after finishing a bottle of tequila!).
GB -9
SF -9
PHI -11
Thanks to Oakland on Thursday, I was almost as excited as these guys:
https://twitter.com/FBallblogger/status/535843674513735680
Saturday
Islanders and Bruins were both winners in a shootout last night. Two plays to add to Stanford so far today:
Maryland +6 @ Michigan
NHL St. Louis @ Ottawa +130
There should be an update around 6
UPDATE: Carolina +130 @ Colorado
Florida Atlantic +7 @ Middle Tennessee St
Friday
Arizona/Phoenix was a loser in Dallas yesterday 3-1. Just like at times last season, the Coyotes would play a solid 1st two period and then fail to turn up for the 3rd, just like a pub soccer team would if you told them there were three halves. I did take the opportunity to tweak some of my systems over the past 24 hours so hopefully some better results await. Two games of note this evening. First we have a play on the co-official team of Miracle Covers this season, Islanders +150 @ Pittsburgh. We are also close on Boston -125 @ Columbus but it’s ultimately going to be a pass.
Also an early amateur tackle football play for tomorrow, Stanford -5.5 @ Cal. The line is currently 6 at most places.
Thursday
How the f— is it Thursday already? 1-1 in hockey yesterday for a breakeven or small loss depending on how you weighted the plays. Vancouver struggled behind some shaky defense and goaltending in a game they should have won easily, and Philly lost getting yelled at by their GM after the game. “That’s [bleeping] embarrassing! Jesus [bleeping] Christ!” said Ron Hextall. Interestingly, we are 6-0 betting favorites this season which is a meaningless tout-like stat I can get behind.
Also, another winner in NBA last night after an atrocious start as the Clippers won easily in Orlando.
Not much on the agenda for this evening. Full slate of hockey but not much that is appealing. The best game is Phoenix +135 or +140 at Dallas. Dallas is actually this year’s version of the Islanders playing very little defense with not enough goaltending and occasionally some offense to go with it. Problematically they’ve lost eight in a row at home and longtime followers know we like to bet against winning teams and on losing ones whenever possible. Phoenix is an underwhelming team whose goalie has been outplayed by his backup to date. 830 start so I will think on it and then update if there is a play.
UPDATE: Fcck it Arizona +140 @ Dallas
Also, we have a lean on a total, Carolina @ Los Angeles UNDER 5
Wednesday
Two hockey games both nationally televised tonight and we are taking action on both of the away teams. Philadelphia +140 visits the Rangers in a bit and Vancouver -130 is at Edmonton in the late game. Both lines may move so I am getting action in now. NBA because I’m an idiot is Clippers -5 @ Orlando.
Penguins were an easy 4-0 winner yesterday but Umass lost handily. I’m going to try and do college football the rest of the year and likely again next season. Totals will probably be rare.
Tuesday
NBA and NFL were both winners yesterday but Scotland lost disappointing millions of countrymen in a meaningless friendly 3-1. Tampa smushed the Rangers 5-1 so a good pass on our part there. Full slate of hockey tonight but there is not very much I like this evening, though I can’t pass up the chance to fade Montreal and back a good team for once. Pittsburgh -125 @ Montreal is the only play this evening.
Also an amateur tackle football play, Umass +9 @ Akron. I’ll likely continue with amateur football for the rest of the season but will definitely be giving amateur basketball a pass.
Monday
All winners yesterday except for the NBA which I am horrible at. Phoenix, which is in Arizona, got a 2-1 win in Edmonton to put us up to 14-13 +4.4. We had two NFL winners including the Rams moneyline to get us to 10-9 +3.85 for the season. Some plays and leans tonight:
Tampa and the Rangers are about to get started in New York. We have a very marginal lean on the Rangers but am passing on the game. Tampa is an excellent hockey team.
NFL is interesting as the public is all over Pittsburgh just like in the Jets game, so the please do not bet the Steelers tonight. I am however taking a rare total and that’s PIT/TEN OVER 46.
In soccer, despite not having any public betting data to work with, I have a play for tomorrow afternoon in a friendly: England @ Scotland +0.5 -130
Lastly, NBA because I’m an idiot: Chicago +5.5 @ Clippers
Sunday
I am hungover. Totals were all losers yesterday. NFL:
Rams +10 -123
Rams to win outright +375
Chiefs -1
Eagles are an option at 4. Florida and Arizona are on the shortlist for hockey tonight
NBA because I’m an idiot. Nuggets +110
UPDATE: Arizona +110
UPDATE 2: I meant to write Phoenix to indicate I was taking the Coyotes and not the Cardinals. Sorry I am unable to keep my city & state monikers accurate.
NFL Week 11
Tampa Bay +7.5 (-115) at Washington
Way too many points.
Seattle at KC Under 43.5 (-115)
This was at 42 earlier this AM; two good defenses, two average offenses, and it’s REALLY cold in KC today.
Arizona Pick vs Detroit
I have a pants tent in high anticipation that I’ll get to bet against Jim Caldwell, Stafford, and this talented trainwreck of a team in the playoffs in January.
SF -4.5 at NYG
This is part 1 of many for a hedge towards our SF Win Totals Under 10.5
Eagles +6 (-120) at GB
2012 Sean: “I will not take Mark Sanchez on the road. I will not take Mark Sanchez on the road. I will not take Mark Sanchez on the road. ”
2014 Sean: “80% of the money is on Green Bay, I have to take Mark Sanchez on the road.”
Denver -10 at St Louis
Shaun Hill sucks.
TEASER (+175):
NE +3.5
DEN -10
NO -7.5
NHL BONUS:
FL at ANA Under 5 (EVEN)
