NFL Week 14
NFL:
TB +10 (EVEN)
Started at -115. According to Chad Millman, the sharps love this one and so do I as I love betting against Jim Caldwell coached teams. Reggie Bush returns today, but he’ll get hurt in the 3rd quarter. Tampa is also 3-1 vs the spread in its last 4 games. The Lions will probably win by 3, but if you wanna take a flyer on the TB ML at +375, it’s not a bad play.
NO -10 (+110)
I hate taking the Saints, but they are at home and Carolina’s really banged up……especially Cam Newton, who probably shouldn’t be playing, and only is because the leader of the craptastic NFC South division is *2* games under .500.
IND at CLE Under 50
Way too high. Indy’s defense blows, but so does Cleveland’s offense. For those wondering why Johnny Manizel isn’t starting today, this maybe why: Jonathan Paul Manziel, born December 6, 1992 (which in that case, good decision Coach Pettine!).
MIN -4
Vikings playing well at the end of the year, and the Jets can’t throw the ball. This line probably should be 4.5 to 5.5.
SF – 9 (-105)
Hedge for our under bet. Also going to throw the ML (-450) in a parlay. SF’s last 4 games: at OAK, at SEA, SD, ARI. Seattle is probably the one loss that actually happens to ship our bet.
PARLAY (+700):
SF -450
MIN -4
SEA at PHI Over 47
IND at CLE Under 50
TEASER (+240):
NO -10
SF -9
TB+10
NBA BONUS:
Washington at Celtics Over 205 (-105). 8-0 so far with these. The OVER has hit in 16 of Boston’s last 21 games, and 12 out of 15 at home.
Boring Saturday
I can’t find a single game to wager on. NFL tomorrow
UFC 181
UFC 181 is tonight; their best cards are always usually around July 4th and XMAS time. This one is no exception as we get TWO great title fights tonight. Its one of those rare cards I’d recommend casual or non-MMA fans to check out and watch.
Here are my plays:
Duffee vs Hamilton Over Rounds 1.5 +160
Duffee hasn’t fought since 2012 due to injury, and all of his fights have ended in KO (lose or win). Hamilton has never been KO’d, only submitted. The majority of the money is on the under here, but I expect both fighters to come out conservatively because the loser of this fight probably gets canned from the UFC, and no one wants to leave themselves open early.
Pettis vs Melendez Goes the Distance -14o
Super stoked for the fight; it’s the all-around game of Melendes vs the athletic kickboxing of Pettis. Melendez has never been KO’d or submitted, and I think both fighters cancel each other out here and we get a 5 round war as both men are good on the feet with defense and Octagon awareness.
Lawler +170 vs Hendricks
This started at +150. I have no idea why its gone up; Hendricks is coming off a biceps tear he suffered in the 1st match between these two (great fight) and had to furiously cut 22 lbs of weight in 3 mths (and you have to be at exact weight for title fights). Hendricks barely made weight in their first fight and it effected him in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Lawler’s sprawling has gotten better, hasbeaten his last 2 top-10 opponents, and he is better on his feet than Hendricks (a 2-time NCAA champ at OK State). I expect a Robbie Lawler win tonight, and then we can have an awesome rubber match in March as really, this fight based off of the last one since it was so close, is more like Rounds 6-10 rather than a new fight.
NHL BONUS:
Montreal +105 at Dallas
I am also sadly leaning on Arizona +120 at home to my banged up Bruins, who have lost their last 3 games on a West Coast Swing, and have been outscored 12-6 in this stretch. 87% of the money is on Bruins as well:
Most Lopsided #NHL Games Tonight
87% on #Bruins
85% on #Lightning
73% on #RedWings
70% on #Panthershttp://t.co/zq3ewdfc7m— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 6, 2014
Today is also MIAA Super Saturday for Massachusetts HS football (no action) but to help you feel old, here’ Vince Wilfork’s kid blowing someone up on special teams:
Kinda cool. Vince wilforks kid #31 blocking for Andre tippet's kid #20 #Xaverian https://t.co/uRJDBXIAUc
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) December 6, 2014
Heading Towards the Busy Season
Some Premier League plays for you as Chelsea is losing with roughly 20 minutes to go. With all due respect to the insanity that happens at Tottenham games, Newcastle has to be the most unpredictable team in Premier League right now. Aside from Newcastle 4 Chelsea 0 just about no score in that game would have seemed impossible.
Hull City/W.B.A. Draw +224 @ 14
QPR/Burnley Over 2.5 -101 @ 12
Tottenham ML -146 @ 14
Stoke/Arsenal Draw +249 @ 13
EXACTO
Liverpool 2 Sunderland 1 +729 @ 4
Friday
Back on the plus side with a 2-1 +1.86 evening. Columbus somehow won and Calgary somehow lost. Columbus allowed 52 shots while in Buffalo, Tampa goalie Ben Bishop earned a shutout only facing 13. Nothing doing this evening, not even some poor NBA bets.
TNF
First, thanks to the Celtics and Pistons for going into OT last night at 88 a piece and then scoring 38 points in a wild 5 minute OT to secure the Over. 8-0 now! #miraclecover
Here are my plays tonight:
NFL:
Chicago/Dallas Over 51
Two of the worse defenses in the league. They both played last Thursday so no one really is in the mood to tackle, if they actually could tackle. Weather is a crisp 34 degrees, no wind (rare for Chicago) The only fly in the ointment here is if both teams play flat because they just played last Thursday (but remember: the NFL REALLY cares about player safety). Speaking of safeties, I’m also take a prop: first score is FG or Safety at +145.
NHL:
Going with Lou’s suggestions: Colorado +135 at Calgary (also works as a hedge as we have their season points under) and in a parlay at 3-to-1 with -150 Nashville, facing Martin Broudeur who comes out of psuedo-retirement as a member of the St.Louis Blues. He joins a long list of great HOF players who symbolize themselves with one team and end their careers (usually in a blaze of crap for one year) with another team where those jerseys get sold for $5 at the discount section at a Dick’ Sporting Goods store. Noteables:
Jerry Rice (Seahawks)
Ray Bourque (Colorado)
Emmitt Smith (Cardinals)
Michael Jordan (Wizards)
Brett Favre (NY Jets)
Karl Malone (Lakers)
Joe Montana (KC Chiefs)
Thursday
Time to get back in action tonight with a full slate of hockey games, several of them playable. Let’s get right to it:
New Jersey +161 @ Toronto
Columbus +125 @ Florida
Colorado +135 @ Calgary
Unlike last week, I actually like all of these. Vancouver @ Pittsburgh and Boston @ San Jose look like the most entertaining games of the evening. Nashville is not a bad shout if you’re up for playing a bigger favorite and fading Brodeur’s return with St. Louis. Dallas is my pick tonight in NFL with no real conviction whatsoever.
Celtics Over Wednesday
Celtics playing a back-to-back, but they hit the over in ATL (211) on Tuesday (where the under has hit 11/16; the over mostly hit due to a 40 pt 1Q by the Celtics; in a sense, this over hitting was fluky). They of course blew a 20 point lead, which they’ve been doing all year. I didn’t take it because I want to make sure when I bet these, that they are “slam dunks” (and I have a calculation that helps me with this; I just take the last 5 games home v away and figure out the standard deviance). In my 7-0 mark on these, the over not only hit….it hit over by an average of 8.5 pts (which is alot for NBA standards).
The O/U is 203 tonight against the woeful Pistons, but that is under my base “number” of 204. The Pistons are also one of the worst defenses in the league, so that means Jeff Green will have a big night (he also did well vs ATL yesterday) and the Celtics can easily hit 110-120 here.
Also, as an NFL side note: I took Seattle 11.2 to win the NFC. My thinking: they either a) win home field and become NFC champ or B) play the Packers in that game, and then I can take the Packers in a hedge. The only threat to these two teams is San Francisco; who despite their awful offense is super talented and can always go on a run. But they won’t be doing that scoring less than 14 pts/game.
Wednesday
Nothing at all this evening. Washington and New Jersey were losers and Carolina held on to win 2-1. 19-23 -1.1 on the hockey season. Full slate tomorrow
Tuesday
Last night’s MNF game was an exercise where no one won who watched the game, so taking the points and then watching CSI and/or falling asleep was the +EV in life move. NHL gets going in about 20 minutes so I’ll keep this short. One play tonight which is Vancouver @ Washington -115. Two other games which are worthy of your consideration are New Jersey +180 @ Pittsburgh and Carolina +120 hosting Nashville. I’m only at breakeven on this hockey season after the recent downswing and hopefully will get back on the plus side soon
