NFL Week 4

SD v CLE Over 45

Broncos -7

I don’t know how Minnesota throws the ball on Denver today.

TEASER (+375):

SD -7

DEN -7

ARI -6

GB -8.5

ATL -6

BONUS PROP:
Joe Philbin to be Fired +150

If the Dolphins lose to the Jets in London today, they’ll can him.

CFB 10.3

Illnois +7 (-110)

TEASER:

ALABAMA Pick
Navy/AF Under 50

Here are the other leans for the week:

UFC BONUS:

Francisco Trevino +325

NFL Week 3

St. Louis +2 (-115)

This is now at +1.5 (-110). The public loves Pittsburgh this week.

Titans ML +155

The Colts might be imploding. Today is the start of a 4-game home stand for the Titans. They don’t play another road game until November 1. Man, is the AFC South bad; the winner of this division might be 7-9 this year.

BUF @ MIA Over 43

It’s hot in Miami, and this usually loosens up the defenses by the 2nd half and opens the play up. Also, both teams are kinda over rated on defense IMO.

TEASER (+140):

NE -14
SEA -14.5
CAR -10

DFS Lineups for today:

NCAA Saturday 9.26

BYU +7 (-115)

BYU has had some wild finishes this year. Should be a fun game in Ann Arbor.

Texas A&M/Arkansas Over 58

This should be 65, in my view. These teams have played 3 games each, and only one time did one team score less than 20 points.

UFC BONUS:

Roy Nelson +240

Here also are our other leans for NCAA this week:

TNF Bets 9.24

Washington +4 (-120)

I don’t think the Giants are 4 points better than anybody right now. This is also a hedge for our WSH Season Under 6.5 bet.

Cincinnati/Memphips Under 70

Hat tip to buffaloholdem on twitter for this one. We took his Temple/Umass Under 55 lean last week as well as the 2H Under 30.

TEASER:

Washington +4
Cincinnati/Memphips Under 70

May you find the goal any way you can tonight:

MNF Lean

Jets +7 (-115)

This is now at -125. I think if the Jets stay committed to the run and control the clock, they’ll have a shot. CB Antonio Cromartie is also playing tonight. The Colts are sneaky bad; good QB but that is about it. Hilton has a bum hamstring, they still can’t stop the run, the free agents they picked up were good in 2010 and the coach is bad and on a lame duck season. Bad vibes all around.

I don’t usually bet on the Jets, but I took the Raiders =& in the 4PMs as I was stuck….. and I got there.

And here’s some awesome fail in CFB this weekend:

NFL Week 2

Here are my leans for this week:

PIT -6 (-105)

This has fallen from -7 to -6. I think the Steelers bounce back today and Antonion Brown has a big game vs an average 49ers defensive backfield. I will say, the 49ers looked pretty good on defense last week – but that might be more due to the fact the Vikings offense blows. BTW, the Steelers are most likely in “America’s teaser” today.

TEN -1 (-110)

Bet against Johnny Manziel anytime you can. Most of the money is on the Titans, but I still feel confident as the Browns are 1-9 in the their last season openers. The most hilarious one of them being from LB Dwyane Rudd throwing off his helmet and getting a penalty at the end of the game after a sack, allowing KC to get a late FG.

CIN -3.5 (+105)

I got this early before the juice moved; it is now at -110. This is a 1 o’clock start and West Coast teams usually struggle. And the Bengals looked pretty good in Week 1, thanks to fantasy sleeper TE Tyler Eifert.

CHI +2 (-110)

Arizona is missing Andre Ellington today. I hate betting on Jay Cutler but I think this is a coin flip game and I’ll take the points.

SEA/GB Over 49 (-115)

There will be alot of big plays in this one.

Lou also likes TB +10….but I just can’t bet on Jameis Winston (unless I am counting on a ride from the strip club from him). But its a good bet as 80+% of the money is on the Saints.

TEASER:

PIT -6
DET +3
SEA/GB Over 49

I’m also doing a 7 team parlay today, that is below:

And here are my DFS lineups:

TNF Lean 9.17

I like the Chiefs tonight -3 (-105). Early season Thursday night favorites killed last year, for a factor of reasons:

1) Most of these games are divisional. And divisional home teams usually do well, even if their records suck, because they know the other side so well. The first 5 games on TNF last year were huge blowouts for the favorites.

2) Short turnarounds: you give a team 4+ days to prepare for a divisional opponent? That’s awfully tough.

KC bullish reasons:

3) Travis Kelce is a beast, probably the second best tight end in the NFL behind Gronkowski (why not Jimmy Graham? Kelce can actually block). His numbers are more amazing considering the fact that KC hasn’t thrown a TD pass to a WR in over 17 straight games.

4) Peyton Manning’s noodle arm. He was 0-12 on passes that went long than 15 yards last game vs the Ravens. The majority of his completions were bubble screens. This is not good if you are a Broncos fan; I expect KC to play aggressive tonight and make Manning prove he can throw the ball deep. 70% chance of rain tonight in KC as well.

5) Denver’s offensive line looked really shaky, and are up against two excellent bookend DEs in Houston and Halu.

6) CJ Anderson, the Broncos starting RB, is probably not playing tonight.

Two bearish reasons: The Broncos defense looked fairly good last game and 65% of the money is on KC.

I’ll leave you with this goal of the year in UCL yesterday:

http://twitter.com/FootyLiveVines/status/644228870078623744

NFL Week 1

Miami -4 (EVEN)

This is now at -120. I think the money came in after RGIII was cleared to play!

Jacksonville +3.5

I think someone wins this game 17-16

Rams +4 (-110)

Seattle’s gonna have issues in pass protection as they traded away their center for Jimmy Graham.

Dallas/NYG Over 52 (-110)

Probably gets to 54 by gametime.

TEASER:

GB -7*
Miami -4
Dallas/NYG Over 52

*everybody in America has Green Bay in a teaser today

Mayweather vs Berto

Quick sure bets for Mayweather vs Berto on Saturday Night:

Over Rounds 11.5 – 240

Fight goes the Distance – 205

Floyd picked this fight so he could run around Berto for 12 rounds and get a quick decision to match Rocky Marciano’s record of 49-0. Berto has a good chin, and in his last loss got knocked down twice and was able to finish the fight, losing in a decision. Floyd has immaculate cardio, an underrated chin, and precision defensive boxing that allows him to manage how the fight goes. The only worry is that Berto “goes for it” and opens his chin to a counter……but Floyd’s power is his really his only weakness (which is why he fights the way he does; smart really).

The last two guys Mayweather KO’d were Ricky “Fatton” Hatton (who probably killed himself to make weight, hence why he ran out of gas by the 8th round) and Victor Ortiz (who Floyd sucker punched…”legally”). Berto is too tough for that stuff and I foresee these guys holding onto each other for 12 rounds like they are on prom night. Mayweather “Overs” have hit 5 fights in a row.

Mayweather is +170 to win by KO, if you are curious and want to hedge.

Boring fights make for boring decisions…..but padding one’s bankroll is exciting enough!

BONUS: Swansea FC +170

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