UFC 194
Marcio Alexandre Jr +150
Demian Maia vs Gunnar Nelson “Yes, Fight Goes the Distance” -200
Chris Weidman -140
Even though Rockhold is the better athlete, this is the ultimate fighting championship. Weidman’s ability to withstand punishment, keep coming forward, and superior wrestling should wear Rockhold down enough in the later rounds that he gets the W. This will be a great fight.
Aldo +120
As the fight nears, these odds have wildly changed thanks to euro donk money as well as sharp money, which is on Aldo…which is why I took Aldo while he was still getting odds. I even know someone with 5 figures on him! This fight started Conor at -170 and Aldo at +140….now it’s a -105 to -115 split. TBQH, I have no idea who will win this fight…the first 4 minutes will be wild and that will probably be the best chance Conor has of major damage. Conor does have two weaknesses Aldo can exploit: a) he’s a southpaw with a wide stance, leaving his lead leg vulerable to Aldo’s devastating leg kicks and b) his wrestling looked shoddy vs Chad Mendes (but will Aldo commit to going to the ground to use his black belt jiu-jitsu?).
This is just more of a “math” play as I feel we are getting odds on a fighter in essentially, a coin flip fight. Also noted: Conor McGregor looked like shit at the weigh-ins yesterday….but he always seems to look like Skelator on weigh-in day. If this fight goes into the later rounds, that might effect his punching power and performance. But this is essentially a “home game” for Conor as the Irish have been mobbing Vegas since Friday.
Meanwhile in the streets of @Vegas #UFC194 https://t.co/693MgDwKp7
— UFC (@ufc) December 12, 2015
NCAA BONUS:
ARMY v NAVY Under 50 -115
UFC and NBA Friday Night
UFC:
Barboza vs Ferguson: “No, fight does not go to distance” at -130. With the shorter cage at The Chelsea in the Cosmopolitan, and the explosive power these guys have, it won’t last long IMO.
I also like Lauzon v Dunham “No, fight does not to go distance” at +120, and Edgar by decision at +110 (I think him and Chad cancel each other out, even with the cage).
NBA:
Celtics +5.5
Celtics ML +180
TEASER: Celtics +5.5 and Over 215
I think the Celtics keep it close tonight, and even possibly win. They are relatively healthy (minus Smart), and have won two in a row. They actually are second in the league, behind the Warriors, in points win margin per game. Also, the ESPN probability indicator claims that GSW has a 68% of a chance to win tonight, and that is the lowest probability they have for the rest of 2015 (the rest is over 75%). Klay Thompson is also banged up with a sprained ankle. If there is any night they lose with the rest of the schedule in 2015; it is probably this one.
I bet every Irish donk in Vegas for the McGregor fight is taking the Celtics tonight at +5.5
Monday Night Hedge
We have the Washington Professional Football Team 6.5 season under, and they are now at 5 wins…so we are taking the Washington -3.5 (+120). So this now means I have to bet them every game, which I absolutely hate myself for. What do I do this to myself, having to be forced to bet on Kirk Cousins on a Monday Night vs Matt Cassell? The good news is that this line has gone down from 4.5 to 3.5….and a hilarious side note, thanks to the Giants gag job yesterday, if Dallas wins….”so you are saying there is a chance” is in play (along with the Pats’ gag job vs the Eagles yeterday).
Check out where the action is for tonight's Monday Night Football clash from our friends @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/YiGQe1rh5W
— Covers (@Covers) December 8, 2015
Kirk Cousins Washington Redskins Quarterback Yells 'You Like That,' to Reporters After Win , https://t.co/gq5ywFiAUi
— Luca1983 (@HenryRostock) December 7, 2015
Week 13 NFL
New Orleans +7
I think this is a close game today; the Saints have been struggling but their offense plays way better at home, averaging a full 14 more points at home than on the road this season. Carolina has a great defense with the best corner of 2015 Josh Norman, the best LB core in all of football, and a decent (yet depth lacking) defensive line. A McCown threw 31-35 for over 300+ yards vs Carolina in Week 2, so I expect them to be able to move the ball and keep it close in the Superdome. Carolina wins by 3 however, IMO, so I don’t recommend the ML at +260…but if you *are* gonna take two MLs down the stretch vs the Panthers, this one as well as when they are at the Giants in Week 15 would be the ones.
BUF v HOU Under 41.5
I have no idea how points get scored today except for a McCoy run or a Hopkins long TD pass. Both of these defenses are pretty good and it’s cold in Buffalo. This is also a de-facto playoff game as the winner has an more of an inside track to one of the wild card spots.
Miami vs Baltimore Over 42.5
I’ve taken the Miami over the last 4 weeks and it has hit each time. Both of these “back fours” are pretty awful, and the offenses turn the ball over a lot creating defense score opportunities as well.
NY Giants +2 (-105)
Betting on Eli is so dangerous; it’s like eating Chipotle: sure it might be good…but you could also get e.Coli. Eli usually does the “good game/bad game” thing, and he had a shitty game at 1st place Washington last week (can’t believe I just typed that), but with Revis out, I expect a huge day from OBJ and a win over a pretty average-at-best Jets squad.
TEASER:
NE -9
DEN -4
NYG +2
Odds to make NFL playoffs
Chiefs -400
Colts -280
Steelers -140
Texans +135
Jets +180
Bills +260
Raiders +800
Jags +1400
Dolphins +1600— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) December 6, 2015
Monday Night Football Math
Ravens +4 (-110)
Yes, the Ravens are down to their 3WR, their backup QB (Matt Schaub), and backup RB (Buck Allen). Their defense is injured. But they face the Browns, starting a McCown tonight because Johnny Manziel can’t layoff the sauce and are somehow giving 4 points despite this being a pick’em before Joe Flacco was declared out for the year. As bad as the Ravens have been, they’ve actually played 90% of their games with a score margin of less than 5 pts.
75% of the bets are on the Browns….that is insane. The Browns aren’t 2 points better than anybody right now (maybe Tennessee – they suck too), never mind 4. Someone will win this shit fest 13-10.
Looks like the underdogs are catching up to the favorites later in the year. The only team holding serve is Carolina.
NFL teams getting ≤35% of the bets this season have gone 42-29 ATS this season. (59.2%)
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) November 30, 2015
Congrats to the Edmonton Eskimos for winning the Coupe Grey! I batted 80% on CFL this year (shoutout to buffaloholdem for some of these leans) and can’t wait for more rouges next year!
About to hand this bad boy out! #CFL #GreyCup pic.twitter.com/PRJdYTST2P
— CFL (@CFL) November 30, 2015
NFL Week 12
MIA vs NYJ Over 43.5
MIN +1.5
TEASER:
MIN +1.5
CIN -10
ARI -10
AND
TEASER: HOU -3 and Over 50
Totals and betting trends on Sunday's NFL games courtesy @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/9mK8CdMdpt
— Covers (@Covers) November 29, 2015
NFL Week 11
TB +7 (-120)
StL +3 (-110)
MIA v DAL Over 46
KC v SD Over 45
TEASER:
CAR -7
NE -7.5
ARI -5
Breakdown of the percentage of all point spread wagers (by total # of tickets) on Sunday's NFL games @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/UeBrgqcU94
— Covers (@Covers) November 22, 2015
CFL BONUS:
Redblacks -6
Cotto vs Canelo Thoughts
Big fight tonight as Mexico’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez faces Puerto Rico’s Miguel Cotto for a unification title fight.
Canelo is coming off of a blistering KO of James Kirkland, and has only lost once (to Floyd Mayweather in a decision). He has power, but is considered more of a technical fighter like his promoter and former champion, Oscar De La Hoya. He is the younger fighter (25), and the favorite at -260.
Cotto is a legend in the sport for putting on some of the most gruesome fights in the sport. He blooded Floyd’s face in a catchweight bout, and is considered to have a great chin. He’s a zombie who just keeps on coming forward. He is 35 and aging and has hinted he is only going to fight a few more times; his next rumored bout would be against the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now, Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. A win tonight for Cotto would make that fight even bigger. Cotto has lost his last two fights via decision, and has changed his corner man to Freddie Roach (who corners Pacquiao). Roach claims Cotto will KO Canelo, but this is also the guy who said Rousey would KO Holly Holm and we all know how that worked out. He is a +200 underdog.
As for my thoughts? I again like the Over Rounds 11.5 tonight at -160. This line started at -200 and has moved down and I believe we are getting great value here. We have one fighter who has a granite chin and another fighter who is more technical than a brawler. Canelo has improved his power, but I don’t think it will be enough to put Cotto down in this fight (although Cotto’s fighting style will certainly give Canelo opportunities to score). The last guy Canelo KO’d, James Kirkland, is a “KO or be KO’d” type of fighter. While Cotto fights wild, he is also smart enough to pace himself AND has a gifted chin (which is why he is loved by boxing fans everywhere; he doesn’t quit).
I expect Canelo to use his youth in terms of cardio to “box and score” around the ring and make Cotto work to get into the brawling style close quarter exchanges he wants. I expect Canelo to win in a competitive split decision. The fight is in Vegas, so the crowd (and judges) will be on Canelo’s side. Canelo to win by decision is at +110 for those interested.
NCAA BONUS:
ND vs BC Under 43
TNF
I am going to pick the Jags and their piss colored unis tonight at -3 (EVEN). THey have played well lately and Yeldon is cleared to play. A win by any of these teams tonight gets them back in the AFC South “race”. We could see another 7-9 division winner this year! Always makes playoff gambling more fun!
