AFC and NFC Super Bowl 50 Odds Talk
Wild Card week! What a fun time of year…..and I’ve never seen 4 games so up in the air than this year for this week. Not one lock I can see, although there has been some heavy public action on some teams. We even have a pick ’em!
Onto the Conference Odds…..some of my favorite talk of the year (and most profitable – I’ve had good years taking both Seattle in 2013 and 2014 to win the Super Bowl once they locked up homefield).
AFC:
AFC Champion (Bovada)#Pats +200#Broncos +210#Steelers +450#Chiefs +650#Bengals +1000#Texans +2800
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) January 6, 2016
Denver is the #1 seed and they are not even the favorites to win the conference. I don’t think I have ever seen that before, and it’s because there are so many questions with the Broncos. Peyton Manning’s Week 17 “comeback” vs the Chargers now cements him in for the starting QB slot. Say if the weather is bad, or the defense which has had some key injuries in the last few weeks…..and Peyton doesn’t start out so hot, does Kubiak go to Osweiler? How does the team’s mood change with this? Do the HGH allegations vs Manning motivate the team? Do Phil Simms and Phil Nantz continue to openly wank it on air when they call the game in Denver in two weeks? Did Manning really have a foot injury and this is all a rouge to get Peyton off of a HGH cycle for a playoff run? That’s a lot of “ifs” going into the playoffs for me to be behind the Broncos.
Cincy is talented but the Dalton injury (and the fact they are coached by Marvin Lewis) takes them out of the equation. Ditto with the Steelers and LeVeon Bell (and the fact they are coached by Mike Tomlin). Houston is the “happy to be there” team.
Kansas City has won 10 straight and no one is really talking about them. Maybe that’s because their QB is Alex Smith and their coach is Andy Reid and we’ve all seen this story before. That being said, their defense is playing the best out of anyone in the NFL coming into the tournament and they get back Justin Houston from injury. But they most likely will have to play all 3 games on the road and I don’t think they have enough on offense, especially after the Maclin injury last week. But if you are looking for a “long shot” team, they might be the one you would pick just because of their defense. Wait, what am I saying…they are being coached by Andy Reid and it will eventually end up in a ball of flames like it always does.
The Pats not getting the #1 seed was shocking, quite frankly. The “4 Corners” offense they played with starters in Miami was embarrassing as they started the game with 18 straight plays to running backs. It’s not a good sign when the first time Brady threw vs Miami, Marcus Cannon throws Suh into Brady’s knees causing him to now have a high ankle sprain, which could effect his throwing accuracy. An AFC Championship game in Denver, as a Pats fan, scares me because Brady and Belichick are 3-7 lifetime there and always seem to get jobbed by the referees like a WWE PPV whenever they play there. If the Pats do lose in Denver, Belichick’s decision to set the Philadelphia game on fire earlier in December will be the reason why. The O-Line is a worry….but the key is Julian Edleman’s health. He is what gets the offense moving even against top flight defenses, and the last few weeks have shown that the Patriots do not have much WR depth. Gronk gets less double teams, Brady gets easier pre-snap reads and he is now the guy on 3rd down, especially with the injury to Dion Lewis. He’s also their best punt returner. If you short the Patriots, Edleman’s health would be one reason to do so, as the Patriots offense needs him healthy and effective for any chance for New England to fingerbang their way to Super Bowl 50. The Patriots are my selection to go through at +200, as in the end, the NFL is a league of quarterbacks and the Patriots have the best one.
NFC:
NFC Champion (Bovada)#Panthers +210#Cardinals +210#Seahawks +275#Packers +1200#Vikings +1400#Redskins +2200
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) January 6, 2016
I saw maybe 3 or 4 articles today saying that Seattle is the Wild Card team. The same team that scored 10 points at home vs the Rams 2 weeks ago. Yes, Doug Baldwin is on a heater but their defense has looked suspect at times and Thomas Rawls is injured meaning that their backfield next week will be a hobbled Marshawn “Old Groin” Lynch coming off injury, Bryce “Fantasy Sleeper Bust” Brown, and Christian “Two First Names and 4 Different Teams” Michael. Add that their game in Minnesota will be played in 0 degree temps, which might effect them even if they do win into the later rounds, I am very bearish on Seattle.
Green Bay’s WR can’t beat man coverage and their O-Line is injury ridden. Eddie Lacy decided to eat all of Wisconsin’s cheese. Aaron Rodgers has played crappy the last few games and Mike McCarthy’s sad mug on the sidelines looks like a guy at the bar who just lost his whole bankroll after playing 3 hours at the blackjack table. They need considerable personnel improvements at a good number of positions to be considered a contender for next year, in my own opinion.
Minnesota I think will be an annual NFC player down the road thanks to the coaching of Mike Zimmer. They were the best team against the spread this year at 13-3. But the NFL is a QB league; is Teddy Bridgewater good enough to throw for 300+ yards if the Vikings require that type of quality from the position? I say not yet. But it’s been a good season with good young players with Barr and Diggs and if they keep drafting like that, they could be a Super Bowl contender sooner rather than later.
Washington is interesting; “Kirk Cousins has made people millions in fantasy football” can be filed under “things I thought I would never say in 2015”. Jordan Reed is healthy and I’ve always thought when he is, that as a TE he is the closest comparison to Aaron Hernandez we’ve seen(minus the blocking ability….and the fact Hernandez also killed people). Their weaknesses are their defense and lack of running game, which I think creates a bad matchup for them deep into the tournament vs Arizona or Carolina.
Carolina has had a great year, only losing one game. They have the best LB core in football, and the best “in form” CB in Josh Norman. Cam Newton should be the MVP, and he’s done so with WRs like Ted Ginn and Jericho Cotchery. It’s like Madden 2006 all over again. But my issue with Carolina is three fold:
a) Can Cam Newton step up and win the big game NOW with this WR core? What happens if Greg Olsen goes down? He’s the MVP and talented…but until a QB can prove he can win, it’s always a question that needs to be asked.
b) The health of Jonathan Stewart. In any zone read style of offense, the RB quality is just an important as the ability of the QB to be a threat on the perimeter (as well as on play action). If it’s Cameron Artis-Payne, defenses will be more willing to cater to defenses that “sugar rush” Newton and keep him in the pocket and throw the ball more. Carolina needs a good balance because against playoffs defenses, that WR core I don;t think is good enough to win the game on their own.
c) Pass Rush. DL depth has been an issue for Carolina all year, and they have had numerous injuries to the position. It’s why they traded for Jared Allen’s old ass. And it’s also why they gave up big plays in December when things got tighter.
Them now not being able to go for 19-0 is a reason to be bullish on Carolina as that human pressure (which clearly effected the 2007 Patriots on their run) won’t be there…but I just think Carolina is this year’s “Team that overachieved because of a crappy schedule”.
Arizona is my choice for the NFC at +210. They have the best coaching in Arians, the best special teams, the best WR core, and the play of David Johnson has elevated their offense to the next level. The only outlier is Carson Palmer he’s always one hit away from disaster, which is something to think about if you are bearish on the Cards.
Stay tuned here later in the week as I try to go for my “Pursuit of Gambling Perfection” against the NFL Playoff lines as well as my “Champion of Champions” Yahoo DFS lineup I have for the weekend.
NHL BONUS: Pittsburgh Penguins +115
Week 17 NFL
The last week of the football year to bet on shitty football……man will I miss betting against shitty football teams.
NFL:
KC vs OAK Under 43.5
ATL vs NO Over 53
TEASER (+160):
NE -10
PIT -11
CAR -11
PARLAY (+240):
NE ML -480
HOU ML -255
KC ML -310
DEN ML -460
And to those who want to bet on the Indy vs Tennessee game today:
In a game with some meaning…
Josh Freeman hasn’t won an @NFL start in over three years.
Zach Mettenberger has never won (0-9).
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) January 3, 2016
Happy New Year Lines
Happy New Year everybody…here is to a +EV 2015.
UFC:
Andre Arlovski +175
NHL:
Blue Jackets ML +130
Week 16 NFL
Steelers/Ravens Over 47
Not only am I taking the over in this game, but also betting TD and yards results on the Steelers’ best players as I am up against them in fantasy. This is a great way to hedge fantasy results in a better way than DFS….you can also sometimes also hit your result and still win your fantasy week!.
Ben Roethlisberger Over Yards 300.5 (-110)
Ben Roethlisberger Over TD 2.5 (-130)
Antonio Brown Over Yards 104.5 (-140)
Martavius Bryant Anytime TD scorer (EVEN)
Tampa Bay -3
Indianapolis +3
TEASER:
CAR -7
SEA -12
PIT -11
Bowling for Bankrolls
Bowling Green vs GA Southern Under 64
Looks like we have some messy weather:
Messy forecast for GoDaddy Bowl between Geogria Southern and Bowling Green Thunderstorms, 84 % chance of rain,12-15 mph winds gusting north
— Covers (@Covers) December 23, 2015
NBA Bonus:
Sixers +11
NFL Week 15
Washington +2 (-110)
Again, this is part of a hedge I have been doing against their season under (6.5) which I took. That bet is fucked if they win one more time between now and the end of the year. I also think this line is wrong; the Bills aren’t favorites over many teams right now and the Washington Football Team is actually playing OK and motivated to win at home to keep pace in the NFC East. This line is now at +3 (-140)!
NYG +5.5 and NYG ML +195
I think the Giants do make it a close game vs the undefeated Panthers today, as they always play up or down to the competition. James Stewart is also out for the Panthers. I love the +5.5, but I am also taking the ML because I think this game vs NYG is the only game left on the Panthers’ regular season schedule that Carolina potentially loses, is this one.
SF +6
AJ McCarron on the road, there has to be value there. Yes, he’s playing Blaine Gabbert but he’s actually been OK and the Niners have played well at home and have covered 3 straight there.
Seattle -14.5
Johhnny Manziel and his drinking binge tour go into Seattle missing Brian Hartline, their 2nd best WR, as well as Mike Pettine actually admitting to the press he doesn’t think Russell Wilson is a top 10 QB. This team will get destroyed today.
It also looks like Vegas is getting better when to give a big line:
From 2012-2014, NFL underdogs of 14 or more points went 11-4-1 ATS (73%). However, this season dogs of 14 or more are 0-3 ATS.
— Jason Logan (@CoversJLo) December 20, 2015
TEASER:
NE -14
SEA -14.5
KC -6
Saturday Degeneracy 12.19
NHL:
Leafs ML +145
UFC:
Donald Cerrone +190
Cerrone lost to the champ Rafael Dos Anjos before…..but that was in the pre-IV/USADA era and Dos Anjos will have to prove he can win without the help of PEDs. Cerrone is also a great kickboxer who is always one kick away from victory.
NFL:
Darren McFadden Over Yards 62.5 (-110) and Anytime TD scorer (EVEN). This is one of the many hedges I will do as I am in the fantasy playoffs in my “big league” this week.
Week 14 NFL
Washington +3.5
Seattle -11
Cincinnati -3 (+135)
Here is a breakdown of the point spreads and trends for Sunday’s NFL games courtesy @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/nzEr6Vpq9h
— Covers (@Covers) December 13, 2015
TEASER:
DEN -7
GB -7
CAR -9
UFC 194
Marcio Alexandre Jr +150
Demian Maia vs Gunnar Nelson “Yes, Fight Goes the Distance” -200
Chris Weidman -140
Even though Rockhold is the better athlete, this is the ultimate fighting championship. Weidman’s ability to withstand punishment, keep coming forward, and superior wrestling should wear Rockhold down enough in the later rounds that he gets the W. This will be a great fight.
Aldo +120
As the fight nears, these odds have wildly changed thanks to euro donk money as well as sharp money, which is on Aldo…which is why I took Aldo while he was still getting odds. I even know someone with 5 figures on him! This fight started Conor at -170 and Aldo at +140….now it’s a -105 to -115 split. TBQH, I have no idea who will win this fight…the first 4 minutes will be wild and that will probably be the best chance Conor has of major damage. Conor does have two weaknesses Aldo can exploit: a) he’s a southpaw with a wide stance, leaving his lead leg vulerable to Aldo’s devastating leg kicks and b) his wrestling looked shoddy vs Chad Mendes (but will Aldo commit to going to the ground to use his black belt jiu-jitsu?).
This is just more of a “math” play as I feel we are getting odds on a fighter in essentially, a coin flip fight. Also noted: Conor McGregor looked like shit at the weigh-ins yesterday….but he always seems to look like Skelator on weigh-in day. If this fight goes into the later rounds, that might effect his punching power and performance. But this is essentially a “home game” for Conor as the Irish have been mobbing Vegas since Friday.
Meanwhile in the streets of @Vegas #UFC194 https://t.co/693MgDwKp7
— UFC (@ufc) December 12, 2015
NCAA BONUS:
ARMY v NAVY Under 50 -115
UFC and NBA Friday Night
UFC:
Barboza vs Ferguson: “No, fight does not go to distance” at -130. With the shorter cage at The Chelsea in the Cosmopolitan, and the explosive power these guys have, it won’t last long IMO.
I also like Lauzon v Dunham “No, fight does not to go distance” at +120, and Edgar by decision at +110 (I think him and Chad cancel each other out, even with the cage).
NBA:
Celtics +5.5
Celtics ML +180
TEASER: Celtics +5.5 and Over 215
I think the Celtics keep it close tonight, and even possibly win. They are relatively healthy (minus Smart), and have won two in a row. They actually are second in the league, behind the Warriors, in points win margin per game. Also, the ESPN probability indicator claims that GSW has a 68% of a chance to win tonight, and that is the lowest probability they have for the rest of 2015 (the rest is over 75%). Klay Thompson is also banged up with a sprained ankle. If there is any night they lose with the rest of the schedule in 2015; it is probably this one.
I bet every Irish donk in Vegas for the McGregor fight is taking the Celtics tonight at +5.5