Week 17 NFL

Posted in NFL - 2016/01/03 - 0 Comment

The last week of the football year to bet on shitty football……man will I miss betting against shitty football teams.

NFL:

KC vs OAK Under 43.5

ATL vs NO Over 53


TEASER (+160):

NE -10
PIT -11
CAR -11

PARLAY (+240):

NE ML -480
HOU ML -255
KC ML -310
DEN ML -460

And to those who want to bet on the Indy vs Tennessee game today:

Happy New Year Lines

Posted in Hockey, UFC - 2016/01/02 - 0 Comment

Happy New Year everybody…here is to a +EV 2015.

UFC:

Andre Arlovski +175

NHL:

Blue Jackets ML +130

Week 16 NFL

Posted in NFL - 2015/12/27 - 0 Comment

Steelers/Ravens Over 47

Not only am I taking the over in this game, but also betting TD and yards results on the Steelers’ best players as I am up against them in fantasy. This is a great way to hedge fantasy results in a better way than DFS….you can also sometimes also hit your result and still win your fantasy week!.

Ben Roethlisberger Over Yards 300.5 (-110)
Ben Roethlisberger Over TD 2.5 (-130)
Antonio Brown Over Yards 104.5 (-140)
Martavius Bryant Anytime TD scorer (EVEN)

Tampa Bay -3

Indianapolis +3

TEASER:

CAR -7

SEA -12

PIT -11

Bowling for Bankrolls

Posted in NFL - 2015/12/23 - 0 Comment

Bowling Green vs GA Southern Under 64

Looks like we have some messy weather:

NBA Bonus:

Sixers +11

NFL Week 15

Posted in NFL - 2015/12/20 - 0 Comment

Washington +2 (-110)

Again, this is part of a hedge I have been doing against their season under (6.5) which I took. That bet is fucked if they win one more time between now and the end of the year. I also think this line is wrong; the Bills aren’t favorites over many teams right now and the Washington Football Team is actually playing OK and motivated to win at home to keep pace in the NFC East. This line is now at +3 (-140)!

NYG +5.5 and NYG ML +195

I think the Giants do make it a close game vs the undefeated Panthers today, as they always play up or down to the competition. James Stewart is also out for the Panthers. I love the +5.5, but I am also taking the ML because I think this game vs NYG is the only game left on the Panthers’ regular season schedule that Carolina potentially loses, is this one.

SF +6

AJ McCarron on the road, there has to be value there. Yes, he’s playing Blaine Gabbert but he’s actually been OK and the Niners have played well at home and have covered 3 straight there.

Seattle -14.5

Johhnny Manziel and his drinking binge tour go into Seattle missing Brian Hartline, their 2nd best WR, as well as Mike Pettine actually admitting to the press he doesn’t think Russell Wilson is a top 10 QB. This team will get destroyed today.

It also looks like Vegas is getting better when to give a big line:

TEASER:

NE -14

SEA -14.5

KC -6

Saturday Degeneracy 12.19

Posted in Hockey, NFL, UFC - 2015/12/19 - 0 Comment

NHL:

Leafs ML +145

UFC:

Donald Cerrone +190

Cerrone lost to the champ Rafael Dos Anjos before…..but that was in the pre-IV/USADA era and Dos Anjos will have to prove he can win without the help of PEDs. Cerrone is also a great kickboxer who is always one kick away from victory.

NFL:

Darren McFadden Over Yards 62.5 (-110) and Anytime TD scorer (EVEN). This is one of the many hedges I will do as I am in the fantasy playoffs in my “big league” this week.

Week 14 NFL

Posted in NFL - 2015/12/13 - 0 Comment

Washington +3.5

Seattle -11

Cincinnati -3 (+135)

TEASER:

DEN -7

GB -7

CAR -9

UFC 194

Posted in NCAA Football, UFC - 2015/12/12 - 0 Comment

Marcio Alexandre Jr +150

Demian Maia vs Gunnar Nelson “Yes, Fight Goes the Distance” -200

Chris Weidman -140

Even though Rockhold is the better athlete, this is the ultimate fighting championship. Weidman’s ability to withstand punishment, keep coming forward, and superior wrestling should wear Rockhold down enough in the later rounds that he gets the W. This will be a great fight.

Aldo +120

As the fight nears, these odds have wildly changed thanks to euro donk money as well as sharp money, which is on Aldo…which is why I took Aldo while he was still getting odds. I even know someone with 5 figures on him! This fight started Conor at -170 and Aldo at +140….now it’s a -105 to -115 split. TBQH, I have no idea who will win this fight…the first 4 minutes will be wild and that will probably be the best chance Conor has of major damage. Conor does have two weaknesses Aldo can exploit: a) he’s a southpaw with a wide stance, leaving his lead leg vulerable to Aldo’s devastating leg kicks and b) his wrestling looked shoddy vs Chad Mendes (but will Aldo commit to going to the ground to use his black belt jiu-jitsu?).

This is just more of a “math” play as I feel we are getting odds on a fighter in essentially, a coin flip fight. Also noted: Conor McGregor looked like shit at the weigh-ins yesterday….but he always seems to look like Skelator on weigh-in day. If this fight goes into the later rounds, that might effect his punching power and performance. But this is essentially a “home game” for Conor as the Irish have been mobbing Vegas since Friday.

NCAA BONUS:

ARMY v NAVY Under 50 -115

UFC and NBA Friday Night

Posted in Basketball, UFC - 2015/12/11 - 0 Comment

UFC:

Barboza vs Ferguson: “No, fight does not go to distance” at -130. With the shorter cage at The Chelsea in the Cosmopolitan, and the explosive power these guys have, it won’t last long IMO.

I also like Lauzon v Dunham “No, fight does not to go distance” at +120, and Edgar by decision at +110 (I think him and Chad cancel each other out, even with the cage).

NBA:

Celtics +5.5

Celtics ML +180

TEASER: Celtics +5.5 and Over 215

I think the Celtics keep it close tonight, and even possibly win. They are relatively healthy (minus Smart), and have won two in a row. They actually are second in the league, behind the Warriors, in points win margin per game. Also, the ESPN probability indicator claims that GSW has a 68% of a chance to win tonight, and that is the lowest probability they have for the rest of 2015 (the rest is over 75%). Klay Thompson is also banged up with a sprained ankle. If there is any night they lose with the rest of the schedule in 2015; it is probably this one.

I bet every Irish donk in Vegas for the McGregor fight is taking the Celtics tonight at +5.5

Monday Night Hedge

Posted in NFL - 2015/12/07 - 0 Comment

We have the Washington Professional Football Team 6.5 season under, and they are now at 5 wins…so we are taking the Washington -3.5 (+120). So this now means I have to bet them every game, which I absolutely hate myself for. What do I do this to myself, having to be forced to bet on Kirk Cousins on a Monday Night vs Matt Cassell? The good news is that this line has gone down from 4.5 to 3.5….and a hilarious side note, thanks to the Giants gag job yesterday, if Dallas wins….”so you are saying there is a chance” is in play (along with the Pats’ gag job vs the Eagles yeterday).