CFL and Euro 2016 Leans
Posting my Euro 2016 leans for Saturday as I won’t be able to do them tomorrow as I will be at Foxwoods for the $400 PPC Multiflight NLHE tournament.
Wales -105
Wales drew Northern Ireland, so this will be a contested darby of sorts but N.Ireland is the lowest ranked team in the tournament and only scored 2 goals vs a Ukrainian side with a swiss cheese defense. They will pack it in and make it tough on the Dragons, but I expect Wales to pull it out (that’s what she said) in the end. I also like the 1-0 exacta, with Bale scoring the goal (I am kicking myself at not taking him as Golden Goal scorer at 18-to-1. It’s basically down to him and Spain’s Morata).
Croatia +165 and Over 2 (-105)
Croatia is not the most fit, but man have they looked impressive in the final third even with their bench guys. Just a well run, clinical operation and a dark horse pick to win it all, especially if Modric can get back to being somewhat fit. Their opponent, Portugal, has more individual talent, but in each of their games they have gone asleep at the wheel defensively, as well as commit dumb turnovers and fouls in their own end. I am surprised the Over is only at 2 with low juice; I’d say it should be 2.5 with higher juice so we are getting value here. This should be a fun, open game.
CFL:
Winnipeg -2 (-110)
First of all, h/t to buffaloholdem over at Twitter for his CFL thoughts. It’s become quite a place to find lots of value. Who knew 3 down football was so profitable!
https://twitter.com/buffaloholdem/status/745966812509118465
There’s DFS CFL now as well (and yes, rouges *do* count) so he’s a good source if you need any tips before places down your bets.
Here’s another nugget of CFL wisdom for the year:
#CFL teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 414-355 ATS (53.8%) since 2005. (h/t @Bet_Labs)
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) June 22, 2016
NBA Finals Game 7
Warriors -5
Apparently, the Warriors’ Steph Curry’s wife, Ayesha Curry, also agreed with my reasoning on why I took the Cavs in Game 6: the NBA is Riggtastic!
Although, I do see Game 7 being on the “up and up” tonight….and if anything, the Warriors will be the ones getting the calls and home cooking, especially thanks to Steve Kerr pulling a Phil Jackson, “Here’s this blank check, I am going to criticize the officials in the post game presser” move to sway them. A few other reasons I like the Warriors: granted they have had some injury issues, but they have been the best and most consistent team all year and need to win tonight to place themselves in NBA history as one of the greatest all time teams. There is pressure on them, but also Cleveland, since that town hasn’t had a sports team win a title since World War II. I expect Curry and Thompson to play balls out tonight, and the Cavs to not shoot as well as they have the last two games over expectation, especially due to the one week turnaround of flying back and forth to Oakland. That can take a lot from a road team. I think LeBron will have to score 40+ for the Cavs to have a shot tonight; he’s been excellent these last two games but at some point the rubber you’d think hits the road. The Bogut injury for the Warriors is the one “bear” case I have against them (you want big men in the middle of the paint to clog LeBron’s heavy drives; Kendrick Perkins was so key to this when he was with the Celtics vs LeBron’s Cavs from 2008-2011). Andre Iguodala is their best defender for LeBron and is banged up, but is expected to play tonight.
The Warriors are at home and home teams are 15-3 in NBA Finals’ Game 7s. So we got that in our favor as well. Well that, and Cleveland choking in a big spot, because that is what LeBron does and that is what that city does (minus UFC Heavywieght Champ Stipe Miocic).
EURO BONUS:
Swiss vs France Under 2
The Swiss just need a result today to get in. I expect France to play their bench and this to be a milquetoast game, probably ending 1-0.
NBA Finals Game 6
Cavs -2
I think the Cavs pull it out at home tonight and force a Game 7 (which I also think they lose). First, I always like taking Game 6 teams when they are at home and down 3-2 and need a win to force a Game 7 (hockey is the exception; that sports is just different). Although it would be classic Cleveland to lose a title on their home floor, you know the NBA is going to pull out all of the stops, referee wise, to try and make a Game 7 possible. Also, I can see Irving/LeBron hitting 21 on the blackjack table again and shooting the ball well one more time before variance, and the back-and-forth road trip from Cleveland to Oakland, catches up to them.
EURO BONUS:
WALES ML +550 and DRAW v ENG +285
These are both hedges as I have England, Wales as the group order. If Wales get a result today that probably gets flipped so we can take the middle.
Northern Ireland/Ukraine Under 2.5 (-110)
EURO 2016 Preview
Winner:
Germany +450
Germany’s talent is the best across the board, and they are relatively fit. They are coming off the World Cup win in Brazil and this tournament is a start of the last generation of players from that team like Mueller, Neuer, etc.
Belgium +900
Belgium was the #1 ranked team in FIFA at one point, and they also have a ton of young and up and coming talent that will be a force. There only weakness to me is at the wingbacks position. They are strong every where else and at +900 for a top 5 team in the world, it’s good value IMO.
Single bets:
Wales Points Over 3.5 (-105)
Wales was impressive in the qualifying round, and Bale was the second best player during those games (behind Poland’s Lewandowski). They also drew a good group and have winnable games versus Russia and Slovakia.
Group B Prop – 1. England 2. Wales +350
I think they both get out of their group in this order. This could be England’s year (+800 to win it all)to finally make a push with all of the exciting young talent they have. Their manager Roy Hodgson, who is known as conservative, is playing a 4-3-3…even he knows he has good talent this year. Also good news for England: the group stage does not have penalty shootouts.
Group E Winner: Belgium -105
Their group: Italy (who is in a turnover year), Ireland (I love the lads, but they have looked like shit in the friendlies leading up to EURO2016. Roy Keane wanted to kill the players after losing in a friendly to Belarus.), and Sweden (who is the wild card in this group; it all depends if Zlatan can turn on the throwback beast mode).
Group C Prop: 1. Germany 2. Poland +135
Germany to Reach the Final +175
My final four: Germany, England, Belgium, and Poland.
Top Goalscorer – Robert Lewandowski +1400
Poland was the best “in form” team during its qualifiers. Lewandowski averaged a goal a game during those prelims (the only other player to do so was Bale).
Lou’s plays:
Adding these as Lou just had a kid and hasn’t had time to post. I’m also taking on of his leans on Italy as well:
Italy to NOT make it out of the Group Stage +400
Austria 40-1 to win it all
Copa America Tuesday
Costa Rica 0.5 (+120)
Only 38% of the public is on Costa Rica, a team that always gives the US trouble. The US is having its own issues right now with form and Klinsmann might be out the door if they don’t win/draw a match in this group.
PARLAY (+700): Costa Rica/USA Draw (+415) and Colombia (-125)
Euro pre-tournament leans to come later in the week.
UFC 199
Dan Henderson +280
This is probably his last fight. He’s from Cali, and the fight is in LA. I expect him to come out on his sword and try to KO Lombard.
Dominick Cruz by decision -165
I think Cruz’s head movement and defensive boxing are some of the best in MMA. He has the reach advantage and height advantage on Uriah Faber. Faber is also one of the more durable veterans in the UFC and rarely gets KO’d. I think Cruz outpoints him and gets the decision in 5.
No, fight does not go the distance – Poirier vs Green +140
These two have talked shit all week, and Poirier is a “KO or KO’d” type of fighter. They won;t be looking for just a win here; they wanna fuck each other up.
PARLAY +420:
Cruz -400
Rockhold -700
Henderson +280
UFC 198
Werdum -150
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +195
PARLAY @ +236:
Werdum -150
Cyborg -1200
Moraes -450
Lineker -155
