Miracle Covers

MLB Over/Unders

As is tradition, the Lou and Pat Pub Crawl bet, the competition where the only losers are about a dozen bar staffs.  Slight wrinkle this year in that one of us never posted the totals in early March, so the numbers being worked with are balls-to-the-first pitch wall this year.  Let’s get to it.

10) Baltimore Orioles Under 79.5  The lack of depth on this team is somewhat astonishing.  Massive contracts appear to have drained this team of a proper bench, and if there is a team out there that could use one, this is it.  Adam Jones has shown slow but discernible signs of decline the last couple years.  Wieters, whose arm is responsible for stopping crime, has a TJ in the rear view and has hit a total of 13 home runs in the last 2 yrs.  Bullpen is a plus, but that is wiped out by the ugliness of the rotation.  This team would be a fun bet against anyone in a series but will not withstand the grind.

9) Texas Rangers Over 83.5  Roughnod Odor’s 2nd half of ’15.  Cole Hamels heading the rotation.  Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland as a fat, bi-racial monster at 1st base.  There is a lot to really like about the Rangers this season.  Tolleson is not the sexiest closer but seems very capable.  Ian Desmond and Adrian Beltre with things to prove.  As seemingly always, the X Factor on the Rangers’ will be starting pitching, where I am cautiously optimistic this year.

8) Los Angeles Dodgers Under 89.5  Would love to make this my 10 Pointer but I’m scared of their money.  Wish no man ill-health, but if Kershaw goes down for a significant stretch this number is instantly unattainable.  Start the season with a whopping 8 souls on the DL.  Needed plus years from Ethier, Kendrick, Jansen, Turner, and Pederson to hit 92 LY.  Greinke leaving doesn’t necessarily mean bad things, the fact that he stays in division and is replaced by Kazmir does.  Bullpen outside of Jansen is not good.

7) St Louis Cardinals Under 87.5  No one really knows what the hell is going on at 1B, as highlighted and underlined by Matt Holliday getting some run-outs there in March.  Achilles, elbow surgery, abdomen pull; all injuries Adam Wainwright has dealt with over the past couple years.  Matheny is fine but occasionally comes across as the idiot in the room.  Can’t hate on Rosenthall too much but his lack of pitch movement is Benitezien.  Peralta, even when he returns, cannot be expected to produce power numbers.

6) Seattle Mariners Over 82.5  James Paxton and Nate Karns in and of themselves are not a reason to get overly amped as a Mariner fan.  The key here is these two battled in Spring Training for the #5 spot in the rotation.  Very good news.  The 2015 team was loaded with under-performers, like borderline anyone not named Seager.  And now no Fernando Rodney!

5) Chicago White Sox Over 80.5  The 3 S’s.  Big fan of this team’s bench.  Saladino, Shuck, and Sands are all capable.  LaRoche incident end result?  A kinda sucky hitter is gone freeing up at bats and money.  The bullpen is now healthy and solid.  And maybe, Ventura will have started to figure things out by now.

4) Cincinnati Reds Over 70.5  For years a smart bet has been the Reds Under.  Consequently this number seems to have been driven a bit low.  Mesoraco is back healthy, as is Cozart.  Losing Frazier hurts, but 24 yr old Eugenio Suarez eases the pain if his level of play replicates or surpasses 2015 totals.  Iglesias and DeSclafani are also young and kinda fun at the top of the rotation.  Bullpen seems adequate.

3) New York Mets Over 89.5  Fuck you, Utley.

2) Cleveland Indians Over 85.5  Very cool infield.  Legitimate rotation

1) Pittsburgh Pirates Under 86.5  I know Lou has this, whatever he says.

2016 MLB Over/Unders

A tradition like many, many others. Each year Pat and I attempt to pick 10 teams to exceed or elude their published Vegas win total with varying degrees of success. Winner gets a pub crawl that will likely never happen in reality. We need to change the prize to a good bottle of whiskey or something. Confidence scoring. Forward.

10 Points – Oakland OVER 75.5
9) Pittsburgh UNDER 86.5
8) Baltimore UNDER 79.5
7) Seattle OVER 82.5
6) Cleveland OVER 85.5
5) Miami OVER 78.5
4) LA Dodgers OVER 88.5
3) St. Louis UNDER 87.5
2) Tampa OVER 82.5
1) San Diego UNDER 73.5

If I was doing tiers, we would have Oakland and Pittsburgh in tier 1, Baltimore and Seattle in 2, Cleveland, Miami and the Dodgers in 3 and everyone else in tier 4. I think the AL West will be a bloodbath with all five teams having a legitimate chance to win the division, kind of like the AL East in recent seasons only without the pervasive mediocrity. Cubs seem likely to run away with the Central but I was scared off of their move from 90 to 93.5 on the totals so I’m being somewhat derivative with unders on PIT and STL. Miami gets on partly due to getting 40 games versus the Phillies and Braves.

Division Winner Guesses:

AL East – Toronto
AL Central – Cleveland
AL West – Oakland

NL East – Miami
NL Central – Chicago
NL West – Los Angeles