NFL Week 5 Leans
OK, onto trying to predict and profit off of some more shitty NFL football this weekend:
Minnesota -7 (+105)
This has now moved to -110. Texans go into Minnesota reeling on defense after losing JJ Watt for the year, and their offense has been inconsistent at best, especially on the road. While Minnesota doesn’t have the best *talent* on defense, it’s still pretty damn good, and they have the best coach “in form” in Mike Zimmer, while being are relatively healthy. I’d rather have 11 good players, in form and healthy, as supposed to 11 Hall of Famers who are banged up…when it comes to a defensive unit. Also, Sam Bradford has played damn good football since getting traded (for what I still think is too many draft picks) to the Vikings, and at +1600 at MVP, it’s actually not a bad play. I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence, but it’s definitely in play because the Vikings are probably the #1 seed in the NFC, if we project it out from today. It’s like the Vikings, who lost all pro players at numerous positions, are like the ultimate “Ewing Theory” team. Their only real weakness is the kicker. I should of taken them 10-to-1 to win the NFL when I had the chance in the preseason.
As a last side note: Mike Zimmer vs the spread in the last two years: 28-5. And the Vikings, and their games, are one of the lowest volume bets in all of football.
Buffalo at LA Rams Under 40 (-105)
This projects to be a rock fight. The LA Rams last home game ended 9-6. They have a top 3 defense, and the Bills (coming off a shutout of the Brady-less Pats, 16-0) have a top 10 defense. Both offenses can run the ball, but have a hard time throwing it because, well, it’s the fucking Bills and the fucking Rams. Neither of these teams haven’t thrown the ball since Jim Kelly and Kurt Warner left their respective teams. Additionally, in the Rams’ new stadium at the “old as balls” LA Coliseum, is shaped like a bowl instead of a cascade. This is significant because when it’s hot in LA (who has had a hotter than usual summer and fall), there’s no shade for fans (sounds like a great time!) or players alike. 88 degree weather on 1pm on Sunday will create fatigue, which creates fail. Hopefully it also doesn’t result in defensive and special teams fail touchdowns.
Washington +4 (-115)
The Washington football team goes into Baltimore this week for a darby. Someone wins this game by a field goal. I don’t know who, and I don’t care, because I will probably watch less than 5 minutes of these shitty, flawed teams playing. I’m making bets out of spite; that’s how disgruntled I am with the NFL this year.
TEASER:
PIT -7.5
DAL +2
MIN -7
MLB BONUS:
Red Sox @ Cleveland Over 7 (-120)
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
MLB Playoffs Phase 2
Now that the Wild Card is passed us, here are some of my preliminary thoughts for MLB Series prices and a lean for tomorrow.
Divisional Series prices @LVSuperBook
Red Sox -150
Indians +130Jays EVEN
Rangers -120Dodgers -165
Nats +145Giants +240
Cubs -280— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 6, 2016
Toronto vs Texas Goes to 5 Games +130
This is going to be a really fun series. During last year’s epic ALDS tilt: Toronto fans threw beer at a baby, Jose Batista had the best bat flip after a HR in history, and there were a number of bench clearing moments during in what I think is the best Bottom of the 7th in the history of baseball. This year had the sports fight of the year between Jose Batista and Rougned Odor. This thing has to go 5; the baseball gods dictate it.
Chicago Cubs -260
Thanks to SF winning the NL WIld Card play-in last night, we now start hedging our SF Giants to win the NL at +650 (now at +300). The Giants have slightly better pitching than the Cubs, the prohibitive favorite to win the whole thing (+240; +115 to win the NL). I think the Cubs take this in 4 because Bumgarner, the best pitcher in the series, is slated to pitch only one game (unless it goes 5) and the Giants lineup stinks. This price settles in around -260 online, while -280 live as the Cub money pours in from Chicago fans who love to chase history while making a profit. Home field, a decent bullpen/manager, and a great lineup should see the Cubs through to the NLCS #reversejinx
And a lean for tomorrow:
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
It’s Scherzer vs Kershaw, but both lineups are pretty good, the bullpens pretty “meh”, and I am more betting that Clayton Kershaw pukes all over himself in a playoff game again.
MLB 2016 Postseason early leans
Tor vs BAL Under 8.5 (-115)
NYM vs SF Under 6 (-115)
SF Giants to win NL +650
And for those of you curious (and you know who you are), a Red Sox vs Cubs WOrld Series parlay is +600. I put a fiver down for shits and giggles, but the only reason I didn’t seriously take it is because one team has a shoddy closer and the other has a shoddy history.
NFL Week 4
Put up a big ole donut last week; glad I got it out of the way! There are usually 1-2 weeks a year where one’s bets get cleaned out like losing chips on a roulette table. But I am confident that we can get back on track this week.
It really has been “bizarro year” so far. NFL teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 7-3 ATS this season, Rookie QBs have a W-L of 6-1 and are 7-0 ATS, and if you bet the ML underdog on every game so far this year, you’d be up 10.5 units!!!1111 Usually, if that ratio is at around -10% to -20%, that means it’s a good year for underdogs…nevermind an ROI of +70% or more!
Cleveland +9 (-120)
The Browns are in Washington this week and this line has cratered to around -7 or -7.5. WR Tyrelle Pryor’s play for the Browns has been one of the few bright spots for the team. They lost last week’s game in OT thanks to 3 missed FGs due to a backup kicker; the regular starter got hurt on Friday during a WARM UP. How in the hell does one injure himself in a warm up? This being said, Cody Parker played well last week and the Washington Football Team is flaky in terms of consistent performance during games, never mind week to week. I don’t know how one could be a fan of either of these teams without having a heart attack.
New York Jets +3 (-130)
The juice is high here, but lots to like about the Jets this week, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 6 INTs last week (we have some candidates for now what a 6 INT game is now called: I like the “The Dirty Fitz”, but reader, Bills fan, and fellow contributor Nick also said that the “Fitz 6” is also the more stronger choice). Upside? The Jets offense and Fitz can’t play any worse than that. Russell Wilson is questionable with a knee sprain and didn’t finish the game last week; I drafted him in the 3rd round in one of my leagues and I’ve benched the guy for 2 straight games. Thomas Rawls is out with injury at RB, so the Seahawks had to sign 1st Round bust C.J. Spiller off the street (I also had to pick him up in the same league; I hate running bad in fantasy). The OL has been terrible for Seattle and the Jets have a top 3 defensive line. The game is at 1pm, and West Coast teams due tend to struggle with that (I should of listened to Cousin Sal last week RE: BUF v ARI). I expect a low scoring game, and might throw the Jets in a teaser with the under (40) on a cold, and maybe rainy, day in New Jersey.
Tampa Bay -3.5 (-115)
Trevor Siemian has looked OK so far as QB for the Broncos, leading his team off to a 3-0 start. The under I have at 9 is in jeopardy, but at some point you’d have to think a market correction occurs with this team. While he has good command of the offense, he’s also wildly inconsistent with his accuracy at times; the Bengals last week dropped several interceptions. Denver’s defense has not been as good against the run as they were last year. The Broncos are getting 88% of the money on the road here against a Tampa team that has shown it can throw the ball down the field and keep games close despite lack of depth at RB and in the secondary.
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville Over 49 (-110)
This game is in London; the poor UK fans. That being said, the fail from both of these teams should provide short fields and easy scores for both teams. The over has hit 70% of the time in the London games…this could be due to the teams in the game, but also the fact I think the long flight and trip creates dead legs which cuts into the cardio of the defenders as the game goes along.
TEASER (+140):
IND/JAX Over 49
HOU -5
ARI -7
CFL BONUS:
Ottawa Redblacks +5.5 (-110)
Week 3 NFL Lines
Arizona -4 (-105) @ Buffalo
Yes, it is an early 1pm game on the road for the West Coast Arizona Cardinals….but Buffalo is reeling right now, just firing their offensive coordinator (who was the highest paid OC in all of football) and probably not having Sammy Watkins available as he is battling an injury and was just downgraded from questionable to doubtful.
Carolina -7 (-110) vs Minnesota
Minnesota will be without the following former first round picks due to injury: RB Adrian Peterson, OT Kalil, DT Sharif Floyd, and of course QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Floyd injury is the most significant; the Vikings have a hard time moving the ball as it is and Carolina can just play the inside running game much easier to win the field position battle. I just don’t see how the Vikings score enough points to keep this one close.
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-110)
This one will be a yawner. The Rams best offense is their defense, and the Bucs will be without RB Doug Martin.
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Philadelphia
I think the Eagles good start comes down to earth this week. They are a little banged up and the Pittsburgh offense is playing well. Rookie QBs also usually don’t do that well against Pittsburgh’s front 7 the first time they face them.
San Francisco +9 (-105) @ Seattle
Is Seattle 3 points better than anybody at this point? Their OL and offense is in shambles. This is also somewhat of a hedge against my 49ers under season bet (5.5 wins).
TEASER (+160):
DAL -7
MIA -10
CAR -7
CFL BONUS:
Redblacks -5.5 (-105)
UFC BONUS:
Antonio “Big Foot” Silva +385
Parlay at +780: Antonio Silva (+385), Pepey (-140), Erick Silva (+105), Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200)
Week 2 NFL Leans
NY Giants -4.5 (-105) vs New Orleans
Odell Beckham Jr. and Shepard should have 500 yards between them in this game vs a poor Saints defense. New Orleans’ offense isn’t as prolific on the road as it is in the dome, although the weather in NY should cooperate. The NYG CB play looked improved last week from any game that they played last year. I hate taking Eli, but I am pretty confident the Giants take it down here. The only question whether it’s a blowout or a close game.
Browns +7 (-115) vs Baltimore
This is now at 6.5. The Browns lost RGIII last week, who looked terrible and it goes to show what I know because I’d thought he’d be good for them (although no Josh Gordon hurts). Josh McCown is at least an OK professional QB (as Gowin says, “he’s a McCown…it’s like a “Niekro” in MLB). Baltimore will be missing Perriman again this game, and their offense isn’t great as it is and I except most of their games this year to be boring ass rock fights. Home teams are 55% against the spread in their home opener since 2003. I think the Browns keep it close but lose the game in the spectacular, soul crushing fashion that only the Cleveland Browns can do.
Jacksonville +3 (+105) @ San Diego
The Chargers just lost WR Keenan Allen and blew a 24-3 lead in the second half to the Chiefs who beat them in OT. They come home to a fanbase that doesn’t care much for them now as they are most likely moving to LA. And, it will be pretty hot in SD for this game but the Jags play in that weather too so they shouldn’t be too phased by it. This will probably be a one or two point game no one watches (except for those that know who you are).
Titans @ Lions Over 47.5 (-110)
These defenses stink, and both QBs are disposal machines. Mariota threw 2 TAINTs (TD After Interception) to the other team last week.
TEASER @ +240:
NYG -4.5
NYG/NO Over 53.5
Lions -6
DAL +3
NFL Week 1 Leans
Here are my leans for Week 1:
Browns +4.5 (-115) @ Philadelphia
This is now at +4. And me and Lou discussed on the podcast, we think Philadelphia is really going to stink this year, especially starting a banged up rookie QB in Week 1. They are a young team who isn’t 3 points better than anyone at the moment, nevermind the lowly Browns. Also, RGIII has looked pretty good in pre-season and with new coach and offensive guru Hue Jackson, the Browns should be able to move the ball and throw it downfield. This should be either a close, entertaining game or a close, boring game that sets the sport of American football back 5 years.
Minnesota at Tennessee Under 41 (-105)
With a second year QB (Mariota), and an old backup QB (Hill), and two teams whose wide receiving corps have an average fantasy football draft ranking of 9th round or lower, I expect alot of two and three tight end sets and an over/under of plays with 3 WR sets at 25.5 (the average NFL game, teams run around 110-125 plays). There is a hint that new MIN QB Sam Bradford might actually play in this one, despite being there for like, a week. Titans TE Delanie Walker is questionable with an illness, and he’s a big part of the Titans’ zone read playaction offense. And the game is played on natural grass. This should be the day’s most boring game.
Oakland at New Orleans Over 51 (-110)
Both teams have tremendous offensive talent, all healthy because it’s Week 1. Drew Brees, who just signed a new 2 year deal, does way better at home in the dome than he does on the road. So does his offensive teammates. New Orleans’ defense is the worst in the league, and Oakland’s is about average. This should be the most exciting game of the day.
Baltimore -3 (-115) vs Buffalo
Buffalo’s defense is missing DT Darius due to suspension and WR Sammy Watkins is banged up. They also have some questions at free safety, an important role in Rex Ryan’s scheme. From Greg Bedard below:
There is no more crucial position in Rex Ryan’s defense than the free safety, who is the nerve center for all communication and checks. Graham had his share of issues last season after converting from cornerback. Communication was a big issue for the defense last season, Ryan’s first in Buffalo, and that has to become a strength for the unit to take the next step.
I expect Baltimore to test the safeties early and often with Joe Flacco’s deep ball prowless; they also get some WRs back from injury (Perriman, Smith) they didn’t have last year. Buffalo also will have a hard time exploiting the Ravens’ weakness, CB depth, as their QB Tyrod Taylor is more of a zone read QB as supposed to a guy who can dink and dunk with precision accuracy. Also, Taylor was a Raven, so the front 7 had a good look at his running style during his time there. Betting the Ravens at home has done me well over the years, so going to stick with the trend on this one.
TEASER @ +330:
GB/JAX Over 48
Hou -6
KC -7
SEA -10.5
UFC BONUS:
Mickey Gall -300 (now at -400)
So Mickey Gall, who is 2-0 in his young career (with two submissions) faces former WWE wrestler Phil “CM Punk” Brooks this Saturday at UFC 203. I bet this the minute it came out, and as you can see, the action on Gall has poured in. It might even go to -420 (lol) before the fight. CM Punk, who has been training MMA for the last two years, has never fought a professional or amateur MMA fight and has only done a little Kempo in terms of formal martial arts training. The UFC is really only putting him out there to sell a PPV. According to MMA journalist Luke Thomas, CM Punk didn’t technically meet Ohio athletic commission’s stated requirements for licensure (yet they gave him one anyways; who says money doesn’t influence politics!). CM Punk has also had a hard time cutting weight to 170 (which he hasn’t weighed since high school!), which is always a bad sign at 37 years of age. At 23, Mickey Gall is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu from the Jim Miller camp in NJ, one known for its world class rear naked chokes and guillotines. That would be a prop to take the day of the fight (I would guess Gall to win by submission would be at around +150; I’ll probably take that too). If Mickey Gall loses this, I might retire from MMA betting as I clearly don’t know anything (or, the kid takes a paid dive and the sport is rigged).
PARLAY: Jessica Eye (-145) and Mickey Gall (-300) and Werdum (-300) and GGG (Boxing, -600) @ +240
2016 NFL Over/Unders
My Confidence is low but the picks are high. Not enough rooting for failure for my liking:
5) Jets Over 8
4) Chiefs Over 9.5
3) Falcons Under 7.5
2) Vikings Under 9.5
1) Lions Over 7
Also notable and not in any order:
Bengals Over 9.5
Washington Under 7.5
Saints Over 7
Rams Over 7.5
-Lou
2016 NFL Preview
It’s here, the initial podcast! Sean and Lou open up to discuss NFL Division Winners and Win Totals for the 2016 NFL Season:
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miraclecoverscom-2016-nfl-preview
UFC 202 Leans
Cortney Casey +110
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson wins by KO, TKO, or DQ -150
Nate Diaz by submission +200
Nate Diaz by Decision +650
Conor McGregor by Decision +500
Diaz v McGregor Over Rounds 2.5 +110
PARLAY @ +275:
Cortney Casey+110
Cody Garbrandt -500
Anthony Johnson -205
CFL TEASER BONUS:
TOR +3
HAMILTON -10.5
