Memorial Under
9, 8.5, 8.5, 9, 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9, 11, 9, 8. I think I got them all. If I was a father I would insert the obligatory “They threw out the 11 from the Ukrainian judge” bad dad joke (BDJ). These are over/unders for today. I can honestly say I have never seen anything like this, not even a 7.5 in the bunch. In order…
First thought, it’s Memorial Day, a lot of folks home with time to gamble. Heavier action than usual, “life’s too short for unders,” jack the lines and exploit.
Second thought, it’s Memorial Day, usually a day off, bullpens will be tired from the weekend, Vegas is accounting for this.
Third thought, see if there is a Memorial Day phenomenon. Last 2 years there were some heavy game totals but 2016 total was 121, 2015 total 124.
Fourth thought, well let’s put in a wager.
Total Runs Scored MLB Under 140.5 +100
Happy Memorial Day. Get better, Tiger. (30-for-30 Title “Struggles on the Backside”)
****UPDATE****
Over gets smushed thanks to our friends in Houston and Toronto. 154 if my math is right. The real lame part is Unders beat Overs 9-6 on the day. But the overs were over the rainbow. Not sure if that tells us anything interesting. Also Update on Tiger blowing a 0.00. Maybe he’s not in so rough shape. BDJ, BOOM!
UFC Fight Night (Day?) in Stockholm
Omari Akhmedov +195
Parlay +395:
Alexander Gustafsson-300
Pedro Munhoz -752
Omari Akhmedov +195
NHL thoughts tomorrow!
NHL Game 7
Pens v Senators Under 5 (EVEN)
Since 2010, the UNDER in Game 7s is 21-9 (70%)
I expect Sens coach Guy Boucher to “pack it in” with the neutral zone trap, as he did as Tampa coach during one of the greatest hockey games I’ve ever watched, a 1-0 loss to the Boston Bruins in 2011’s ECF Game & (Bruins’ Nathan Horton scored a goal in the 3rd). Also, goalies Craig Anderson and Marc Andre-Fleury are streaky but have the ability to have a great game at any moment. Game 7’s tend to be tight and I’ll stick to that trend tonight.
Lines That Make you Go Hmm
This is a category that has always interested me. Today’s entry…
Yankees vs Royals Under 9 (-118)
Pineda vs Vargas
To be fair, the Royals’ bats have shown recent signs of life, the Yankees have routinely proven an ability to mash, and Jason Vargas has been pitching light-years beyond his career norms. Still, this number seems high, and America agrees with 83% taking the Under (according to pregame.com). Hypothetical 100 bucks AGAINST the expected. 1 hundo on Over 9 (+107).
****UPDATE****
18 Total Runs. Over hit before game’s halfway point. Hmm indeed.
UFC 211
Maia vs Masvidal Over Rounds 1.5 -240
Yair Rodriguez EVEN
Parlay +240:
Antigulov-425
Jedrzeczyk -180
Rodriguez EVEN
Canelo vs Chavez Jr, Kentucky Derby 2017
It’s a big day and a big weekend for sports gambling! Today is the Kentucky Derby, followed by a Cinco de Mayo showdown between two of the greater Mexican boxers in the sports, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Julio Caesar Chavez Jr.
BOXING:
Julio Caesar Chavez Jr, known to miss weight, came in exactly at 164 lbs and while he looked pretty gaunt, it wasn’t the worst weight cut in the world for him as his big problem isn’t so much eating as it is much weed (it doesn’t make him a bad guy!). Alvarez is on a tear and is coming down in weight to take on his Mexican rival, which should take away some of his punching power as he usually has waned in both power and output when he’s fought at these lower weights. Chavez Jr is very much a defensive boxer like his dad, although he doesn’t have the ability to be a savage like his father did despite, IMO, having slightly better athletic attributes. I see this one going the distance, so I am taking “Fight Goes the Distance – YES” at -120, and a play on Alvarez by points +125, as Alvarez’s modus operandi is to put on a good fight for the fans in this non-title showdown and get that “W” to build up momentum for his eventual super fight with GGG in 2018.
KENTUCKY DERBY
Classic Empire 4-1
J.Boys Echo 28-1
NHL BONUS:
PIT v WSH Under 5 (+120)
Joshua vs Klitschko
Joshua vs Klitschko
Over Rounds 8.5 -115
In what is the most anticipated heavyweight bout in quite some time, the UK’s Anthony Joshua (-250) has a chance to go from wonder prospect to the baddest man on the planet vs veteran Wladimir Klitschko (+200) today at Wembley Stadium. Klitschko, coming off a decision loss to Tyson “I love cocaine” Fury, has always been known to be a prudent fighter. Joshua is a KO artist, but he’s never faced anyone with the defensive boxing of Klitschko. Klitschko often has a stigma of putting on bad fights because of his methodical approach, and his ability to hold guys and not allow them to find their jabbing range. I foresee this one going past 9 rounds, and maybe even the distance, as Joshua has yet to fight a boxer of Klitschko’s chin and pedigree. I fancy Joshua however in a decision (+500), as Klitschko is literally on the Back 9 at 17 and is on his way out…..but his iron chin and guile should see him through to the judge’s scorecards.
NHL:
Senators vs Rangers Over 5 (+105)
NHL Monday
Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105)
PARLAY: Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105) and BOS v OTT Under 5 (-125) at +200
