College FB Stuff
Over/Unders.
There are some teams to focus on throughout this year.
The Good – OK St (9), Auburn (8.5), Miami FL(9)
AND
The Interesting – ASU (5), Kansas (3), Mich St (6.5), Miss St (5.5), Nebraska (7), Ole Miss (5.5), Oregon St (5.5)
Notice I am posting this after the season has already started for a few teams. I am getting these numbers from a website entitled “Last Minute College Football Team Wins.” This is me screaming at a bunch of horses starting out from the gate “WAIT! COME BACK! DO ANY OF YOU HAVE MEDICAL CONDITIONS?!?!”
The offenses for Oklahoma St and Auburn should be very good. Auburn has Baylor transfer Stidham who many believe will be the difference maker to put Auburn back in the SEC Champ conversation. Miami allowed just 18.5 points per game last season, and they may well be better in 2017…all 8 defenders who recorded at least six TFL and two sacks last season return. Just one bet from this group. Miami FL (over 9)
Did you know there is one team in college football that has had the worst passing D in the country two years in a row? ASU should be in for a lot of shoot-outs, former 5Star QB Blake Barnett transfers in. We are too late to bet on them but a 3 or 4 win season sounds believable, and we will bet accordingly ATS, lot of high scoring, non-covers like last night’s game. I am sure things have improved since, but as of mid May ASU had ZERO recruit commitments for 2018. This looks like a program with a bad trajectory. Speaking of bad trajectories, everybody is getting arrested and/or suspended at Mich St. We will take Mich St (under 6.5)
Kansas @ 3 is insanely tempting. Great DLine stuff, their new OC was co-OC @ TCU during their renaissance. But I think ultimately we are just going to bet them on specific match-ups. They lose a ton of talent in secondary. Bill Connelly notes “massive turnover in the secondary is the strongest predictor of defensive regression.” Nevertheless expect to see Kansas as a pick frequently ATS.
One of the horses I was screaming at is Oregon St, too late to do anything with them but expect them to get better as the year goes on. The “upstart Beavers suddenly have depth at multiple positions” as RotoWorld points out. They lost a bunch of close coin flip games last year, RB Nall could be a beast this year. We will have bets with them moving forward.
Not much insight into Nebraska except they seem quite thin @ WR. This was before Keyshawn Jr was busted for weed. They had a very late decommit who wound up going to Wash St. They also lose a very good, experienced corner Chris Jones due to surgery. Nebraska (under 7)
Who the Hell knows what Ole Miss will do. Shea Patterson should put up great numbers and I would lean towards their over, similar situation with Miss St. Everything you read is positive. New DC is a guy with consistent top20 Defenses in the past when @ Louisville and UGA. A quote regarding their LB Green, “(Green) won’t just take a starting role because of his age, he’s earning it with his play.” Good stuff. Miss St (over 5.5)
Mayweather vs McGregor
The shitshow is finally here. I wish I could bet the over on when the fight actually starts……these things usually take forever to actually start it probably goes past 11:30pm on the East Coast.
As for the fight itself……as much as these two say they will try and KO each other like savages….I think both will actually cancel each other out for a bit while they figure out each other’s patterns. Floyd is older but wiser, and I think he’ll dance and hold and stall for the first 4 rounds at least, and try to see how Conor handles “deep water”. I think this fight will go the same way Hatton vs Floyd did, minus the possibility of a KO because Conor is a better athlete than Hatton and Floyd doesn’t have the power that he did in 2006 at age 40. And considering Floyd Round Overs have made money for us (and hopefully for you!), I am gonna stay with that plan.
So what I like for tonight:
Mayweather vs McGregor Over Rounds 9.5 +140
And as for the pick:
Mayweather -450
I just don’t think Floyd loses a decision in Vegas, even if Conor knocks him down. I can also see Conor quitting on the stool or maybe getting caught in the 11th or 12th round…and since he hasn’t even been in a boxing match before, it’s why I am apprehensive to take the distance prop at +215. But Floyd is so technical and does such a great job of staying out of the way of punches (there will be some great swing and miss gifs for this fight), I just don’t see these guys having this all out slug fest. Maybe a “hug fest” perhaps, as both Conor and Floyd will want to stay out of “hook” range and use the clinch to catch breath and slow things down.
As for 3 hedge props:
Conor McGregor wins in first 2 rounds +700
Conor McGregor wins in 3-4 rounds +700
Floyd Mayweather wins in 11-12 rounds +1200
Terence Crawford vs. Julius Indongo
Terence Crawford vs. Julius Indongo Over Rounds 9.5 -155
Crawford-Indongo will be only the fourth fight of the four-belt era in which all four major titles will be on the line in the same bout, and the winner will walk away as the undefeated, undisputed champion and the No. 1 fighter at 140 pounds. The only other time there was a four-belt unification fight was in 2004, when then-middleweight champion Bernard Hopkins put 3 belts up against Oscar De La Hoya’s only belt and knocked him out to unify the 160-pound division.
I think these guys have a 12 round war and a close decision, but taking the -155 as the 12 round prop’s line isn’t that big of a difference, and in case of anything funky (also most of the KO’s in these big matches have come in the later rounds, when a fighter is clearly behind and chasing a KO because he knows he’ll not win on the scorecards).
Should be a good match and a nice appetizer for next’s week MayMac shitshow, which we’ll have a write up on this site next week!
Premier League
Point Season Over/Unders. Im going to post these in the order they appear on Pinnacle. What is a bit odd is they have the teams not listed in alphabetical order, or order how they finished last year, or by their respective total lines. They look to have them in the order they expect the teams to finish in the table this year.
Man City 81.5 (over -126)
Man U 79.5 (under -171)
Chelsea 76.5
Tottenham 75.5 (under -159)
Arsenal 70.5 (over -146)
Liverpool 69.5 (over -155)
Everton 57.5
Leicister 49.5 (under -126)
Southampton 54.5
Newcastle 38.5 (over -190)
Crystal Palace 40.5 (over -137)
Stoke City 44.5 (under -140)
West Ham 47.5
Bournemouth 42.5 (over -127)
Swansea 38.5 (under -122)
West Brom 42.5 (under -150)
Burnley 35.5
Watford 37.5 (over -145)
Brighton 34.5 (over -156)
Huddersfield 28.5 (over -152)
CFL Week 8
BC Lions -2 (-105)
A rare back-to-back game in football! They beat Saskatchewan 30-15 last week and I think they also take care of business this time around, as in one thing watch the Roughriders, who I took last week, is that they are a very talented yet young team that is mistake prone. The juice is favorable so we’ll go with the Lions here.
TEASER:
OTT +1.5 and WPG/HAM Over 60 (-125)
DFS:
CFL Week 7
Roughriders +6.5 (-115)
TEASER: Roughriders +6.5 and HAM/EDM Over 56*
*I might take the over straight up in this one, but I am wary of the Ti-Cats (my preseason East winner pick #noose) as they have the honour of being the only team to score only 1 fucking point in a 60-1 loss to Calgary a few weeks ago. And yes, I had the over (63) in that game. Not bitter, tho.
Here’s my CFL DFS lineup this week; massively tilted I cannot select RB LaDarius Perkins on Edmonton who is not loaded into DraftKings as of yet. The Eskimos are 5-0 despite losing 3 RBs, their kicker, and long snapper to season ending injuries!
UFC 214
Brian Ortega +150
Donald Cerrone +130
Jones wins by 5 round decision EVEN
Cormier wins by 5 round decision +500
Parlay (-103):
Drew Dober -315
Cyborg -1100
Jon Jones -270
