GGG vs Canelo
GGG vs Canelo
I have no major thoughts tonight….it should be a great fight between two warriors who, I think, take it the distance. I am making a small play at -130 Fight Goes the Distance as I think this should be at around -175 or so. Canelo at +145 is OK value considering you are getting odds on an essential coinflip.
CFL BONUS:
Argos v Eskimos Over 52
Hilton Contest Picks Week 2
Texans +6.5
Jaguars +2.5
Colts +7
Steelers -5.5
49ers +14
Survivor: Raiders
Season: 4-1-0, 1-0
NFL Week 1
Cleveland +10
Betting more against Big Ben’s torrid numbers on the road as supposed to how good of a chance Cleveland has to keep it close.
Baltimore +3
Both of these teams, Ravens and Bengals, stink
Philadelphia -1
The Washington Football team stinks and Philly should be pretty good this year
SD/Denver Over 43
NYG vs DAL Over 49
TEASER +120:
Carolina -6
Houston -6
SD/Denver Over 43
DFS:
Hilton Contest Picks Week 1
Bears +6.5
Browns +8.5
Jaguars +5
Vikings -3
Washington -1
Survivor Pick: Bills
YTD 0-0
-Lou
2017 NFL Over Unders – Lou
My 5 vs. Pat. Most of these were discussed on this week’s podcast w/ Sean
5) Chicago Over 5.5
4) Chargers Over 7.5
3) Rams Over 5.5
2) Raiders Under 10
1) Bungles Under 8.5
CFL Week 11 and 2017 NFL Preview Podcast!
First of all, it’s that time of year for Lou and I to give our preseason NFL thoughts! We don’t give a Super Bowl pick this year because who the fuck knows, right? (Well, the Pats should win it all…….). We also give the Week 1 leans we have this week (and I’ll post my picks later in the week).
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/mc-afc-2017
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miracle-cover-nfc-2017-preview-and-week-1-leans
And here are my CFL and CFL DFS leans for the week:
MTL/BC Under 50 (-110)
TEASER:
EDM +6.5 and OTT/HAM Over 53.5
College FB Holiday Plays
Went .500 on Saturday. Couple more plays for holiday weekend…
W Virginia (+5) @ Va Tech (n) WVU has a “havoc-loving” DC as well as 2 very capable safeties, which would seem to spell trouble for opposing teams with an inexperienced QB. Que redshirt freshman Josh Jackson.
Tennessee @ Ga Tech (+3) (n) Ga Tech had more 4 Star recruits this year than in the last 4 or 5 years combined. Positive trajectory. Tennessee meanwhile loses a boatload of talent this year, which should make life difficult for Butch Davis at the onset.
Week 1 NCAAF
Mostly underdogs. I wasnt going to touch the Nevada/Northwestern O/U but it has gone up something like 9 points since it opened.
Bowling Green +17 @ Mich St Spartys in jail
Wyoming +12 @ Iowa Josh Allen introduced to America
California +13 @ UNC Cal’s offense is based on creating one-on-one match-ups. It apparently thrives in some cases but fails miserably when the opposing D has skill players that win individual battles. UNC’s defense is supposed to be improved but we are banking on them still being a lower tier D
Troy +9.5 @ Boise St According to RotoWorld, Troy “houses one of the most prolific offenses in the Group of 5 behind QB Brandon Silvers and RB Jordan Chunn.” RoWo adds the offense has “as much stability as any in the nation.”
Ga Southern @ Auburn -33.5 Auburn’s Nat’l Champ odds have gone from roughly 50:1 to 20:1 in recent weeks
Arkansas St +14.5 @ Nebraska DE Rolland-Jones goes to town as Nebraska’s weak WR corp fails to get open in time
Vandy @ MTSU +3.5 Excellent WR corp wins against Mason’s very capable D.
Nevada @ Northwestern Under 61
College FB Stuff
Over/Unders.
There are some teams to focus on throughout this year.
The Good – OK St (9), Auburn (8.5), Miami FL(9)
AND
The Interesting – ASU (5), Kansas (3), Mich St (6.5), Miss St (5.5), Nebraska (7), Ole Miss (5.5), Oregon St (5.5)
Notice I am posting this after the season has already started for a few teams. I am getting these numbers from a website entitled “Last Minute College Football Team Wins.” This is me screaming at a bunch of horses starting out from the gate “WAIT! COME BACK! DO ANY OF YOU HAVE MEDICAL CONDITIONS?!?!”
The offenses for Oklahoma St and Auburn should be very good. Auburn has Baylor transfer Stidham who many believe will be the difference maker to put Auburn back in the SEC Champ conversation. Miami allowed just 18.5 points per game last season, and they may well be better in 2017…all 8 defenders who recorded at least six TFL and two sacks last season return. Just one bet from this group. Miami FL (over 9)
Did you know there is one team in college football that has had the worst passing D in the country two years in a row? ASU should be in for a lot of shoot-outs, former 5Star QB Blake Barnett transfers in. We are too late to bet on them but a 3 or 4 win season sounds believable, and we will bet accordingly ATS, lot of high scoring, non-covers like last night’s game. I am sure things have improved since, but as of mid May ASU had ZERO recruit commitments for 2018. This looks like a program with a bad trajectory. Speaking of bad trajectories, everybody is getting arrested and/or suspended at Mich St. We will take Mich St (under 6.5)
Kansas @ 3 is insanely tempting. Great DLine stuff, their new OC was co-OC @ TCU during their renaissance. But I think ultimately we are just going to bet them on specific match-ups. They lose a ton of talent in secondary. Bill Connelly notes “massive turnover in the secondary is the strongest predictor of defensive regression.” Nevertheless expect to see Kansas as a pick frequently ATS.
One of the horses I was screaming at is Oregon St, too late to do anything with them but expect them to get better as the year goes on. The “upstart Beavers suddenly have depth at multiple positions” as RotoWorld points out. They lost a bunch of close coin flip games last year, RB Nall could be a beast this year. We will have bets with them moving forward.
Not much insight into Nebraska except they seem quite thin @ WR. This was before Keyshawn Jr was busted for weed. They had a very late decommit who wound up going to Wash St. They also lose a very good, experienced corner Chris Jones due to surgery. Nebraska (under 7)
Who the Hell knows what Ole Miss will do. Shea Patterson should put up great numbers and I would lean towards their over, similar situation with Miss St. Everything you read is positive. New DC is a guy with consistent top20 Defenses in the past when @ Louisville and UGA. A quote regarding their LB Green, “(Green) won’t just take a starting role because of his age, he’s earning it with his play.” Good stuff. Miss St (over 5.5)
Mayweather vs McGregor
The shitshow is finally here. I wish I could bet the over on when the fight actually starts……these things usually take forever to actually start it probably goes past 11:30pm on the East Coast.
As for the fight itself……as much as these two say they will try and KO each other like savages….I think both will actually cancel each other out for a bit while they figure out each other’s patterns. Floyd is older but wiser, and I think he’ll dance and hold and stall for the first 4 rounds at least, and try to see how Conor handles “deep water”. I think this fight will go the same way Hatton vs Floyd did, minus the possibility of a KO because Conor is a better athlete than Hatton and Floyd doesn’t have the power that he did in 2006 at age 40. And considering Floyd Round Overs have made money for us (and hopefully for you!), I am gonna stay with that plan.
So what I like for tonight:
Mayweather vs McGregor Over Rounds 9.5 +140
And as for the pick:
Mayweather -450
I just don’t think Floyd loses a decision in Vegas, even if Conor knocks him down. I can also see Conor quitting on the stool or maybe getting caught in the 11th or 12th round…and since he hasn’t even been in a boxing match before, it’s why I am apprehensive to take the distance prop at +215. But Floyd is so technical and does such a great job of staying out of the way of punches (there will be some great swing and miss gifs for this fight), I just don’t see these guys having this all out slug fest. Maybe a “hug fest” perhaps, as both Conor and Floyd will want to stay out of “hook” range and use the clinch to catch breath and slow things down.
As for 3 hedge props:
Conor McGregor wins in first 2 rounds +700
Conor McGregor wins in 3-4 rounds +700
Floyd Mayweather wins in 11-12 rounds +1200
